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Expected Loss?

Discussion in 'Casino Gaming' started by Ben Jammin, Aug 6, 2012.

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  1. Ben Jammin

    Ben Jammin VIP Whale

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    What the hell is that? Well, that's how much the casino expects to make off of you given the avg bets per hour at what level you play. Well did you know that with perfect play at only single odds the game of Craps has one of the lowest houses expectancies of any game, followed closely by Black Jack? I mean, statistics don't lie and if you play at any given game with the perfect strategy with no deviations the house take will be below $40 for 16, that's right, 16 Hours of play.

    But, a dollar slot player might lose as much as $1200 dollars over a 16 hour run.

    Go figure?

    Roulette is around a hundred and sixty bucks.

    There's no way you can get around it, the casinos weren't built on winners.

    But, there are winners and you too can be one if the timing is right and the stars are aligned for you today!

    Just save some for cab fare home.


    added later, I forgot to mention the betting level was a $5 table with $5 single odds. On the 5 and 9 you have to increase your bet size accordingly to get the true 3 to 2 payoff if your point hits. I usually go to double odds, $10. It keeps it simpler and 10 will work on any point. As far as Black Jack it's play basic strategy on a five dollar table.
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2012
  2. crussader

    crussader Low-Roller

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    This is obviously true if your sample size is spread across thousands and thousands of hours of play. However, if you play 16 hours on a single trip, it is very unlikely that you will be down $40. It is much more likely that you will be up or down many multiples of that.

    This is just as true for a perfect strategy blackjack player.
     
  3. WrongWayWade

    WrongWayWade VIP Whale

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    The OP didn't mention the size of the bets the craps and blackjack players are making, (obviously a key factor). A $200 blackjack player has a theoretical loss of $1200 over 16 hours, but not a $10 bettor. Obviously the range of actual results (basically always) varies widely above and below the 'theoretical loss' figure in all types of games.
     
  4. FoolsGold

    FoolsGold Tourist

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    Another way to look at it is to remember that Slot Players get the best comp offers and craps players get the worst comp offers. The casino does this for a reason: slot players will be most likely to give their money to the casino whereas craps players will be least likely to give their money to the casino.
    So the frequent drinks, free rooms and free quarters go to the slot players far more often than to the craps players.
     
  5. Electroguy563

    Electroguy563 Over-Fried Gambler

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    My brother-in-law plays slots almost exclusively. He gets free rooms, food offers, and free-play all the time. On the other hand I play craps almost exclusively and I get casino rate, maybe a free room or two, occasionally, lol!

    My dear wife would play maybe $300.00 in slot play for our whole trip and she gets better offers than me!

    My brother-in-law loses almost all of his bankroll on every trip to Vegas lately. I wouldn't say his rooms, food, and free-play is exactly free....:Þ
     
    Going to Hawaii's 9th Island!!
    Going to Hawaii's 9th island!!
  6. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    What numbers did you use for this calculation?

    What is the house edge you are using for this calculation?
    How many hands per hour?
    How much wagered per hand?
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2012
  7. FoolsGold

    FoolsGold Tourist

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    It never is. Indeed one casino in Biloxi, MS has announced that they have abandoned giving anyone freeplay and have simply loosened their slot machines.

    Many of the calculations for comps are based on estimates and archaic multiples though I'm sure the casinos know just whom their really valuable players are and how valuable they are.

    Most casinos and most players like to have a "mix". Even if I don't play slots I don't consider it a casino if the machines are not all over the place. Its part of the atmosphere and casinos like to attract a mix of customers so as to insulate themselves from any run of good luck enjoyed by a few of them.
     
  8. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    As a frequent visitor there, which one?
     
  9. FoolsGold

    FoolsGold Tourist

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    In Biloxi,
    Its the newly opened Margaritaville.
    Freeplay ain't free... it comes from tightening up other machines, so they've loosened every machine and thats it.
     
  10. WrongWayWade

    WrongWayWade VIP Whale

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    You can still get food comps, just not free-play.
     
  11. Ben Jammin

    Ben Jammin VIP Whale

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    Expeced Loss Per Hour Table Games

    Other factors include how many hands you'll play in an hour on average. If you play at a crowded Black Jack table the game goes slower so you play less hands per hour. The average seems to be somewhere around 80 per hour. So, that's $5 X 80 per hr plus any double downs or splits.

    With a house advantage of less than one percent a good Black Jack game will vary and with basic strategy luck should come your way at least a few times and the trick is to know when to quit.

    So, it doesn't have to be 16 hours, it can be twelve or twenty. I idea is that if you hang in there and play correctly and maybe even get a feel for a loose point count, based on the last six or eight hands especially if the dealer has to hand shuffle. That takes time away from the game and the faster the dealer can deal the more the take for the house. It's that simple.

    We just up our bets a bit while we're winning and try to keep some of it for later.

    Now, theoretically, our loss percentage should be no more than the house advantage times the average bets per hour X hrs played = house take.

    So realistically, over 16 hours of play if the statistics don't lie the casino is making even less than (.05) cents per hand.

    Even at Craps, the house take is less than 1% with single odds, even lower with double odds. I think it's around .86% on single odds and .68 or so on double odds. So, if you stuck to basic pass line bets with odds over time a lucky wave would come your way and if you take full advantage of it you can make a significant amount of money in short order or chip along even or even start to lose a bit, over time it'll come back around. It always does.

    On the flip side a slot machine is set to pay back anywhere from as high as 96% or slightly higher in rare cases, all the way down to 75%, the legal minimum payback. Most are set in the higher range in Las Vegas, where the best returns sometimes are found in the locals casinos. For instance dollar slots on the strip averaged a 93.49% payback average compared to 97.07% on Quarter Slots along the Boulder Highway and into Henderson. Those locals casinos have to appeal to the demographic of their main client base. Savvy locals who expect a good return or they won't play there.

    How many hands you play per hour depends on how fast you can pull the handle on those one armed bandits. Why heck, they even got buttons now. You don't even have to pull the handle down. What'll they think of next? But the real question on my mind is; "How much does it cost to play them dang things for a day or two?"

    There are a lot of variables. What type of machine, what denomination, how many coins in, (usually at least three to make the jackpot,)
    is it a frequent payer or a high jackpot? The lower the jackpot the higher the frequency of that jack pot. Some are two coin (dollar slots), some five but most are three, be they dollars, quarters, nickles, or penny slots, that can take unlimited coins.

    How much does it cost? The short answer is; It ain't Cheap!

    Video Poker is an entity of it's own, and one could write a book on how to approach Video Poker, and many have. Without going into too much detail here I'll just say that if you make the time and take the effort to learn the best play strategies for Video Poker then you can have many hours of fun for a relatively small investment, and you might even get a few free drinks and a royal flush or two.


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    Last edited: Aug 12, 2012
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