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Cheaper Strategy to get RFB: BJ, Craps, or VideoPoker?

Discussion in 'Casino Gaming' started by TIMSPEED, May 2, 2015.

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  1. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    So, an undisclosed property wishes these requirements for full RFB:
    $75 average on table games for 4 hours per day
    $15k coin-in on video poker (9/6 JoB)

    What would require the lowest bankroll?
    Playing $10 pass with 2x odds (they only rate up to 2x odds), plus $24 6 & 8
    Playing $75 BJ (Double-Deck 3:2, DAS, S17)
    Playing $15k coin-in on $1 9/6 JoB
     
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  2. Joe

    Joe VIP Whale

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    Damn, 15k coin in on $1 VP is tough. I play $1 VP and my wife plays quarters, on the same card and we can get to the 15k level, but that leaves time for almost nothing else. Regarding craps: I have always been told odds don't count, at least at Boyd.
     
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  3. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    Nah..it'll take me about 5 hours...
     
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  4. broncofn

    broncofn VIP Whale

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    Full RFB for $75 a hand in BJ? Sign me up! Must not be a strip property, right?
     
  5. thefish2010

    thefish2010 Low-Roller

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    Well, since you want the solution with the lowest variance (not necessarily the lowest edge), VP and BJ are out. $25 on the don't, with full odds when the point is 4 and 10, will give you the lowest variance on craps (assuming you don't simply place offsetting bets, at the same time, which would give you the lowest variance of all). You could also alternate between the pass/don't to further decrease variance.
     
  6. RC

    RC Low-Roller

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    He said the BJ was DD & S17, which I'm pretty sure eliminates all off strip properties in Vegas.
     
  7. Gofaster87

    Gofaster87 Low-Roller

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    I would do JOB. Ive seen a grand lost prettily easily on BJ and craps with those betting levels in a short amount of time. Not unheard of to lose 10 or more hands in a row. VP has the low edge and the possibility of a 4k Royal. Your bankroll should be at least half a royal though. So 2k for a day of VP playing JOB. Since the volatility of JOB is so low I would doubt you would even get near that bankroll requirement for 15k coin in but its always possible.
     
  8. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    Not a strip property, no.

    - - - Updated - - -

    That's what I thought too..JoB, but I thought BJ might be a little less variance (but you're right, 10 hands in a row lost isn't uncommon)
     
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  9. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    Of your choices, I would play the $75 blackjack table...that's a great game, and a sufficient bankroll for that would be about $3000 for a 4-hour session (spreading 1-4).
    If you play properly, and even keep a half-decent count, you will come out ahead or only a few units down after 4-hours. (Of course - I'm biased, as I'm a blackjack player, so there's that)

    Craps? The problem there is how quickly it can go (7-out), and how long it takes to recover a single loss (3 hits - either 6, 8 or the point, without a 7).
    In blackjack, it's nearly a 1-to-1 with wins and losses, with a few pushes thrown in from time to time.
    Take advantage of a few positive counts, and you could easily be on your way to a very successful 4 hour session.

    I don't know anything about V/P and what $15K "coin in" actually represents, so I cannot speak to that.
     
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  10. thefish2010

    thefish2010 Low-Roller

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    He's looking for low variance. BJ is relatively high variance. The actual hand win/loss ratio is pretty bad - like 45/55. The difference is made up in splits and doubles, which don't happen all that often and when lost only further add to the negative variance. Overall he's talking about a great game with a very low edge, but it's not a low variance game, and that's what he was asking for.
     
  11. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    Win % 42.4
    Loss % 49
    Push % 8.6

    So - depending on how one looks at it, (optimistically or pessimistically), you will NOT LOSE 51% of the time.
    Of course, you will not WIN 57.6% of the time.

    But for the purpose of 'surviving' a 4-hour session of either craps or blackjack, assuming a minimum bet of $75 per 'event' (dice roll or hand dealt), The "not losing 51% of the time" seems to be particularly pertinent. You will lose your $75 base bet 49% of the time. You will push or win the other 51%.
    Assuming one doubles & splits when basic strategy calls for that, those extra bets won nearly make up for all of the extra won hands for the house.
    This is why this game has less-than 0.50% house advantage.

    In any event, I don't think of blackjack as being a "high variance' game, especially when compared to craps.
    As I noted above, the drawback is in the number of winning $75 events needed to offset one $75 loss.
    In blackjack, that number is 1.
    In the craps example given (pass-line, 2x odds, 6 & 8 place bets), he needs (up to) three 'winning' events to offset one loss. As 7 is more likely to come up than any other number rolled, I would think the 'variance' in craps is much higher than blackjack.

    Additionally, when one assumes a reasonably accurate (not perfect) simple plus/minus count on this two deck game, the opportunities to have a hand or two per deck to increase your base bet when odds even more favor a win or push for you, can quite easily turn this game into a positive-expectation game - something no crap game can ever be.
    :beer:
     
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  12. thefish2010

    thefish2010 Low-Roller

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    Maybe you've never had a bad run at blackjack, but I have personally had 80+ unit losses in 4 hours. At the $75/hand he wants to play, that would be a $6K loss. I also had a period where I lost more than 40 consecutive blackjack sessions over the course of two years - and I play 100% perfect basic strategy optimized for the specific rules of each game I play (6 deck has a slightly different optimal basic strategy than DD for example). So yes, BJ has serious variance. Also, and perhaps more importantly, there is now way to hedge bets in blackjack. There are also craps bets, like taking odds against the 4 and 10, that will win at a rate of 2:1. That, combined with making offsetting bets, will deliver far more survivability over a set, relatively small period of time than BJ could ever hope to. BJ has a drastically lower house edge, but much higher variance.

    Re: card counting...I think his intention (although he didn't explicitly state this) is to get his comps and not be flat-betted or barred from BJ for life at the property he's playing at. They can see an amateur card counter from a mile away, and if they offer a DD, S17, DAS game, they're watching it like a hawk. Finally, even if he were counting, that wouldn't solve the variance problem. Ask any professional card counter, and they'll tell you they've lost for months at a time at some point in their career. That's one reason most of them have moved on to hole carding,
     
  13. Tubbs

    Tubbs High-Roller

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    I want to know what off strip property offers those BJ rules! I can only think of M Resort but they would not have 9/6 JOB.

    Are we sure it's not a H17 game?
     
  14. bardolator

    bardolator Lifelong Low Roller

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    I was once down $700 in 40 minutes playing BJ for greens at a full table. That'd be 3 grand an hour at $75 per. So even a good game of BJ (and that is a surprisingly good game) can't be counted on (or counted in) if RFB for a lowish bankroll is the objective. Used to be that a BJ player could give the appearance of playing more than he actually played, which would mitigate the variance, but I have never tried doing that and don't know that one could get away with it even in a small house these days.

    At craps one can experience similar streaky play, and with low odds would not getting that much cash out there at even money.

    VP seems to me to be the only good choice.
     
  15. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    It might be a H17, but I thought it was S17...
     
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  16. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    Yes, of course I've had bad runs at blackjack...every player has. I've also had far more bad runs at craps (as a percentage of play). I can count the number of times I've had winning sessions at craps on two hands, while having attempted about 100 sessions or more.
    With blackjack, that is almost reversed...I've had about twice as many winning sessions as losing ones.
    Maybe I'm just lucky... or maybe it's because I bet my minimum when bad runs are happening, and I bet higher when they are not.
    I have never (and would never) limit myself to a $75 minimum bet for the purpose of securing a comp of any kind. My minimum bet is always set by the table and casino for the available game that I will allow myself to play.
    In other words, if I will only play two-deck blackjack that is S17 with DAS, I know that $25 is lowest I will ever find... and that, only at the Mirage...if they even still have it.
    Conversely, if I am paying downtown, and willing to play H17 (I am), then there is a ton of 3:2 two-deck tables at $5 & $10.
    When I pay at Boyd properties downtown, I am willing to give up DAS in order to pay at the $5 & $10 level...because that's all they have... all are no DAS.
    When I play at El Cortez, Plaza or LVC, I only play their two-deck shoes....those allow DAS. At Golden Gate, I've played their CSMs, but as long as they keep offering their two-deck shoe with DAS @ $15 minimums, I will continue to favor that table.
    I only point this out because my base bet will generally be higher than the table minimum. On bad runs (or bad counts) I will reduce to below my base bet, down to the table minimum. Does this impact my "average bet per hand"? Of course it does.
    My point is, I am not setting my minimum - the casino (effectively) is. Just as I will never play 6:5 anywhere, regardless of the minimum, I will never allow myself to be forced into a higher minimum than I am comfortable with just to chase a comp.
    So - I will never find myself in the OPs situation.
    As for your craps example of of the don't and the don't 4/10, you're right of course...but the OP limited his craps option to the pass-line, 2x odds & a $24 6 & 8.
    If he hits the point, then it only takes that 1 win to offset 1 loss. But to do it with the 6/8, he must have 3 hits before a 7 in order to offset one loss.
    Blackjack is always 1-to-1, assuming a flat bet. Actually, a little bit better than 1-to-1, as you get paid 3:2 on a blackjack, but only lose even money with a dealer blackjack.

    Yes - the house will win more hands than the player at every blackjack table, but generally speaking, the wins, pushes & losses will work out over any significant time period to be about 42-9-49 (win-push-loss). There will be good & bad runs during that period of time, of course. If one takes a snapshot of a 6 or 7 hand 'bad run', one can say that this means the variance is high & so is the risk-of-ruin.
    Of course, I can take a snapshot of 6 or 7 wins in a row, a bunch of successful doubles & splits, and a series of positive counts that result in much higher win/push percentages... and declare that the game is nearly a guaranteed winner. 7 losses is $525. So is 7 wins. The amount of the base bet is not relevant. Bankroll size is (to the OP).

    Anyway, we know that both of such claims would be deceptive.
    There are bad runs in blackjack. There are bad runs in craps. I would argue that the quantity of each, @ $75 each play, is probably very similar.

    So - we're now back to how many winning events it takes to offset each loss... and blackjack "wins" that contest. Because of that, I would think the necessary bankroll for 4 hours of play would be lower for blackjack.
    :beer:
     
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  17. meyers67

    meyers67 High-Roller

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    I don't believe that reduces variance.
     
  18. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    You need to ignore the pushes, and divide the Wins or Losses, by the Total of the Wins AND Losses (no Pushes), to derive the percentage of time you will Win or Lose.
    42.4 / (91.4) = 46.4% chance of winning
    49 / (91.4) = 53.6% chance of losing

    So 45% win and 55% lose is a reasonable estimate for BJ.
     
  19. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    thefish is right. The standard dev of that type of betting at craps is lower than a single BJ bet, plus since you're aiming for a total time you have to factor in that its a lot slower.

    On another note though I'd be wary of the quality of the R, the F, and the B at a place that gives it to you for 4 hours at only $75/hand.
     
  20. Viva Las Vegas

    Viva Las Vegas Ramblin' Gamblin' Man

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    I'd say the order you have them in is probably the best ranking in terms of bankroll needed. You'll face many more hands of blackjack than you will craps during your four hour session. Assuming you are rated properly, craps with credit for the 2Xs odds bet is likely your best bet. I think you'll be playing solo a lot at a high green or black minimum BJ table, regardless where you play, over a 4 hour daily stretch. You can lose a lot of coin playing single line $1 JOB over 3,000 hands. You would have a better chance with a 3-5 line $1 game. If the undisclosed property is Harrah's Tahoe, they have such a game.

    Your still better off just earning your comps and not playing at a level that gives you concern about having sufficient bankroll. You'll come out ahead either taking a corporate offer and having any room charges dropped at the end of the trip if you reach the threshold, and if you don't you're not risking additional thousands to get in your 4 hours per day to claim "free" meals.
     
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