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College Bowl Betting Strategies

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by RWDPeanut, Dec 16, 2013.

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  1. RWDPeanut

    RWDPeanut Low-Roller

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    College Bowl season is probably the most difficult "sports tourney" to bet on due to many factors, mainly the lines are set and adjusted 2 weeks in advance, but it also has some of the most vulnerable lines if you know what to look for (i.e. interim coach, high profile school in a small profile bowl, etc.).

    What are some of YOUR College Bowl betting strategies? Do you try to pick off vulnerable lines only? Do you bet all underdogs, all favorites, all overs, etc.? Or do you treat this as any other game and analyze the best possible bet?

    Thanks! I am interested in seeing the different strategies!
     
  2. vegas_or_bust

    vegas_or_bust High-Roller

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    I don't have a real strategy, but one factor that I rely on when handicapping bowl games is strength of schedule. A matchup with a team that has 4-6 losses (but played a very tough schedule) versus a team with only a few losses (but played a cupcake schedule) may offer some value. For example, USC (SOS #14) vs. Fresno St. (SOS #111) this Saturday. I like USC a lot in that game.

    Here is a link that discusses SOS

    http://www.sportsmemo.com/blogs/view/?name=College-Football-Handicapping:-Strength-of-Schedule-for-Bowl-Game-Matchups&blog_id=14062
     
  3. slimmy28

    slimmy28 Low-Roller

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    I think you have a good idea of what to look for. Me personally, I try to find underdogs that I like and play them. A bet on the spread and always a little on the Moneyline. Also, keep an eye on suspensions and players who have already declared for the draft. Ultimately, like any sports bet, you have to handicap just about everything. It's a fun time to bet, but can be very tricky.
     
  4. AndyGator

    AndyGator Tourist

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  5. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Clay is a good guy. I met him years ago when I supervised him as an intern and then we went to the same law school (he was wise enough to start eating pudding and writing about sports rather than continue the legal rat race). But that said, I wouldn't rely on him for anything close to handicapping picks. He's a fun writer, but please don't rely on him for your picks
     
  6. BackInVegas

    BackInVegas VIP Whale

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    Only three games for me

    Already played, but I bet on Oregon State since Boise Coaching was all wacko and Boise had not really beat ANY good teams. I only made a small wager on this one.

    Northern Illinois -give the points and take the Huskies. I would make this a medium bet. Utah State and Boise State same conference, beating the same bad teams.

    Ball State - give the points. Before the bowls started, this is the game I picked as the largest mis-match. This is my big bet.

    On this forum, the last time I mentioned any bets I made I took a beating. See how I do this time.

    My only strategy is my knowledge. Same games I don't know enough about the teams(vanderbilt/Houston no clue on either) or for most of the games, the matchups are good matchups in my mind, and the point spreads are about right.
     
  7. AndyGator

    AndyGator Tourist

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    True, just throwing it out there for fun. He knows the SEC well (and practically writes conference propaganda), but I wouldn't put much stock in his opinion on a game like Oregon-Texas.
     
  8. Buddha

    Buddha VIP Whale

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    These are both my picks as well, but for different reasons.
    >> NIU has Jordan Lynch at QB ... who finished 3rd in the Heisman voting , plus I got my Masters Degree from NIU. Go Huskies !!!

    >> Been to Ball State in Muncie, Ind many times, as our daughter and son-in-law both graduated from there.
    Go Cardinals !!!
     
  9. BackInVegas

    BackInVegas VIP Whale

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    The money I won on Oregon State, I rolled over onto NIU. Since NIU lost I am back to even. Since I am superstitious, I will never post my bets on this forum again. I take a beating when I do it.

    The Gambling gods of Superstition have now shown me that I am to keep my yapper shut if I want to win.

    The only game I like today is, bet on Minnesota.

    BYU has historically crushed me on betting. I leave them alone. Conversely, Washington has always been good to me. Who do I bet on for that game? Keep my wallet closed.

    I have never wagered on Marshall or Maryland, and I will keep that streak intact.
     
  10. smartone

    smartone VIP Whale

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    That's funny! ... and TOTALLY understandable!!!
     
  11. vegas_or_bust

    vegas_or_bust High-Roller

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    LOL--"I will never post my plays on this board again"......two sentences later....."bet on Minnesota." :thumbsup:
     
  12. BackInVegas

    BackInVegas VIP Whale

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    LOL, the difference being, I have ZERO dollars on the Minnesota game. Since I am not betting it, it does not matter and the Gambling gods of Superstition will probably have the Gophers win to further pound me in the dirt, since I did not bet it.

    The usual gambler lament will then be uttered, "I was going to bet on that one!!"

    In my OP, I did add the caveat how when I post my bets on this forum I get hammered. I figured maybe the Gambling gods of Superstition could not touch me since I posted Oregon State after the fact and I had that win.

    Ha!! The Gambling gods of Superstition showed me that they were watching me and took my money from the NIU game.

    Nope, I am NOT superstitious at all. Luckily, I do draw the line and I will wear new/ clean underwear no matter how lucky I was in the pair I wore yesterday.
     
  13. LV_Bound

    LV_Bound VIP Whale

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    Currently in a Bowl pool and found a matrix which lists the wins/loss of one conference playing another. Most only have a few games but others there are obvious differences.
     
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