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Can you beat the Sportsbooks?

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by PayTriple, Jan 19, 2016.

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  1. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    We all know that the casino games are negative expectation games, but what about betting on sports?

    I think it is possible to beat a sportsbooks if you are a savvy bettor who does some homework. Yet, the sportsbooks thrive, meaning bettors clearly lose as a group.

    What do you think and why?
     
  2. mike mc

    mike mc High-Roller

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    PT I think most times the plays are done by hunches or by their hearts, ( the bettor's} hometown favorites. PT you appear ahead of the curve thinking rational and objectively. ( I've even seen you go against the Pat's if it made sense)
     
    Just Click The Book It Button It's Easy
  3. Franken Dean

    Franken Dean Newbie

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    I think as a individual you can win consistently.


    I think technology and the availability of betting information is really helping us.


    Unfortunately the majority of betters are not spending the time and adhering to a strict betting strategy.

    On Thursdays, we have 5 games we like, but by Monday we have played 10 other games that we did not do our homework on, which are made in a casino while slurping down free beverages.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2016
  4. Joe

    Joe VIP Whale

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    Put me in this category. The book is maybe 2% of my BR on a Vegas trip. It just makes any game more interesting if you have a wager and are sitting at the bar playing VP. For me, NFL only and most weeks, not all, I tend to bet the Pack. I did go against them a couple of times this year and won, but for the most part, I'm a homer.
     
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  5. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    I think a lot of what can be said he already been said recently here:

    http://www.vegasmessageboard.com/forums/showthread.php?127367-Vegas-had-to-get-slaughtered-yesterday

    The books work hard to ensure they get as close to 50/50 on any side and total. So, I think contrary to some beliefs, the books aren't trying to outsmart bettors. Corporate interest is to collect the no-risk juice on every bet rather than risking they've somehow tricked a bettor into taking a bad position on a bet.

    And, the moneylines and carnival bets all have associated juice that makes it hard for a bettor to get ahead in the long run. It doesn't take too many bets that lose on a sure thing to wipe out a savvy sports bettor. And, with the recent scandal of tennis players fixing games, you can see how a sure thing is bound to lose from time to time.

    With all of that said... if you're not an action junkie (need action everyday and many bets per day) and have pretty good money management, then I definitely believe it's possible to be break even or better.
     
  6. voltron12

    voltron12 Low-Roller

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    Beating vegas sportbooks that offer mostly mainstream lines is going to be difficult to beat year after year consistently. I have been able to make a nice living doing it with only player prop bets the past 6 years. This lines are soft and since they are bet by such a small amount of people, the lines are not as sharp and not moved correctly most of the time. These lines are not going to be available at vegas books though except for the superbowl (there may be other times but not that I am aware of). I do this at online books but you know how places dont like to lose money and I have now been limited to 25.00 or lower max bets at almost every online book. Finding a truely off or super soft line on mainstream sports is very difficult and far and few between. If you do find these lines and bet huge amounts to profit in the long run, you will probably be limited or banned. So moral of the story is books can be beat, but if you find a way to do it, they will find a way to not welcome your business anymore. There are to many other losing bettors out there.
     
  7. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    If you put a lot of work into it, I think you can overcome the juice. But for nearly everyone, it's just easier to make money in another outlet.
     
  8. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    a few people in the world possess the skills, knowledge and ability to hurt the book long term.

    the rest just dream.
     
  9. Bommen

    Bommen High-Roller

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    This is true but if you were one of them you would be a dinosaur if you keep making bets at the bookies. Anyone trying to make a living betting sports need to move to a country were they are allowed to do online betting on live trading markets. Much easier to make a living when the wig is replaced by a small transaction fee.
     
  10. undathesea

    undathesea Grandissimo

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    Hurting the book long term and beating (or showing a profit over the long haul) are two totally different animals.

    On your point, I would definitely agree. 99.99999999% of bettors have very little chance of hurting the books long term.

    After 10 years of betting, if you have $1 more than you started with, you've beaten the books. I'd have to suspect your odds of achieving that feat are better than 1 x 10^-8 though.
     
  11. Krh2o

    Krh2o MIA

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    Yes I think so, to some extent. The so called "Sharps" rarely bet parlays and just bet several single games. The parlays seem to get me a lot. I do much better betting each game separate.
     
  12. frankelthepirate

    frankelthepirate Tourist

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    It's hard to beat math. The lines are so spot on when you factor in the juice it's nearly impossible. Realistically you have to win 60% of your bets just to break even. Much easier to be a winning poker player if you want something that can actually be beaten.... although that's not exactly easy.
     
  13. Franken Dean

    Franken Dean Newbie

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    You have no chance beating the sportsbook, if you have to win 60% or even 55% of your bets. Guys that bet the same amount on 80%+ of their bets will lose. The key to hurting the sportsbook is to attain a 50/50 win percent, but maximize your wins by parlaying your winning money into more money on 3 or 4 game streaks

    Be diligent and don't chase with your bank roll on the line during tough weeks.
     
  14. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    I bet sports a fair amount and have done so over the 15 years or so.

    I would love to move to Vegas and live the dream as a sports bettor but no way am I one of the few who can do that. Like Franken said you have to be in that 60%+ range to show consistent profit and that is damn hard to do with the lines being as tight as they are.

    There is an annual NFL pick'em I am in that is similar to The Super Contest (which I plan on doing this year...finally) and I finished 8th out of about 350 people. I finished with a 63% clip and the winner was at 74%. I banked $1100ish and the winner took down $6500. Once I knew I was angling for the top 10 it became stressful to make sure I was making the right calls.

    I am not big into the analtyics like some. I use certain bits of data but I am big on betting on what I see and believe. Staring at some of the rankings can be super misleading so I read and watch as much as I can and go with that.

    You also must have a feel for lines. There have been times when a line screams "bet me" and it is a huge trap. Utah vs USC in college football this year was one that sticks in my mind. I have fallen for such traps before. You also have to know the nuances of which teams carry higher lines based on how the majority of the public bets them. Notre Dame, Cowboys, Steelers, Yankees, Lakers...usually if you like an underdog in one of their games you get some value because those teams are usually bet up.

    Also look for value in teams no one gives a shit about. College hoops and football are ripe for the picking sometimes. A couple years ago I was killing CFB because I was betting some of the lower tier teams (Louisiana Tech, Louisiana Lafayette, Western Kentucky, etc) and found their lines pretty loose.

    So could I beat the bookie? Not consistently.

    And with all that being said...college kickers and free throws will takes years off your life.
     
  15. Iceicecool

    Iceicecool Low-Roller

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    You cannot beat sports betting. The -110 average line is about a 9% house advantage right off the top. Could you beat Blackjack if it had a 9% house edge? There's only two ways to beat the odds.....have insider knowledge, or have a superior ability to process statistics that other people do not have. If you think you have the second part of that, well you can join the 3 billion other males in this world who think they are better at picking sports than the next guy. All the so-called "sharps" make their money either writing books or selling picks.
     
  16. Motorcat

    Motorcat Low-Roller

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    I have had consistant good luck with betting MLB money lines but I really put in the time.

    I am an absolute baseball geek and love crunching numbers - last year I hit on 30 out of 34 bets and came back with a real nice bankroll.

    Now my trips where I am on NBA and NHL are more of an adventure. I'll load up on about 6-10 games a night and hope for a better than .750 clip

    NFL, well, anyone can beat anyone on any given day so I bet a few cherry picked games and go large.

    I use to think I could make a living in the book but I have learned its hard to string a bunch of winning nights together without getting zapped with a big clunker of a night which usually wipes out the consective winning nights.

    MLB - live it, breath it study it .......... its your best chance IMO.
     
  17. TXactuarial

    TXactuarial Low-Roller

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    In the words of Richard Munchkin, "If you're smart enough to be a successful professional gambler, you are smart enough to make more money doing something else."
     
  18. hotreds

    hotreds VIP Whale

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    Like any gambling, you may win in the short run, but you won't in the long run. It's hard enough to pick winners even up, but we now have to beat the spread as well. Ain't gonna happen. If you had bet on Clemson for the college championship you would have been a winner because they beat the odds!
     
    Will give them a try!
  19. 44inarow

    44inarow VIP Whale

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    I also think a lot of sports-betting long term wins come not only from picking games, but keeping constant watch on the lines and taking advantage of movement. You get a lot more of your payout from one middle than you do a bunch of individual wins.
     
  20. karlmonday

    karlmonday Tourist

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    I usually go to Vegas for March Madness and two College football/NFL weekends and have for several years.

    I have a high win % on NFL(I play alot of first halves), but I don't kid myself thinking I could do it full time.

    I have a slight win in College football.

    I suck at basketball....lol
     
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