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golf bets

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by kitson, Feb 11, 2014.

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  1. kitson

    kitson VIP Whale

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    a rare occasion, i will be in town tomorrow, so can get a bet or two in on the golf tournament, and still be around on sunday to cash the ticket! optimism!

    would love to hear anyone's opinion on who might be a good bet with some nice odds. the hot guy of the moment probably will not have playable odds, though the stagger home at pebble might help. hunter mahan did not seem healthy enough mentally to come back and win this week.

    dustin johnson? someone who historically plays the california early tournaments tough...remembering mark o'meara back in the day, or was that calcavechia? kinda have not kept track so good the last few years, so welcome any help i can get.
     
  2. ken2v

    ken2v This Space For Rent

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    G, you're thinking of Mark O'Meara, who won five Crosby Clambakes. DJ also has an eye for Pebble, with two wins, Sunday's second and his seeming Open victory which he pissed away early that last day. Calc had three wins in the Phoenix Open, and a few others out west.

    I had Kaymer the year he won the PGA … except I had him to win the Masters. lol

    I'm not the guy you want tendering this type of advice!
     
  3. GMS

    GMS Low-Roller

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    I'm just a fan, not a bettor. But:

    I think Graham Delaet has a decent shot at breaking through. Bovada has him at 20-1, not too bad.

    Decent longshot might be Kevin Na at 50-1. He looked very good at Pebble.
     
  4. bubbakitty

    bubbakitty native Texan; born and bred.

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    Of some interest are the daily bets as to who will shoot lower between two players on that 18....usually -110 or so unless it is lopsided....but generally fairly even prior to t-off. You can bet on Thursday and Friday for sure....not so sure about final two rounds or where to find match-ups other than the casino...good luck!!
     
    1st Super Bowl DT...Panthers / Browns no doubt
  5. kitson

    kitson VIP Whale

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    thanks, guys. ken, you are way too modest, probably have forgotten more than most of us ever knew.

    our tourney went off the air on our local feed, had to watch the end on golf channel, when i say na i then knew why it had run over time.

    keep it coming, and thanks again.
     
  6. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

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    There is great value plays in golf betting. Stay away from the favorites. They offer little value. There is so much talent on the PGA tour (There's 20-25 guys who would have dominated the tour if they had played in the late 90's/early 2000s, if Tiger were removed from the equation of course). I usually won't take anyone who is under 20/1 and prefer 25+/1. Lots of talented players in that 25-60/1 range.

    The great thing about golf, especially majors, is that the average Joe only knows Phil, Rory, and Tiger, and they overvalue their odds. Meanwhile guys like Kuchar, Simpson, Day, both Johnsons, Snedeker, Mahan, etc. will all be going off at 20+ odds. That's where the value is. In non majors it gets even better with some of the unknown players being able to breakthrough. Guys like Horschel, Walker, Points, Spieth (Last year), Henley, etc. will give you 75+.

    ETA: I don't have any specific plays for you because I let the odds dictate my plays. I do occasionally have a guy I will bet regardless of the payout as long as it's reasonable, and there are some guys I won't touch no matter what. Personally I think Na is a headcase, so he makes me pretty wary.
     
  7. kps

    kps High-Roller

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  8. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

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  9. Nevada Kid

    Nevada Kid VIP Whale

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    Not sure if Pat Perez is in the field or not, but he's been in the hunt the last couple tourneys and I bet he would be a big payoff.
     
  10. Nevada Kid

    Nevada Kid VIP Whale

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    Just checked it out Perez is 45/1, Kutcher has been in the hunt lately too at 28/1.
     
  11. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

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    That's exactly what I'm talking about. Kuchar is one of the 5 best players on tour IMO, and he's at 28/1 in an average field? Yes Please!
     
  12. Malibugolfer

    Malibugolfer High-Roller

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    "There is great value plays in golf betting."
    I'm sure there is but, for the life of me and as one who follows the players very carefully, it's a crap shoot. So many good players now. Look at Jimmy Walker. Out of nowhere and he wins 3 times?? How?
    I do know Riv will play fast and hard. Really warm for this time of year.
     
  13. ken2v

    ken2v This Space For Rent

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    And that's the thing with golf. Tiger is Snead+ when it comes to horses for courses, but he still "loses" more than he wins.

    Riviera this week: And how much chatter is there about Couples and this track? But isn't he something like 2-30 there?

    Anyone call Jimmy Walker? Sure, he's been trending well, but 0 for 180whatever and now 3 of the last 8?

    I don't sports bet much if at all, so I'm not into this stuff for the same reason as you guys. There's a caste of players like Kooch who seem to go off with nice odds and at least a reasonable expectation that they can close the deal, yet it remains oh so fickle. Guess that's why it's called gambling and handicapping and why it can get the juices flowing.

    It's tangential, but the thing I'd like to see stop is the whole "next best" crap. Nailing a major early on is amazing, but it's not predictive, even with another few regular wins. "Best" players in that hierarchy between the still-playing greats and the tour mass? I'd say the two Johnsons. A bunter and a head case.
     
  14. chonglosaxon

    chonglosaxon MIA

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    The course is a long hitters course. Play the bombers. I like Delaet here at good odds.
     
  15. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

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    I have Palmer at 75/1 for 20 and Henley at 250/1 for 10. Really need Rory to tank here...
     
  16. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

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    Woo hoo! Nice little boost to the bankroll for my Vegas trip. Was really nervous on 18 (the first time) when Rory stuck it to 15ft from 245 out. Palmer should have won it by three strokes but choked big time on the last three holes. Worked out to an extra grand for me though in the end!
     
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