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Hedging the NBA Finals?

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by UKFanatic, May 31, 2014.

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  1. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    So back in January I bet the Spurs at 5 to 1 to win it all. Normally I don't hedge, but I am seriously considering it this time. Any thoughts?

    Parker may be hurt, but he was banged up for games 4 thru 7 last year. Also, last year, Manu wasn't near 100% and he is this year.

    on the other hand, Wade wasn't near 100% last year and he is this year. Last year, the Spurs had a four game sweep in the conf finals and plenty of rest before facing the Heat. And Miami was coming off a war against Indy.

    I am entirely indecisive. I will be in vegas after game 1, so I can wait and check the series price on the Heat at that point (now I'm really hoping the Spurs win game 1!). But I should easily be able to get a price that would hedge a guaranteed, albeit small win. Last year, I had the same chance (Spurs at +500), let it ride, and every bball fan knows what happened....
     
  2. RiddickBull

    RiddickBull VIP Whale

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    I just finished watching the game also.

    The Spurs always have a chance. It will be a tough series. I think the Heat will win again with the level James and Wade are playing. CB also got on a good streak during the Indy series. Stopping Duncan will be the biggest problem for the Heat.

    Taking the Spurs at +500 is good odds.
     
  3. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Low-Roller

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    Heat in 5
     
  4. OhioStateAlum

    OhioStateAlum Low-Roller

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    Tough series to call. On sports bets I typically always take the guaranteed money when I can. But in situations like this, it all depends what the payoff would mean to you. It's a coin-flip series
     
  5. etm117

    etm117 Low-Roller

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    I'm with rooster42000 here. If a really large bet then I would almost definitely hedge for the reasons in the OPs original post. If a smaller bet, I personally would let it ride and have some fun rooting for old man Duncan. :beer:
     
  6. exds

    exds Low-Roller

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    Generally speaking, one of the best teams in basketball vs one of the best players. I feel Manu messed it up last year and was surprised he wasn't traded, but he is playing better this post season. I still hold my breath when he has the ball. Health will be the unknown, but all things equal I give the Spurs a 52/48 edge over the Heat because of the home court. But, very close in team, very close in talent, very close in coaching, with slight edges either way. But when intelligent team play which does not change when you sub players is constantly executed and the pressure is constantly applied, that is hard to beat. Basketball played like it should. Individual play is exciting to watch, but team play is beautiful to watch.
     
  7. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Manu was a free agent after the season. And the spurs knew he was playing hurt. The Parker injury is what scares me this year. if he were 100%, I wouldn't even think about hedging
     
  8. exds

    exds Low-Roller

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    I agree with this as Parker is a key player in running the team the way Pop would like. The way I see it, the other unknown is how much help Labron will get from the role players. If Wade, Allen or Bosh or anyone else has a big game then I think Miami is almost unbeatable. Miami struggles at times because they don't always show up.
     
  9. feeltheheat

    feeltheheat Low-Roller

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    i had heat season tickets and i can tell you they want to win at home.
    since lebron came to miami i felt, that the team watched out for STH. its strange, but it felt that way.
    remember 2011/2012 playoffs. first round 3 home games vs NYG, 2nd round 3 home games vs pacers, ECF 4 home games vs celtics (huge resell value in game 5 and 7), NBAF 3 home games (won championship at last possible home game; huge resell value).
    so for me it's heat at last possible home game. that would be game 5.
    i told my wife that they will go minimum 5 vs brooklyn and 6 vs pacers, not because the other teams are that good, but because the extra home game.
    the nba is a big $how and this miami heat team controls it!!!
    btw, i sold my STH account.
    with that being said: G O - S P U R S !!!
     
  10. exds

    exds Low-Roller

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    Team - 1
    Superstar - 0

    Pop better bring his own food, water and women with them when the spurs go to Miami, and keep it under lock and key. Sickness, food poisoning in miami? I'll take that bet.


    Heat? Rubbish. Eric should have rested James more, and force liquids down his throat! But he can't afford too. At this level! Getting paid that much! Getting stopped by cramps? CRAMPS!? I don't care about no history of cramps. Trainers or the coach can't fiqure this out yet? Then too bad. It wasn't just hot around James.
     
  11. feeltheheat

    feeltheheat Low-Roller

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    i didnt know that the changed the format of the finals this year. so heat in 6 (not in 5).
    with that being said: G O - S P U R S !!!
     
  12. DeMoN2318

    DeMoN2318 The DERS

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    Whats the new format?
     
  13. Fafa2e

    Fafa2e Low-Roller

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    OK! First let me qualify this by saying I am a Heat fan. (Note: I am not a bandwagon fan as it seems that everyone seems to claim that all Heat fans are. I have been a Heat fan since their inception.)

    Based on objective betting considerations, I definitely would not hedge your bet now that the Spurs are up 1-0 in the series. Looking at it from a Heat fan perspective, I am still quite hopeful in the Heat's chances of taking this series. Before LeBron started having the cramping problems, the Heat were up by 7 with about 6 or 7 minutes to go; however, once LeBron went out of the game the Heat just totally and embarrassingly collapsed. I believe that the Spurs were 14 of 16 in the 4th quarter and shot over 58% overall, I would not expect them to maintain that high of a shooting percentage throughout the finals. Countering that I also do not expect the Spurs to turn the ball over as much as they did in Game 1.

    GO HEAT!
     
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  14. gguerra

    gguerra Low-Roller

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    There's one factor that everyone failed to mention. The Spurs want revenge and Duncan really want's one last championship before he retires. That and the fact the Spurs have the home court advantage makes me lean towards the spurs. Not only that, I am from Texas and naturally I would go with the Spurs. I was watching a piece on the Jimmy Kimmel show before game one and he mentioned that according to a nationwide poll, every state in the country (except Florida) wants the Spurs to win. Not sure that it's true. So.. GO SPURS!
     
  15. RC

    RC Low-Roller

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    2 2 1 1 1
     
  16. Rush

    Rush High-Roller

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    No need to hedge, until you have to. Right now you have a 1-0 lead. The only time I would hedge, is when I was facing elimination.
     
  17. exds

    exds Low-Roller

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    Team - 1
    Superstar - 1

    Close game as expected, but Miami was handed this game with four, FOUR straight missed freethrows, FREETHROWS! Guess the spurs felt badly about poor king James cramp problems.
     
  18. feeltheheat

    feeltheheat Low-Roller

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    primetime game with huge ratings. as I expected, heat won this one.
    next games:
    @heat win heat
    @heat win heat
    @spurs win spurs (only to get the last possible home game for miami)
    @heat win heat - over -
     
  19. exds

    exds Low-Roller

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    Spurs take one in Miami and go home even. They both defend home court and the series ends in San Antonio with the Spurs with a 52/48 edge. Of course barring any illness, injury or suspension, etc.
     
  20. Fafa2e

    Fafa2e Low-Roller

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    I think that we are in for 5 more close games. I hope that the Heat can take it in 6, but I expect this series to be decided in Game 7 in San Antonio, which will be tough for the Heat to win.

    Go Heat!
     
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