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Table Games Dark Side Craps Strategy Question

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by irishdave, Nov 19, 2015.

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  1. irishdave

    irishdave VIP Whale

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    Having trouble wrapping my head around having don't strategy….which is more favorable, making a 1 unit don’t pass bet and then a couple of 1 unit don’t come bets or just a single 3 unit don’t pass bet? Max odds, of course. I keep reading that the don't pass/don't come strategy is better but I can't figure out the math as to why...I just don't get how having more points to hit is good on the don't side.
     
  2. sabinomarine

    sabinomarine Tourist

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    Once you dodge the 7/11 on a DP/DC bet the odds are in your favor. I prefer to place a DC on every roll and load up the odds. When you have 5 or 6 numbers loaded and the 7 comes it is oh so sweet. As for the math the odds are probably the same, just different risk tolerances.
     
  3. BTSyndrome

    BTSyndrome Low-Roller

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    my most recent don't strategy, (ex. $5 table)
    First roll point: Min. don't pass + full odds: 5 + 30
    after first point made next roll (DBL) 10 + 60 odds
    every roll after until 7 is min + odds: 5 + 30
    I will cover the hard ways 5 or 10 to try and offset if they hit the number.

    If they roll my dbl (10 + 60) I will rerun the dbl on the next roll. 10 + 60
    It's all a case of luck, but that's the way I like to play... And just for fun, If they fill most of the numbers I will call out TWO WAY RED 2 + 2 to try and entice the 7 (and help out the dealers).. and piss off the table :evillaugh
    Does it work.. 50% of the time, so that means it does not work 50% of the time. hahahaha
    I enjoy messing with the other people at the table, thats the only reason I love the Don'ts.


    PS. If your on a table at MSS and every number keeps getting hit and you finally look up, if you see the spitting image of the Dalai Lama throwing... get out now!!
    But that was 2014, as u can tell, I'm over it.:licklips:
     
  4. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    It's pretty close. The don't house edge is simply the probability of rolling the 12 (because that's a push instead of a win on the don't come out) minus the pass line edge, which is 1/36 - 0.01414141414 (pass house edge) = 0.01363636363636 (don't pass house edge)

    Personally since I think craps is more of a social game, I'd just rather bet with the group.
     
  5. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Think of it like spreading to playing 3 hands at blackjack. You aren't changing the odds, you are just smoothing the variance.

    Specifically, if you are at a $5 table and put $15 on don't pass, if the next roll is 7 or 11, you have lost 15. With the other strategy, your exposure is $5 to that initial roll, and the next two succeeding ones. And it 'feels' like a better deal, because if you lose a don't come initial roll, you win your previous bets. Two of your 'initial' rolls are hedged

    But that isn't really an advantage. You are simply losing less when a come out roll hits a quick win, in exchange for winning less when the players 7s out on one of the next two rolls.
     
  6. irishdave

    irishdave VIP Whale

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    Makes sense, thanks!
     
  7. boxofbirds

    boxofbirds High-Roller

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    What Nevyn said...

    The difference on don't pass/don't come and pass/come is only 0.05% in house edge. Not a huge difference, so I think that's why even people who know it's a better bet usually play the pass/come so they can "play with the table." I like to play a mix of do and don't depending on how things are going at the table. Seems to work out better in general than the times where I stuck to one way or the other for a whole session. Just don't try to "guess" which way a shooter is going to throw, that never works, haha. And in the long run I still get a little of that extra house edge.
     
    Trip #12
  8. smerrian

    smerrian Low-Roller

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    Irishdave: Your math is a little fuzzy. First off, your putting $2 on the big red (7) for both you and the dealer does not work 1/2 the time. It actually works 1/6 of the time as the 7 comes out 1/6 of the time. (36 different rolls of which 6 of them are 7's.) Of course it only pays 4:1 making it just about the worst bet on the table. Second, every bet on a craps table is independent of every other bet. This is a tough concept to grasp. There is no bet that will 'cover' your bet. Each bet is independent. Third, playing the DP/DC has a very, very slight advantage; not one that would be noticeable in any one session...and the bet you make on the hard way to offset some of the losses brings your game into lower payback than just playing the P/C with the table and skipping the hard ways. And you'd have more fun betting with the table. Your strategy is actually less than just playing with the shooter.
    Stu
     
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