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For the NBA Fans..

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by zNaturaL, Mar 28, 2015.

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  1. zNaturaL

    zNaturaL Low-Roller

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    Hey all,

    Going to Vegas in a few days and wanted to make some futures bets, including the NBA which I have absolutely no clue about..

    I thought about putting some cash down on a few longshots just for fun and wanted to see if anyone actually thought these teams have a SLIGHT chance.

    Raptors ~ 60/1
    Blazers ~ 35/1

    Grizzlies ~ 12/1 Not a long shot, but might take them.

    Thoughts? What about Dallas or Houston? As you can tell I have NO clue and will just be doing this for fun!
     
  2. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    If you can still get the Grizz at 12 to 1, that is a very good bet.
     
  3. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Agreed. Outside chance I go to the game on Monday night.
     
  4. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Grizz are one of five teams I believe have a realistic chance to win it all. They were 8 to 1 at both MGM and Caesars books when I was there a week ago. Wish I had found them at 12 to 1!!
     
  5. landsburger

    landsburger Low-Roller

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    Bet on some NFL futures. The NBA season is too far along for any decent long shot bets.

    A couple bucks on Portland wouldn't kill you, but there got some injuries that makes them going far even less likely.

    12-1 isn't bad for the grizzlies. A lot of people like them. I don't, but not a bad bet.

    What is Houston at? I hate them, but if you could get a long odds then maybe.

    What is OKC at?
     
  6. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I disagree slightly. Its not the length of the NBA season that makes it hard to bet longshot futures. Its the fact that they play long series in each round of the playoffs. That makes upsets highly improbable. Its not one and done. Over a seven game series, the better team wins most of the time. There is the rare upset (Denver over Seattle in 94, GS over Dallas a few years ago), but I have been watching the NBA playoffs since 1980 and never recall an underdog (or longshot) even coming close to winning it all.

    I like betting NBA futures, but I usually wait until March. I identify the few teams I believe truly stand a chance of winning it all. Then I usually take the longest or one of the longer odds from that small group of teams. This year, Memphis is one of the four or five teams I handicap with a chance of winning it all. They have the longest odds of those teams. Plus they have more playoff experience than two of the other four teams I looked at (which if you know the NBA, you know no team has won the championship in the past thirty years without significant playoff experience first). Do I think Memphis will win? Probably not. But at 12 to 1, that's an outstanding bet for a team that stands a legitimate shot at winning it all (usually, the teams I handicap with a legitimate shot at winning it all range somewhere between 3 to 1 up to 6 to 1 odds).
     
  7. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    If you think Memphis will make it past the first round or two, then taking them at 12-1 is a good bet because you can always hedge in the later rounds (if they make it) to create a no-lose situation, regardless of whether or not they win it all.
     
  8. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I agree. Right now, they get Dallas in the first round, which is a good matchup for them. After that, it gets harder. Probably Spurs and then Warriors. That's a tough road. If they luck into playing only one of those teams to reach the finals, 12 to 1 looks like a great bet
     
  9. scc31

    scc31 Low-Roller

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    I wouldn't go with Grizz. they got demolished by Cavs and Dubs in the past two games against them and that's with a playoff atmosphere going in. While big man dominates in a 7 game series, I still think they lack the guard play to control the tempo of a game and hit big outside shots to relieve the pressure on Randolph/Gasol.
     
  10. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Disagree about their ability to control tempo. Conley is one of the better guards in the league at that. Besides, they already play one of the slower paces in the league and in the playoffs, everyone slows down. I agree, though, that they will need consistent outside shooting to win and that is not their strength. some games, their true shooting percentage is fine. Other games not so much
     
  11. himay6

    himay6 Tourist

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    Raptors have been on a horrible losing streak recently. They've lost to some very bad teams and are limping into the playoffs. They don't have the size to compete down the stretch and need more experience. But other than that I'd say grizz
     
  12. landsburger

    landsburger Low-Roller

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    Agreed. I didn't say "how long" the season was, I said "how far along" it was. By now you have a pretty good idea of who teams are. Even though you can have some upsets, the better team usually wins over 7 games, making a finals win by a long shot very unlikely.

    I took Golden State early in the year when they were just starting to play well. I think I got 10 or 12-1 (will have to find the ticket). I took the Spurs at the start of the year.

    Not there there's a formula for any of this. I took the Seahawks before the season started and that looked great until... :eek:

    Not sure what the Vegas lines are now, but at somewhere between 6 and 10-1, I'd take the Spurs by a mile over the Memphis bet.
     
  13. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    My bad, I misread your earlier post. I agree about seeing how teams are playing at this stage of the season. And I like the Spurs too. The odds on the Spurs (as of a week ago) was 5 to 1. I went with Memphis because of the better odds. But I spent a fair amount of time debating between the two. And after the fourth quarter of the game between them last night, part of me wishes I had stuck with the Spurs, lol
     
  14. EastCoastVegasFan!

    EastCoastVegasFan! High-Roller

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    The Wizards were 30/1 to win the eastern conference when I was in LV last August, I only put $20 on it. That was so gooooood value!
     
  15. zNaturaL

    zNaturaL Low-Roller

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    I ended up with Clippers 10/1 ($40), Rockets 10/1($40) and Blazers 18/1($30).

    Looks like I'll be down to just the Clippers or Rockets in about a week. I like the Clippers chances though.
     
  16. scc31

    scc31 Low-Roller

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    Not saying the NBA is rigged but..... I can see either Clippers or Rockets winning the series to go against GSW in the finals. On one hand, you have a heated rivarly between GSW/LAC in a rematch from last year. Both are West Coast dominant teams so for sure California will be eyeing it. And hten you have Houston, the runner up MVP vs the MVP and having been swept by GSW in regular season (without Dwight FYI), that would be an intriguing match up that would at least have Texas somewhat interested in the NBA playoffs after Spurs/Mavs are both gone.

    IMO. I think GSW should be a lock because both matches would generate a lot of viewership for the NBA followed by either Clip/rockets evenly intriguing from the eyes of an NBA fan.

    (FYI I'm GSW Bias, but I try to see things from a more neutral perspective) I do not think GSW will go to a game 6 or 7 in the Western/Finals. But I think Grizz should be their last remaining obstacles (assuming they don't dick around like in Game 2)
     
  17. Champster1

    Champster1 High-Roller

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    I hope that he listened to your advice UKfan!
     
    March Madness...here I come !!
  18. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Its intriguing. if Conley can hold up and keep playing well, the Grizz stand a good chance. GS is the toughest matchup for them of the remaining teams
     
  19. grosx2

    grosx2 VIP Whale

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    The Finals are essentially being contested right now in the West, GS and Memphis are the two most complete teams in the league.
     
  20. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I agree, but also admit that the Clippers have played better the last couple weeks than I expected. Griffin has elevated his game in a way I did not expect. Still, I don't trust their bench at all
     
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