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Table Games Gambling, How do you know your on a Heater ?

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by mike mc, Jun 26, 2012.

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  1. mike mc

    mike mc High-Roller

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    So when do you know your on a heater?, seems like my problem is I dont recognize when to up the Ante. I feel I know how the basic stratergy works but dont know when to jump in when the time is right. I play BJ, Pai Gow Let It Ride and a newbie to Craps and next trip will try VP. Any Tips would be nice, I really cant accept I just plain Suck at it :nono:
     
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  2. WrongWayWade

    WrongWayWade VIP Whale

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    There is no way to know that you are 'on a heater' barring card counting at blackjack. (Assuming 'a heater' means you expect success on FUTURE hands.) That's the problem! Many people will raise their bets after getting ahead earlier hoping the good luck continues. This makes some sense because when it does go bad you still have your original stake and can keep playing. Raising your bets after losing just quickens the death of the bankroll and you have to stop playing.

    There are 'systems' that will tell you to raise or lower your bets after winning or losing the previous hand, but these can only re-shape the distribution of your gambling sessions, not give you any additional edge over the game. Systems that tell you to raise your bet after a loss will tend to create many small winning sessions with a few monstrous losing sessions. Systems that have you raise your bet after a win will do the opposite, creating many small losing sessions with a few big winners.

    There is absolutely nothing wrong with flat-betting at a level that you can afford. You can just as easily get ahead this way when the cards/dice fall in your favor.
     
  3. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    No one knows until after the fact. You're not doing anything wrong.
     
  4. acesupmike

    acesupmike Tourist

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    For me...

    Amount of $ lost chasing heaters > Amount of $ won from being on a heater.

    I don't bother anymore.
     
  5. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    If anyone could figure this out, there would be more people driving $100,000 cars in Vegas, and more casinos that looked like Walmarts instead of the palaces they are now.
     
  6. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Not really. If you could tell you were on a streak, so could the casino, so they could just not take your next bet.
     
  7. thecarve

    thecarve Misanthrope

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    Just as everyone else has said, you’re doing nothing wrong. In the long run, you will win/lose the same amount by pressing on “heaters” as you will by flat betting.

    Some folks (like me) are just willing to risk turning a small win into a small loss or break-even by going for the big score. It isn’t right or wrong, it is just the experience some prefer.

    So, if that’s what you’re looking for, just try to raise your bets if/when you feel comfortable. If you’re lucky, your good run will continue and you’ll win big (and you can continue to raise your bets if you are comfortable). If not, you wipe out the win you had. But, as WrongWayWade said, you’ll still have your bankroll mostly intact and you can keep playing at lower stakes.
     
  8. jhpa

    jhpa High-Roller

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    As many have said, by the time you realize there is a hot table, it is already too late.

    So I bet the same way virtually all the time at craps. I consider it re-investing.

    I will start each new shooter with my basic bet - pass line with single odds, three place bets for the minimum. So I have about $50 in play (at a $10 table) and four numbers covered.

    I collect the first two times my bet hits. Any bet. Two place bets, two pass line bets, what ever. So two place bets of the 6 hit, I collect $14 each. When the third one hits, I "up a unit" - so if the $12 place bet on the 6 hits for $14, I collect $8 and increase my bet from $12 to $18. I do this for every hit, always collecting more than I re-invest. When it starts getting higher....maybe the place bet is up to $30 and it hits, I will go to $42...then to $60...then to $90. At some point, I will start covering the other numbers. I also start sliding another nickle chip on to my odds. And I only play the center bets when I am up - in essence, I only bet the center bets with "house money".

    And whenever a shooter sevens out, I start all over again. With the basic bet.

    If the shooter is cold and it is a quick seven out, I lose my original $50 or so. Otherwise, by the time I start re-investing, I have put $35 or more back in my rack. After the fourth hit, I am in the black and have more at least $65 in play. If a shooter rolls for 10 times without the seven, chances are I have $100 profit in my rack and have $150 in play. After that, it can get fun!

    I am new to blackjack but have a similar approach. I bet the minimum, if I win a hand , I add one unit and now bet two units. If that wins, I bet three units, and ride it up until I lose a hand, then go back to the base bet of one unit. I have not had a lot of history with BJ but it seems to make sense to me. I can take advantage of a good run of cards without getting hurt too bad if they turn.
     
  9. Ike

    Ike Low-Roller

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    I can usually tell by how many times I have to use the bathroom, and how difficult it is for me to stagger there. The more I'm winning, the more I bet and the longer I play...thus, the more drinks I have and the drunker I become. I'm pretty sure the amount I win and my BAC have a direct correlation.
     
  10. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    if you want to press when you're winning and have a chance to win big, you just have to have some sort of set pattern. e.g. when you win 2 in a row, you press to X and then 2 more and you press X more, etc, etc. just have a system and then you don't have to worry about it. sometimes it will work, sometimes it won't. but the worst is to sit there flat betting and win 15 in a row or something and you feel like a complete idiot because you should have won 10x as much.
     
  11. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    Actually, the WORST is when you bet progressively higher thinking you are going to jump back on the heater, but you loose 15 in a row. Ouch.
     
  12. LV_Bound

    LV_Bound VIP Whale

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    You only truly know after its all over. :eek:
     
  13. Huddler

    Huddler VIP Whale

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    You might want to ask that Martingale guy. He had this whole thing figured out!
     
  14. JillyFromPhilly

    JillyFromPhilly Tourist

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    ^exactly. My answer was going to be/is "when you look down at some point and realize you now have substantially more money than you did when you sat down"
     
  15. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    actually that philosophy is diametrically opposed to the idea of hot and cold streaks. with a martingale system you never win more than 1 unit. if you win 20 in a row you win 20 units. and if you lose 20 in a row ... well you're broke.
     
  16. mike mc

    mike mc High-Roller

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    ^
    Thats what happens it seems to me all the time, thanks Shifter for the advice for trying to establish a betting pattern to increase the winnings hopefully :rolleyes2:
     
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  17. Groog

    Groog Low-Roller

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    To the original poster, I don't think you can really know when you are on a heater, but you can develop betting strategies that will allow you to take advantage of a heater without even trying to predict one.

    The best way to do that is to invest some time in some practice games online and simulate your bankroll and average bets in different scenarios that allow you to see why you went bust or how many bets you got in or if you get 15 losses in a row how you can minimize actual losses cause IMO recognizing a heater is less important than recognizing a freezer.

    Take craps for example you may have a table of 12 people playing and everybody is cold except the last guy throwing who ends up throwing for an hour, if you are not careful you never even get to that guy to take advantage.

    Sometimes doing small hedges in the beginning can help with that - you minimize wins but also losses and you do that just at the beginning. After you pull down your initial bet you can start a press strategy.
     
  18. Terry Benedict

    Terry Benedict VIP Whale

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    Everyone else is wrong, this guy is right. Time to lock it down.
     
  19. Mr. Politics

    Mr. Politics Low-Roller

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    If the pit bosses who typically roam from table to table in their pits, plant themselves at the table you are playing and watch to ensure everything is on the up and up. That is a sign.
     
  20. Big Tip

    Big Tip VIP Whale

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    It has not happened to me much, but it has happened. It has always been at a blackjack table and realized, "wow, I can't lose". I then pressed it up. But when I did, I set loss limits so I knew when to stop chasing it.

    I have been on hot craps tables, but I never have gotten big. I will just ride the wave with the board I paddled in on. It's strange how I never walk away from a long roll and think about how I should have bet bigger. I have done that lots of times at a blackjack table though.
     
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