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Table Games Craps the Packer Way

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by Packer, Jun 11, 2014.

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  1. Packer

    Packer VIP Whale

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    Just had a trip to Wynn 2 weeks ago. Hardly played by my standards or theirs. 3 days 2000 avg but only 3 total hours. (Usually plat 4 hours a day or so at 2000) I lost 7k the first couple hours and just didn't feel it so I stopped. Everything was comped. RFB for a parlor 1500 sq ft suite, 6 rounds of golf and so on.... I wanted to see if my host would give me the same or downgrade me for the next time so I called to make a reservation for 3 weeks from now. I said Im coming in to recoup my losses (LOL) and please put me in with the same accommodations as a couple week ago. Didn't ask for a 1500 sq ft parlor suite just said "same accommodations" and sure enough got exactly the same. They over comped me BIG time by 1000s due to my long time relationship and I know if I don't play this upcoming trip or the next 2 trips it will be the same. They no I don't want something for nothing. They do business right. No questions asked. I don't have to worry about a 7k bill at check out. At least they are playing the game right in giving me the impression they like/want my patronage. REALSIONSHIP is what it is all about! My host has been with SW for more than 25 years and knows how to take care of his/her clients.. I tend to expect that treatment from anyplace I stay at but alas I am mostly disappointed. No more handshakes or trusting the clients word. It is all about the bottom line these days..
     
  2. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Packer, I am dying to read the gambling portion of a TR from you sometime. I admit, I am stunned that you are able to play (seemingly) monthly at that level with a loss limit of $20,000, while also generating a usual theo of $20k. To generate that theo, that's about 400 to 500 line bets at craps. And your loss limit is only 10 negative results. If you are able to consistently play at that level and generate that theo with that loss limit, I am dying to see how??? I had a hot run that lasted almost two years once, but a big part of the reason was that my loss limit was much, much higher than a net 10 negative results. In other words, my loss limit/bankroll was large enough to get through the bad negative variance swings. I would love to learn how you're doing it
     
  3. Packer

    Packer VIP Whale

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    Apparently pure luck. I do say im willing to lose 10 to 20k but do have 50k to play with.. NEVER used it.. Don't want to use it but it is there. If I lose 10 to 20k im done. Haven't lost over 10k yet and only lost that amount maybe 2 trips in 3 years. As I said in the past it has been a 3 year run! Knock on wood! Call it patients, discipline, skill or just dumb luck I don't know at this point. Yes, im waiting for the big losing trips to come at anytime! Bottom line, no secrets, no systems it has been just the right timing and luck. Is there such thing as luck?
     
  4. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    Haha, I think it sounds like a mixture of a luck and discipline. The discipline is deciding to quit gambling a few hours into your trip if you're losing. I know I couldn't do that and that's probably the case with most people. Once I'm at the casino I'm going to keep gambling until my trip is over. I keep a high loss limit relative to the stakes I play so I haven't hit it yet, but if I did I'm sure I would just say screw it and double my limit. I have better results in AC because its easier to leave whether I'm winning or losing. Maybe since you go to Vegas monthly that makes it easier to quit early.
     
  5. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Luck is definitely a factor. I think it is for most or all of us when we win. But that is just astounding luck for monthly trips over a three year period. If you have never lost more than $10k, that means you have made 36 trips with your worst lost being a net negative 5 units. If you told me you played for less than an hour total on each trip or you had a loss limit of 200 units (thus allowing you to better ride out variance), I wouldn't be as surprised. But with a loss limit of ten units, and an actual result of never losing more than five units, how many of those trips are you generating the $20k theo? Clearly you are because you're writing about how much Wynn values your play, even when you low play a trip (implying that most of the time, you do not low play them and are actually hitting that big theo mark). That's the astounding part to me. How many of those trips are you making 400 or more line bets on craps? Because if it is most of the trips, then I want to come watch sometime (and back it up, lol)
     
  6. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

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    I am also astounded. I blow through 5 units like nothing....btw....low playing a trip can definitely get you a warning. I am booking a jet in with Wynn for late June and they told me no problem, but that if I don't hit my 250k theo (1m line) then I will have to pay 10k each way for the jet, or 20k. The reason being my last trip was only 75k theo (although i didn't use the jet that trip so I guess they are pre-emptively worried that I will low play them haha since the jet is an upfront comp.
     
  7. RiddickBull

    RiddickBull VIP Whale

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    I would like to see Packer's TR also.

    Every post just sounds like hand waving talk. It just doesn't add up.
     
  8. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    So does this make you Unbreakable Bruce Willis or Mr. Glass Samuel Jackson? hmmmmm :ssst:
     
  9. Packer

    Packer VIP Whale

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    Sheeesh... Im sorry I opened up a can of worms here. I will keep quiet from here on out. As I said I have been more than amazed for almost 3 years now. (Knock on wood) No offence taken. yes, I have been consistently up early. Yes lucky again. Not every time but the majority. out of 45 hands an hour or so I play maybe 1/2 that give or take. Maybe we should start another thread on this subject. There is a lot to how I wager and why I wager the way I do. But bottom line is as Hunter has said to all of us it is about the long relationship and then the wagering maybe not in that order.
     
  10. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    More like Samuel L. but without the cool voice, cool hairstyle, or the cool cane. Just the bad stuff. :cry:

    This helps explain it a lot. If you're playing only half the hands your 12 hours is more like 6 hours and thus less strange that you're rarely busting out. I think your theo numbers are still off though. But good for you if you're getting credit for a full hour of play while only playing half the hands. I've always wondered if pit bosses adjust for that type of thing.
     
  11. Packer

    Packer VIP Whale

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    You bet! If I lose a couple im on the side lines waiting for a couple at least. Im not a chaser at all. Remember patients and discipline... The End! Back to you Hunter.
     
  12. broncofn

    broncofn VIP Whale

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    So than again, how do you get to 20k theo if you do not put in the time while on the sidelines waiting for a better roll?

    Sorry, i dont play craps but this has me wanting me to learn.
     
  13. Packer

    Packer VIP Whale

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    Im getting time for standing there but I don't take advantage of it. They don't give me a hassle about not playing a hand.
     
  14. paperposter

    paperposter VIP Whale

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    the pit bosses keep track if ur sitting out 3o minutes there marking u out, there not stupid anymore.

    i played at a table the guy bought a 3000$ marker player 25$ a hand then when the pit came up went to 50$ then he would take 2 shoe bathroom breaks , it was obvouis what he was doing everyone from pit critters to dealers to players all started laughing after 2 hours it was comical.

    when he left he got marked down for 15 minutes of play at 25$. there hip to everything now

    the numbers dont add up for his theo and they still want around 4 hours of play per atleast some off the time
     
  15. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Packer, I think we have finally gotten to the root of why you're not getting the comps you think you deserve. If half your "play" is observing the table, believe me, the supervisor is not rating you for an hour of play. He or she is rating you for half an hour. I think Hunter (or most any other casino employee) can confirm that. My unsolicited advice, if you're getting the royal treatment from Wynn despite some acknowledged low play trips and despite acknowledging that there are hours where you only play half the hands or rolls, then stick with the Wynn and be thrilled that they are still rolling out the red carpet! With your fortunate streak play, you have found a way to take advantage of the comp system. Ride it out! Don't try and replicate it at every property on the Strip :thumbsup:
     
  16. paperposter

    paperposter VIP Whale

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    correct i dont play craps so im very limited on craps,

    but still if ur not playing there not rating, u can take bathroom break but after a while theh catch on, but packer said he bets 1900$ a hand buts sits out 3o minuts of the hour if i read him correct with a 20 k bank roll,still the numbers dont add up. loose 5 hand hes over.

    as he said he lost 7 grand in one day real quickly and didnt play for the other 3 day3 that happens all the time at type off betting, hes just gamming them to get as much out of them till they catch on
     
  17. paperposter

    paperposter VIP Whale

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    i agree hes trying to game the stystem as hunter said it will catch up with u. but theres no way on a 20 k bank roll he can bet 1900 a hand for a 3 day trip once a month and keep winning year after a year, he should just by the lotto.

    something didnt smell right from day one
     
  18. 4Eyes

    4Eyes Low-Roller

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    In a previous post in a different thread here Packer said he plays Doey/Don't: $1,000 Pass, $1,300 Don't and $30 on 12 every other come-out roll. His actual theo is easy to calculate: $1,222 loss per every 36 come-out rolls, or around $1,020 per hour assuming 30 come-outs per hour which i believe is common -- and assuming he does not sit out half the time. However, while his average rating (spread) should be $2,315, he is actually risking only $315. It appears he uses the incremental $2,000 simply for rating purposes, and it costs him $1,000 x 30/36 = $833 per hour (out of the $1,222). Though costly, when combined with short-playing it appears to be a decent "play for comps" strategy as long as he can get away with it.

    A question for PVH or others here: For comp purposes, does a casino estimate a "potential maximum win" from a player based upon his past play, credit line and/or front money, or other factors? Specifically, If a player is rated at $x,xxx per hand but over time demonstrates to the casino that he is only willing to lose up to 5 bets before quitting, how does the casino asses that player's value to the casino? In the 1980's I understood casinos were more interested in determining "How much can the player potentially win from us?" and "How much can we potentially win from the player?" rather than specific formulas based upon average bets, game speed, game PC and time.
     
  19. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    That is a great question.

    Phrased another (and perhaps opposite) way, if a middle roller gambler consistently over many trips shows he's willing and able to lose a substantial multiple (say 2x and up) of his theo, is that considered in some fashion, either by the algorithm for marketing offers, or by a host?
     
  20. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    Someone posted a while back that their host told them a slot player would get better offers for the same theo than a VP player or something like that. I'd be interested in hearing something definitive from the horse's mouth but I really believe that is true. It is hard to imagine in this day and age casinos not measuring their players' worth with a better level of sophistication than only theo. If I were doing it, theo would be the biggest factor but things like their game choice and max pain would factor in as well. I'd assign more value to the $500 ADT slot player whose $500 loss I could count on than the $500 ADT VP player whose loss I can't count on, even if I expect them both to average out the same over time - i.e. there's a premium for the better certainty.

    Same with a player's max pain. For someone like Packer despite his big bets I'd want to factor in his max pain is "only" around 10k even if I know he's coming in with much more. Or on the opposite end I can use myself as an example, I opened up 20k lines at various properties last year but my actual betting is not commensurate with that size LOC. So if I were assigning a value to myself I might factor in a max pain of half that amount as a more realistic expectation of what they can get from me.

    For comps from a host I can understand using a simple % of theo model. But as an organization trying to best focus its marketing efforts it would be really careless of them not to include other factors.
     
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