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Table Games gambling patterns, anyone?

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by lmondun, Sep 13, 2012.

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  1. lmondun

    lmondun Low-Roller

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    I'm sure it's just my degenerate gambler brain trying to create order despite the inherent randomness of gambling luck, but, logic be damned, I could swear the following to be true:

    Pattern 1: I seem to always have a run of good luck early in the year, but then it goes really bad by Labor Day and stays awful till New Years.
    Gambler's rationale: Maybe casinos loosen the slots/vp early in the fiscal year, when their budgets are flush, then tighten up as the year goes on?

    Pattern 2: My luck always seems to be the worst at the beginning of a gambling trip, then improves as time goes on. My biggest hits are almost always near the end.
    Gambler's rationale: It takes me a day or two to find the "hot" machines -- and to learn to avoid the cold ones.

    Anyone else have similar experiences or notice their own patterns of gambling luck? (IMO, you have to have a rationale for it to be a pattern and not just a superstition.)
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2012
  2. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    how i feel going into a trip has a huge bearing on how my "luck" runs. sometimes i just have a bad feeling about a trip and those are always horrible trips. also if i've been fighting with my wife right before the trip, those are always terrible. other times i have a great feeling about a trip and i tend to run well. i think in a lot of ways you create your own luck and the better place you are in your mind about the whole trip, the luckier you will be.
     
  3. Scahom1

    Scahom1 Tourist

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    I agree. If I am in a bad mood, I don't gamble. But sometimes, you plan a trip so far in advance that you can't help when you run into problems at work, at home, etc, and you try your best to ignore them while on vacation, but I sometimes have a hard time doing so, and it seems to make sure I lose my shirt at the casino!

    OP, I also seem to do very well at the beginning of the year, have a string of bad luck in the Summer, then pick up again in the Fall and Winter. Then again, this past NYE was the best gambling night I ever had (could not lose at the Craps table!), so it would all be downhill from there.
     
  4. lmondun

    lmondun Low-Roller

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    Yes, I can see that a positive outlook might be particularly valuable for table players. I don't play poker, but would have to think frame of mind is a major factor there. (Plus stamina, for those who play mega-tournaments.)
     
  5. JillyFromPhilly

    JillyFromPhilly Tourist

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    The first session or two the first day of a trip usually [though not always] seems to set the tone for the trip. Up big first day, usually leave a winner, down big first day, usually leave a loser, at or close to even first day, usually at or close to even at the end.

    But, there have been a few trips here or there where I've either rallied from early losses back to even or even up - and probably more than a few where I started out up big, the luck turned & I gave it all back [and sometimes, even went back into the red].

    But generally, the first session/day rule seems to happen most often.
     
  6. LV_Bound

    LV_Bound VIP Whale

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    Last trip I had a day where I couldn't lose. It was a great feeling.
    The next day was really bad as I couldn't win. The day just didn't seem right and actually spent a lot of time walking the strip instead of gambling.
     
  7. WrongWayWade

    WrongWayWade VIP Whale

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    Your 'gamblers rationales' aren't really useful or accurate. They are just attempt by your brain to impose patterns on something that has no pattern. On your second it is just as easy to get several big hits on the first day and then nothing at the end ("I used up all the good mojo in the machines at the start"?!?).

    Casinos do not loosen or tighten the slots on a weekly, monthly, daily or seasonal basis. I would guess 99% of all machines are set to a particular payback percentage when they are installed and never touched until that machine is retired. As the mix of machines is changed over time, the average payback might be going down (or up), but that is only because they are choosing different machines with different paybacks to replace the ones that are removed.

    Of course, you can track the changes of VP paybacks as they are visible to the players. The casino can't hide anything on VP.
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2012
  8. Tubbs

    Tubbs High-Roller

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    The only thing I can almost guarantee is that my first session at the tables will be a loser. I might even skip the first session next trip and go straight to the second. :wink
     
  9. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    3 of my last four trips I have been crushed for a large portion of my bankroll early, and on 3 different games (VP, BJ, then craps), so I have this feeling that it's a pattern.

    But what I've learned is that if I focus on my non gambling activities and my wife, I have a much better time, regardless of how the dice/cards are falling.
     
  10. lmondun

    lmondun Low-Roller

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    yeah, I put in the "gambler's rationale" part to represent my mind's feeble attempt to explain the perceived patterns even though I logically realize these rationales could not be true. hope it didn't seem like I was putting them forth as an actual fact/belief. what's most interesting to me is how strongly our minds strive for order even when facing a system that is built around disorder.
     
  11. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

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    While I don't necessarily disagree, there is some merit to some of these posts. For instance, it's tough to have a winning trip if you get smacked hard in the first day or two, for several reasons. First, it's obviously tougher to get ahead when you dig yourself a hole right at the start. Secondly, your risk of ruin is increased dramatically when you take a beating right away. Third, in my experience (and probably many others), when I'm getting my ass kicked, I tend to scale back my bets a bit, and I'm less likely to press my bets or at least not as much. That means that when/if I do hit that hot streak, I'm going to win much less than I would have if I were pressing like I do when I'm up or even.
     
  12. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    All true. But I think if it went the other way, there would be biases as well (although I've never gotten way up early, so I wouldn't know :cry:) But say you got ahead in the first two hours by half your bankroll. Would you have the discipline to not overpress? Would you sit on the win? I think there's a likelihood that something would change in your patterns if you'd greatly reduced your risk of ruin.
     
  13. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

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    Personally for me, I would probably press my bets harder because I was up. HOWEVER, I would probably back off that once it started to cool off.

    For instance if I was up 2.5k after the first day on a 5k bankroll, I would probably start Day 2 off pretty aggressively. But if I blew through 1.5-2k of that in a couple hours I would go into the pattern I discussed above. For me being up big and giving all or most of it back stings just as much as losing that amount from my initial bankroll.
     
  14. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    That's my theoretical plan if I ever get up like that early (I have about the same BR, usually.) For example, playing craps, if a shooter hits two points I always press the third. If I'm way down, I might barely press...like 25, 25, 30, 40, 50. If I'm way up, it would probably be 25, 25, 50, 75, 100.
     
  15. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    honestly that human nature is the reason most people lose money at the casino. when they're down early, they get scared and don't want to press. so when they finally hit that good streak, they don't make as much as they lost on the bad streaks and they still lose money. when they're up early, they think of it as playing with the "casino's money" and so they press to try to make a big winner and a bad streak hits and they lose all their winnings back and sometimes more.

    if it's really all about the money for you, when you finally hit a good streak after being down early, you press hard and hope the good streak continues long enough for you to get even. one good session can get you even after an entire bad trip. if not, oh well you were already down so what's the difference? when you're up early, you tighten down to preserve the win. if you continue to hit good streaks, maybe you don't make as much as you could have, but you're still winning so what's the difference? but if you hit a bad streak, you're locked in and you don't give it back. you don't need to have even a single great session to make a nice trip winner. a bunch of small session wins with minimal losses at the end of the trip can equal a huge win.
     
  16. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    That's good advice, Shifter. And I'm definitely not a 'house money' guy...once you win it, it's not the house's anymore. For me it's about bankroll preservation if I'm down. If I bet 25, 25, 50 at craps and I bust the third point, I'm going to end up just a little bit ahead for that sequence. If I bet 25, 25, 30 and I bust the last point, I'm going to be quite a bit ahead for that sequence. If I hit the 30, I'm not as far ahead as I would be when I hit the 50, but it's still good.

    At that point it's about trying to get enough money in my pocket so that I can continue to gamble the way I want to gamble for the rest of the trip...not necessarily getting even.

    And when I'm ahead, I'm not starting with a bigger bet...but since I'm already up, 25, 25, 50 means that if I bust the third point, I'm really a tiny bit ahead of even for the sequence, and still up for the trip. I'm not advocating increasing my initial bet size or playing at levels above my norm...just about getting on the gas quicker when it starts to go right.

    And part of it's back to what you said in a different thread about energy. When I'm winning, there's a feeling like it's going to continue. When I'm losing, it's hard to press when you've got that feeling that bad things are going to happen.
     
  17. lmondun

    lmondun Low-Roller

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    mike, glad you're participating in this thread. it was your recent trip report that first got me thinking about how individuals all seem to have their own peculiar patterns in gambling. as I was reading your report, it seemed that you were actually trying to figure out the betting patterns of all your table mates at the blackjack table. if so, are you thinking that their decisions over time could influence your decisions?
     
  18. jamie1983

    jamie1983 Low-Roller

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    I tend to always have bad luck if I gamble the morning I'm leaving. I don't think I've ever gotten up before driving home from Biloxi or flying home from Vegas and had a winning session.
     
  19. JillyFromPhilly

    JillyFromPhilly Tourist

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    I totally think Psychology has to be factored into the outcome - many people [myself included] definitely bet & play more or less aggressively based upon how the trip starts off. As others have said, If I start off losing, I'm a lot less likely to make the big presses or take the big risks because I'm trying to preserve bankroll, which can make getting out of the hole that much harder or even lead to further losses - just like when I'm up, I'm more likely to bet big & make riskier moves, which can pay dividends on a hot streak, making it even hotter, etc.
     
  20. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    Absolutely not. What someone else at the table is doing doesn't influence me in the slightest. But it does interest me and I do pay attention. I go into every session knowing what I intend to do if I get up or down. At BJ, it's almost always flat betting for me. If I feel good about a shoe I might take my two spots at $50 and make it two spots of $75 near the end of the shoe, but that's about as exciting as I get.

    Craps is entirely different. I know what I'm trying to accomplish with the session and bet accordingly. It may be I'm looking for a big win. It may be that I'm trying to just book table time and come out a little ahead. But regardless, based on my bankroll and where I am in the trip, I've usually got a plan. Sometimes I might revise that as I play (like if I bought in for $1000 and find myself with $300 after 15 minutes.)
     
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