1. Welcome to VegasMessageBoard
    It appears you are visiting our community as a guest.
    In order to view full-size images, participate in discussions, vote in polls, etc, you will need to Log in or Register.

Comp Calculations

Discussion in 'Comps' started by jdvegas, Mar 11, 2013.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. jdvegas

    jdvegas VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2013
    Messages:
    1,180
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    30
    I just got back - stayed at Mandalay for 3 nights.

    I go about 4 times a year. I get everything I need comped, but I do not ask for a lot (a cabana in summer, shows/events in non-pool weather. I am not too extravagant with my meals). The one thing I often ask for is extra rooms - either comped or casino rates. I usually get a mix depending on how much food and drink I charge to the room. This trip I got 4 room free and one at casino rate. All room charges were comped - but we really charged very little to the rooms... $400 total for all rooms/nights. Limo both ways to airport.

    But my real question is about the stats - this is the first time I asked to see all the details about my play:

    17 hours
    $525 avg bet
    $3500 theo
    $@#$! actual loss (more than 5x theo)​

    The theoretical profit seems very low to me. I play 100% blackjack - so at 60 hands/hr, the are using about .65% house margin.

    I play mostly 2 hands at a time, and play in the high stakes pit. mix of 2 card and 6 card. dealer stand on soft 17. Surrender on the 6 deck table. I play by the book. I do not vary my bet a lot - 2 hands, $200 to $400 per hand.

    Like I said at the start, I have no complaints about what I get comped - but from everything I have read, the house percentage they are using seems very low.

    Thoughts? They have me pegged as a perfect player on best percentage tables?
     
  2. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2012
    Messages:
    2,421
    Location:
    Colorado Springs
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    12
    You got four free rooms for three nights. By the best estimation that's 12 of your hours gone at a min of $400 ($100 per room).

    I think you got treated pretty reasonably. You probably could have been able to get more food, but I think it's really pretty close. If they want more than 100 per room, it's definitely close.
     
  3. jdvegas

    jdvegas VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2013
    Messages:
    1,180
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    30
    3 nights each at THEhotel
     
  4. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2012
    Messages:
    2,421
    Location:
    Colorado Springs
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    12
    Sorry, I missed that in the original post.
     
  5. jdvegas

    jdvegas VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2013
    Messages:
    1,180
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    30
    yeah - not complaining about comp amount, but questioning the house percentage they are using for theo calculation. more about my geeky curiosity than a complaint.
     
  6. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2012
    Messages:
    2,221
    Location:
    Taipei, Taiwan
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    100
    I agree with you, for some reason BJ is one of the slowest theo games at many casinos I play at; they are also way paranoid about you counting, having huge swings in betting, etc...

    I think it is the anti-counter mentality that has them pegging such a low HA to the game.

    It is also one of the fastest games, so if you played 17 hours, that's a lot of hands and a lot of money to put at risk for 3500 theo! From your comment about the actual losses, it seems they have the HA pegged way too low...but it is the same for everybody at MB...so nothing you can do about it unless you play elsewhere or a different game.
     
  7. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2012
    Messages:
    2,221
    Location:
    Taipei, Taiwan
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    100
    Just a comparison with other games

    Baccarat at 17 hours at 500/hand will get you about 8500 theo
    Craps not counting odds about the same, a little less.
    Roulette will be about 17k theo...and more exciting :)
     
  8. jdvegas

    jdvegas VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2013
    Messages:
    1,180
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    30
    natedog, i am a new member... but i read your epic trip report from last month and am a big fan now. honored to have you reply to my post!

    good luck as you begin your current trip.

    I will be back in 8 weeks...
     
  9. Gregsmt

    Gregsmt Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2012
    Messages:
    202
    Location:
    Midwest
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    16
    My last trip was mostly craps with a little BJ and even less pai gow. I was rated $212 @ 35 hours with a theo of $6100.
     
  10. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2012
    Messages:
    3,414
    I would love to know the answer to this. I've googled the hell out of it in the past and couldn't find any hard data.

    I actually think your 0.65% estimate is even low. The unknown variable is always the hands per hour the casino uses. I don't know what they use and it doesn't seem like anyone does. There is no way your ACTUAL hands per hour was only 60. 1 hand per minute is incredibly slow since given the stakes you play I'm assuming you're at tables that are empty or near empty. The Wizard of Odds has figures on his site that come from some casino management textbook:

    Hands per Hour in Blackjack
    Players Hands per hour
    1 209
    2 139
    3 105
    4 84
    5 70
    6 60
    7 52

    I think 100/hr is a better guesstimate as to what they would use. In that case the house edge they'd have against you would be about 0.40%.....considering the games you play range from 0.27% to 0.48% under perfect basic strategy that number doesn't seem to crazy.

    I'm skeptical about the idea that the casinos use a high HA number by default because players don't play perfectly. Blackjack is easy to play perfectly. For anyone with half a brain who knows basic strategy it is unlikely you make costly mistakes.

    If casinos used the 1% number thats thrown around a lot it would essentially wipe out their profit if they comped you at 30-40%. I don't think they're that dumb. They'd much rather err on the side of undercomping than overcomping.

    If anyone could find out the hands per hour they use that would be very very useful information. Every other variable is known.
     
  11. jdvegas

    jdvegas VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2013
    Messages:
    1,180
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    30
    I was playing alone about half the time, and with 1 or 2 other players the other half. I would not be surprised if I was doing 100 hand/hr. Remember that I play two hands myself.

    I will see if my host is willing to share more detail about what they use and if they dynamically vary it or if there is one hands/hr for BJ that is used by default across the board.
     
  12. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2012
    Messages:
    3,414
    Here's my totally unsubstantiated but "educated" guess based on what I've seen on the ratings computers. This was at CET casinos in AC where the small touch screen computer is attached to each gaming table.

    Since the pit records your seat position it records how many players are at a table at any given time. It also knows what dealer was dealing. I know I've heard from dealers that there speed gets scored by mgmt because they are supposed to be able to deal at a certain speed. Therefore it can easily generate some hands/hr figure dynamically.

    The reason I don't think they use a default number is simply because I'm giving them credit that they operate in the 21st century and try to use technology to become more efficient. On a game like blackjack where the house edge is razor thin, accurate ratings are especially important. Its unlikely these casinos have been operating for decades without discovering they were overcomping BJ players by rating them using liberal figures on house edge and speed.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.