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Table Games Hedging the Fire Bet in Craps - HELP NEEDED

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by DonnyC, May 23, 2014.

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  1. DonnyC

    DonnyC VIP Whale

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    Hey all,

    I understand what hedging is...and I know that some are for it and some are against it.

    But in the Fire Bet in Craps it seems like there is a time that would make sense to hedge that bet.

    The last 2 things I want to do are to be at a craps table with not enough cash to actually make the hedge, and make a LARGE bet that I think is the hedge bet, actually miss-bet and loose that large amount.


    Can someone please explain when it makes sense to hedge the Fire Bet, how much it will cost me and if casinos actually allow it?


    Thanks.
     
  2. hillwood24

    hillwood24 High-Roller

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    Not really knowing anything about the Fire Bet, I'm gonna try and answer this based purely on the mathematics behind it.

    The purpose of hedging is to guarantee that any outcome results in a profit, correct? So you'd only want to hedge when you're one decision away from winning the bet. In a fire bet, I think you have to make multiple points. If you've made a bunch of points and you're on the very last one, you'd want to hedge after the "payoff" point is established. And you'd hedge, in my opinion, by laying that point number.

    So lets say you've already hit four points (5,6,8,and 10) and you just established a 4 on the come out roll. If hitting a 4 again will result in a payoff of the fire bet, now is the time to hedge. If you lay the 4, you will get paid off on any 7. So a 7 results in a win on the lay bet, but a 4 results in a win on the fire bet. Regardless of the decision (4 or 7), you'll get paid.

    So you'll just have to do the quick math to figure out exactly how much to lay to try and get the payoff numbers fairly equal while still maintaining profitability on both sides.

    I hope this makes sense.
     
  3. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    seems like most of the Hedge Bets would be one roll high-house advantage side bets.

    For example, I was at NYNY and we had hit the all-small, and were a #12 from the all-tall and the all. (I had $5 bet on each).

    So I needed a #12 to hit to win 176 X $5. I don't believe there is any way to Hedge that except betting a large Any 7 bet on each roll, which wouldn't really make any sense as its a one-roll bet (at least I think it is, I've never bet it).

    Would be very curious to hear any legit hedges for when you are one number from that big hit!
     
  4. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the best way of protecting against a shooter from crapping out on a certain number is to lay that number. That seems to be the only logical hedge for a fire bet.

    You could place a Don't bet down but then you have no way of knowing if the next point will be a point the shooter needs to make to complete the fire bet. You could pick the Don't bet up after the point is established, but you're still susceptible to losing the Don't bet on the come out roll. You could lose several of those bets before the point was one that completed the fire bet.

    Therefore I would simply the lay the established point if it completed the fire bet. If the shooter craps out before he hits the point, you win the lay bet. If he completes the fire bet, you lose the lay but win the fire bet.

    If the shooter is going for his 4th point, I wouldn't lay more than 10x the size of my fire bet. If he's going for his 5th number, I wouldn't lay more than 100x my fire bet (you've already cost yourself 10x your lay bet). If it happens to get the 6th point, lay it for around 300x the size of your fire bet (you've already lost 110x the size of your fire bet).

    The 5th and 6th points are the only ones I'd be tempted to hedge. But, I probably wouldn't do this at all. You also might be up against table maximums if you're on the 6th point.
     
  5. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    There's no way to cleanly hedge this without subjecting your bet to losing and still not winning your "all" bet.

    You could hedge the same way as described above, but the point could come up and you could still be waiting for the 12. If the number was a point number, you could use the strategy I described above. Though I've never laid a number other than the 4 and 10, I'm pretty sure the strategy is valid.

    For your situation, I think I would sit back and hope for the best rather than chasing the win.
     
  6. jhpa

    jhpa High-Roller

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    There have been several other threads on this board about the fire bet and hedging.

    There are two schools of thought:

    1) Once the fifth point is made and the sixth point is set, you should lay the sixth point. At this point, you are already guaranteed the payout of the five point win - which is usually $250 for each dollar bet. So lets assume you have $1 on the firebet, you already have $250 payout guaranteed. If the sixth point is made, you would get a $1000 payout (so the sixth point is worth an incremental $750.)

    If you were to lay the sixth point, you will either win the lay bet (and retain your lay bet) or win the additional $750 and lose the lay bet. The payout of the lay bet does vary by the point you are going for, but if you lay the 6, you would win $5 for every $7 bet. So if you lay the 6 for $434, and the 7 comes, you would win $310 . But if the 6 is rolled, you win $750 and lose $434 for a net of $316.

    So it looks like you would need to lay about 60% of the incremental win to break even if the sixth point is a 6 or an 8. And if that last number is a 4 or a 10, you would need to lay 70% of the incremental win. The 5 and 9 are somewhere in between.

    2) Other people say not to lay the sixth point. In this scenario, you either walk away with $250 or - with luck - walk away with $1000. Either way, it is a huge return on the $1 investment.

    I do not see any reason to do a "don't pass" bet once the fifth point is made. If appoint is set which is not the sixth point, it does not affect the firebet. And if that duplicate point is made, it adds no value to your firebet and all you have done is lost the don't pass bet.
     
  7. woodsie

    woodsie High-Roller

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    For what it's worth, by the time you are even in a position to hedge a 5 or 6 point Firefox win, you probably will have made so much that you won't be sweating it anyway.

    I got my first $250 fire bet win on my last trip but I had already made $2500 on the roll at that point so I wasn't sweating the $250.

    But, if you are sweating it, the first response to this thread already nailed it. You simply lay the point you need to get that next level and more or less cut you win in half.

    I'd rather go for the big win myself. If you are gambling with stress money, you shouldn't be gambling. Personal opinion only.
     
  8. DeMoN2318

    DeMoN2318 The DERS

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  9. jhpa

    jhpa High-Roller

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    Not necessarily...

    I rolled a six point firebet at Parx Casino in Philly about 2 years ago. It only took me about 35 minutes. I was pressing my bets with the usual progression. The "problem" was I was setting and making the points so fast, I did not have much time to get my progressions up. I hit two buckshots and only one number did I set and make twice.

    When I set the last number (a nine) I only was up about $700. I took all the greens in my stack and layed the nine for $400. Lost the lay bet, but still cashed on a $5 bet for $5000 and $1 for the dealers.

    Looking back on it, I would not lay the last point. Gotta go for it when you have the chance.
     
  10. Hogman

    Hogman VIP Whale

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    I applaud your optimism!! :thumbsup:
     
    First Trip 2017
  11. DonnyC

    DonnyC VIP Whale

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    I'm not sure that I would have made the money - with a hot shooter.

    You don't know if it is a hot shooter until he/she 7's out. So I don't usually put out a lot of come bets.

    I like to bet 6 & 8...which rarely allows me to capitalize on a hot shooter - but I also don't loose as much and a bad session or rolls.

    I assume you bet come rolls? what is the best way to approach that?
     
  12. jhpa

    jhpa High-Roller

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    First of all, if someone has set and made 2 or 3 points, you can pretty much call him a "hot shooter. If the shooter has made a fourth or fifth one, and you still don't know if he is a hot shooter, you should go back to playing slot machines.

    Even if you are only playing the 6 and 8 - along with the pass lines with single odds, you an still make money on a hot shooter. The not so secret secret is to press you bets - slowly - after you have made your money back. For example, if you have the 6 and 8 for $12 each, collect the first two winner. After that, go "up a unit". You will continue to add to your rack while you are building your investment. If you truly have a "hot shooter" these will be hitting one out of every 4 or 5 rolls. By the time the shooter is rolling for his sixth firebet point, you could have each up to $60 or more.

    As for cum bets, I play them sometimes, but remember they make only even money on the flat bet - you need to put down odds to get the higher payouts. The classic way to play come bets is to start with a pass line bet with odds and then add two come bets with odds. After each one wins, set up another come bet. But most people who play this way play more than single odds. And with multiple odds, it can get expensive quick if you don't have much luck.

    With the kind of "hot shooter" we are talking about - making 5 or 6 points on the firebet - you can make money on almost any approach. (Other than "don't betting"). The important thing is to re-invest some (not all) of each winner. That would mean either increasing place bets or adding to odds if you are a come better.
     
  13. DonnyC

    DonnyC VIP Whale

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    Thanks for the insight on come betting.
     
  14. Terry Benedict

    Terry Benedict VIP Whale

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    "2) Other people say not to lay the sixth point. In this scenario, you either walk away with $250 or - with luck - walk away with $1000. Either way, it is a huge return on the $1 investment."

    I agree with this. I don't think I would regret not hedging if I "only" walked away with $250-1.
     
  15. vegasfan2010

    vegasfan2010 Tourist

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    I think if you hedge it with a bet small enough to get 2/3 of the win would be good.
    Winning still has its reward, but loosing does not sting as much.
     
  16. DonnyC

    DonnyC VIP Whale

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    I'm just questioning the math ass I try to get a hold of this.
     
  17. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    I think you might both be wrong.

    Wizard of Odds says the fire bet pay 999 to 1. So, you'd win $999 (and get your dollar back).

    Read the OPs post again. He's stating that you're already a guaranteed winner of $250. So, he's saying the 6th point is only worth an additional $750.

    The sentence before your red highlighted sentence is the one that's really incorrect in that context. The lay bet on the 6 would have to be divisible by 6. Not by 7. It pays true odds (6 to 5) and you're charged a 5% vig on it. And, even it were the opposite of a place bet (place to lose) it wouldn't pay 7 to 5 as his calculation does.

    In addition, he forgot to add the win for the 5 points made to his $310, which would have made it (albeit still incorrect since he miscalculated the odds) $560.

    Conclusion: His math is all messed up.
     
  18. jhpa

    jhpa High-Roller

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    Yep- my math is all messed up. One of the reasons I never play the don't is I have trouble keeping the odds straight. And with lay bets, you DO have to include the commission.

    Bottom line, though, is the question "how much do you need to lay against the point to hedge the firecet bet". I think the correct approximate answer is somewhere between 55% and 60 % of the amount of the additional win for the 6th point. If my corrected math works, trying to make a 6 (or 8). you could lay $420. If the 7 is rolled, you get paid $336. If the point is made, you would win $750 but lose the $420 which nets almost the same ($330).

    If my corrected math is off, it is only off by a couple of bucks one way or another.
     
  19. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    You're math is still wrong.

    If you laid $420, the projected win is $350 and therefore you'd owe about $17 on the win (the round in favor of the player). So, the net would be $333.

    On a 7 you win $333 + $249 (5 points made) = $679.
    On the point made you win $999 (6 points made) - $420 = $579.

    So, for your example, the better outcome would be the shooter sevens out. You would net $100 more in that case.
     
  20. BackInVegas

    BackInVegas VIP Whale

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    I see the fire bet as a fun bet only. I saw it hit twice in a trip to Council Bluffs in early May 2014(25 bucks each time) and I only saw it hit once in Las Vegas for $250.00 this last trip.

    For those that wonder, there are six points (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10). A fire bet is when you hit four or more of those points before you seven out on your roll. A rare thing indeed.

    Four points = 25 to one payoff. A one dollar bet = 25 dollars
    Five points = 250 to one payoff. A one dollar bet = 250 dollars, a five dollar bet = $1,250
    six points = 1000 to one payoff. A one dollar bet = $1,000 dollars, five dollar bet = $5,000


    A good way to get the dealers excited.

    I always make a fire bet and a dealer bet. Usually one buck, but sometimes five bucks.

    My motto, never sweat a fire bet, but always make a fire bet for the dealers.
     
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