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Table Games Craps---how do I hedge my bet?

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by Vegascash2, May 4, 2013.

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  1. Vegascash2

    Vegascash2 Tourist

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    Scenario--Craps, I have $3 on fire bet. I already hit the 4,5,6,8 and 10. On the come out I get the 9. So, what do I bet on to make sure I win at least $1500 guaranteed? Or is there no way to hedge my bets? ( by the way I sevened out)
     
  2. Gregsmt

    Gregsmt Low-Roller

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    So, you have $750 guaranteed already. You would have to lay the nine. If my quick math is correct, if you lay it for $1200, you would also have a $60 vig to pay also. So if the nine comes, you get $3000 - 1260 for a $1740 win. If it doesn't, you get the $750 from the fire bet and your $1200 bet and $800 winnings on it for a $1550 profit. It's early here but I think that's correct. Actually.. I think the vig is $40
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2013
  3. Gregsmt

    Gregsmt Low-Roller

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    I never knew you could place to lose. You can lay the odds for 5% vig, but to place to lose and have it pay $928 on a $1300 bet, I don't think that's right. That would have a positive edge in the players favor so I'm doubting that's right. That would be like placing the 4 to lose for $200 and getting paid $100. You only get $95.
     
  4. Tubbs

    Tubbs High-Roller

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    Place to lose is not available in USA and my odds are also incorrect. That's what I get for posting about games I do not fully understand. I will amend my earlier posts to remove the nonsense. :thumbsup:

    To try to redeem myself somewhat, I'm going to suggest laying the 9 for $1350 to give a guaranteed profit of $1605, after paying the $45 commission. Of course, you need that much in your tray or in your pocket.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2013
  5. jhpa

    jhpa High-Roller

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    OK - that is two new terms for me "lay the odds" and "Place to lose".

    Bottom line, you lay the 9. If you lay it for $150 and it sevens out, you get your $150 back (minus commission) plus $100 win. Or you lay it for $150 and pay the commission up front and you get the full $150 back plus your $100 win.

    According to the most common payout table, you will win at least $750 for the five point win. If you hit the sixth point, you will win $3000

    You want to guarentee at least $1500 for both the hedge and the firebet, so you need the hedge to win $750.

    If you lay the nine for $1250 and the seven comes, you will be paid $1500. you will make $750 on the lay bet (plus get your $1250 back) which - along with your $750 on the five point fire win, gives you a total win of $1500. (Now you would pay the commission of $25 or $40 either going in or coming out. if you want to hedge that too, throw another $50 on your lay bet. But at this point, $25 or $40 is a deminimis)

    If you hit the nine, you will win the full $3000, but you will lose your $1250 bet, so you profit will be $1750.

    Hedge if you want, I did it once but but I won't do it again. I rolled a six point firebet once (with $5 on it!). I hedged the last point (an eight) for virtually everything in my rack ( about $600). Of course I was thrilled when the eight hit. But next time i will go for it all.
     
  6. 4Eyes

    4Eyes Low-Roller

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    I'll assume you are playing on the Strip which has the 25/250/1000 pay schedule for 4/5/6 points.

    You have a 2/5 chance of making the nine. With a $3 Fire bet your Expected Value is ($3,000 x 2/5) + ($750 x 3/5) = $1,650.

    The best hedge you can do is to make a $1,350 Lay bet on the 9, which pays 2 to 3 and requires an upfront 5% ($45) vig on the potential $900 win. If the 9 hits, you win $3,000 on the Fire Bet and lose $1,395 on the Lay, for a net of $1,605. If the 9 doesn’t hit, you win $750 on the Fire Bet and $900 minus $45 on the Lay, for a net of $1,605.
     
  7. Gregsmt

    Gregsmt Low-Roller

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    So, I'm assuming that you prepay the vig when you lay the odds on a number in Vegas? I guess it makes sense. I've never done that out there. Back home you have to prepay the buys which sucks.
     
  8. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    Lock it up. This is the correct answer if you want to hedge exactly.

    The only reason you'd go different than this is if you wanted a little more riding on the light side than dark, just to make it more interesting as you roll. Personally I'd just lay $900 on the 9 with the $30 vig. That way I'm still rooting for hitting the point because it pays me more, but I still get a nice payout if I suck.
     
  9. 4Eyes

    4Eyes Low-Roller

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    First of all, when you make a Lay bet you are not "Laying the Odds." "Laying the Odds" refers to making an Odds bet on an established Don't Pass or Don't Come bet.

    I rarely -- indeed, I don't think I have ever -- made a Lay bet so I can't say for sure, but I believe LV Strip casinos charge the vig up front on Lay bets on 5, 6 8 and 9; on Lay bets on 4 or 10 they only charge the vig if you win. Someone here correct me if I am mistaken.

    BTW, on Buy bets it only makes sense to Buy the 4 and 10. For the 5, 6, 8 and 9 it is better to Place the number. On the LV Strip, the vig on the Buy 4 and Buy 10 is only paid if you win the bet.
     
  10. Gregsmt

    Gregsmt Low-Roller

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    Ok, I conceed that I shouldn't have said lay the odds but it is correct that it is a lay bet. But buying the 5 and 9 does pay better than placing them as long as the vig isn't prepaid. Go to the beau rivage in Biloxi and try to place the 5 or 9. If you bet higher than $20 or $25 they automatically buy it as a normal procedure and it does pay a little more. Do the math on that one.
     
  11. Rush

    Rush High-Roller

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    Don't play the fire bet........problem solved!


    :thumbsup:
     
  12. DonnyC

    DonnyC VIP Whale

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    Quick question :

    What is the difference between a place bet and a buy bet?
     
  13. DonnyC

    DonnyC VIP Whale

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    Also, who offers the fire bet? (And is that the same as 'all tall', 'all small'?

    Thanks
     
  14. chess

    chess VIP Whale

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    I know Harrahs Ballys PHo do off the top of my head
     
  15. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    Very little. The place bet you're placing a number, the buy bet you're buying it, which is the same as placing it except you get true odds and pay vig.

    With 6 and 8, always place. With 10 and 4, always buy if you're playing $25 or higher (and in vegas, they'll automatically give you a buy on those if you bet $25 or more because the payout is better.) 5 and 9 can go either way, depending on if you have to pay the vig up front or after. Usually it's a place unless you say otherwise.
     
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