1. Welcome to VegasMessageBoard
    It appears you are visiting our community as a guest.
    In order to view full-size images, participate in discussions, vote in polls, etc, you will need to Log in or Register.

Table Games Can a shooter influence the dice?

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by mrem3200, Jul 4, 2015.

?

Can a shooter in craps influence the dice to improve their odds

  1. Um, no - there are too many variables to make it anything other than 100% random

    70 vote(s)
    48.3%
  2. Yeah maybe - with a lot of practice they could probably improve their odds a little bit

    59 vote(s)
    40.7%
  3. For sure - with enough practice it could make a noticeable difference

    16 vote(s)
    11.0%
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. mrem3200

    mrem3200 High-Roller

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2011
    Messages:
    777
    Location:
    Connecticut
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    15
    This discussion seems to come up on a lot of threads but I have never seen a poll about it to see how many people are on which side. So the question is can a shooter in craps influence, control (call it whatever you want) the dice to improve their odds? This is assuming a legal roll.
     
  2. Hobofrank

    Hobofrank Prime Minister of Idiocracy

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2014
    Messages:
    3,234
    Location:
    Porter Ranch,CA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    100
    yes but this usually devolves into two different arguements

    the dozens of variables to account for in a physics sense (pyramids, felt, ability to get used to table difference, air temp and humidity.etc)

    all the while ignoring that many of these variables are faces by pro golfers, and other athletes, yet you wouldn't go up against any of them for money


    the other argument is strictly based on statistics and assumptions on the physics and then devolves into assuming dice influence = telekinesis or ability to throw any number you choose each time
     
  3. PTC Larry

    PTC Larry Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2013
    Messages:
    132
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    25
  4. thecarve

    thecarve Misanthrope

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2009
    Messages:
    4,377
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    49
    I'm definitely in the agnostic camp on this one.

    Obviously, no reasonable argument can be made that it isn't possible in theory. But I haven't seen any rigorous studies/statistics/evidence showing that it can be done successfully enough to make a meaningful impact on the odds of the game in practice. Nor have I ever experienced anything that would make me think I was playing with someone who could influence the dice enough to matter.
     
  5. Snidely

    Snidely VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2012
    Messages:
    1,957
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    20
    I think the best dice setter could reduce their probability to seven out a tiny amount. I seem to be at table's where the people that set the dice must be doing it wrong because they seem to seven out more than what would be expected.
     
  6. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2014
    Messages:
    4,018
    Location:
    Massachusetts
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    26
    No way.
     
  7. Hobofrank

    Hobofrank Prime Minister of Idiocracy

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2014
    Messages:
    3,234
    Location:
    Porter Ranch,CA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    100
    anybody can set 2 dice together, doesn't make them a practiced dice setter/influencer

    book and it's cover
     
  8. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2012
    Messages:
    2,664
    Location:
    Fort Worth
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    82
    I'll say this about it:
    If a shooter places the dice in the same spot on the felt, with the same numbers-up, and tosses them to the exact same spot against the back-wall every time, (all possible), then I could see where the outcome might show a bias to a particular number or group of numbers.
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
  9. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2014
    Messages:
    4,018
    Location:
    Massachusetts
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    26
    I agree it is THEORETICALLY possible, but I believe in practice it is not possible.
     
  10. bardolator

    bardolator Lifelong Low Roller

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2005
    Messages:
    1,426
    Location:
    Green, Ohio
    So if a baseball pitcher has good nights and bad nights, would a dice setter have them, too?

    I do not believe one can be precise enough to control dice with a legal throw.
     
  11. Piggylane

    Piggylane Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2013
    Messages:
    680
    Location:
    Quabbin Reservoir, MA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    159
    This has been argued many times!

    I think the question is incomplete.

    A better question would be "Can a shooter influence the dice long term?"

    The answer would be a definite no in my opinion.

    In the short term one could be convinced that proper technique of muscle memory in holding and shooting the dice to a precise spot could result in a series of precise rolls. But have you ever seen a dice setter roll 24 elevens in a row? Show me somebody that can and give me a bottle of Grey Poupon and I'll have my iPad for lunch! Air currents, soft spots in the table, morons placing late bets and hands touching the dice, chip stack hits and the occasional unbalanced die all can affect the results.

    If the dice can be truly controlled then that person should be able to roll the exact same number anytime he or she wants to. If what they do is to have long rolls avoiding the seven, look at how the numbers making up the seven are arranged on the die. How would you control avoiding six combinations? All the time?

    Shooters get on good rolls all the time. Twice over the years I rolled for over 15 minutes. That's nothing for many but I attribute it to random numbers, not technique.

    If you generate a million random numbers between 1 and 36, simulating dice rolls, you'll find a few long sessions. Extended that out to a hundred million and there are three or four dice setters in your computer! Fantastic people with 40 minute sessions!

    That being said I did run into a guy with a knack for rolling yo's (I am keen on observation) once at the Orleans. At the end of the day I was down to one green chip. He and I were the only two at the table. I made the $25 yo bet. 6 and 5 came up! Just having that feeling and really only my initial $25 to lose I told the stick stiff to parlay it. They accepted the bet. Again, 6 and 5! I colored in since the hand hadn't started, tipped the table $100 and the shooter the same and danced my way to my room. A dice setter, influencer or just lucky? I don't know. I still wonder. He was a very big man, over 300 lbs, all I remember. Perhaps someone knows of him. This would be 2011 or 2012. Never have seen him again.
     
  12. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2007
    Messages:
    4,188
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    Here is the problem. Forgetting for the moment all the other variables that cannot be controlled, this is not enough.

    And if you were close enough to 'show a bias' to particular numbers, 7 (the number that con men selling books trackers and system claim you can reduce your chances of) would be the number LEAST likely to have its odds significantly varied.
    They must toss it at the exact same speed on the exact same trajectory with the exact same rate of rotation on the exact same axis to the exact same spot.
     
  13. Electroguy563

    Electroguy563 Over-Fried Gambler

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2011
    Messages:
    3,587
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    15
    Trying something is better than doing nothing is what I say. I've come to believe that you must be in the "present moment" when at the craps table. No matter who is shooting and who is not.
     
    Going to Hawaii's 9th Island!!
    Going to Hawaii's 9th island!!
  14. Gamesman

    Gamesman VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2014
    Messages:
    1,216
    Location:
    San Diego
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    30
    You're a smart man. I believe both are possible. I believe that Tiger was a great golfer, and he still is. But when he was in his prime I think that he believed that he could do things with a golf ball that others thought not possible. Now that he's lost his confidence he's mostly focused on improving the physical aspect of his game. But the physical aspect isn't what's lacking, it's his knowing that he can make that ball do exactly what he wants it to do.

    I live my life sticking with the logical side of things, that said, I do believe that a person can have influence over physical things by using their mind. I also believe firmly that some can "sense" the future.
     
  15. offandon

    offandon Tourist

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2011
    Messages:
    31
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    26
    If dice influencing is possible, even with 7s being just as likely it is still a huge moneymaker. I assume the premise to be that you can make one or both of the dice be influenced. If you can for example make one or both dice be significantly more likely to be a 4-6 rather than 1-3 you have a huge advantage in that you could over the long term have an advantage over the house on bets like placing 8,9,10, betting the 11,12, field, all tall, laying the 4,5,6, etc.
     
  16. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2007
    Messages:
    4,188
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    Right, but you can't.

    And the people trying to sell you systems and lessons and trackers claiming that you can tend to focus on (and have jargon for) how often you roll the 7. And the reason for that is simple. It is the outcome that people most easily understand how to profit off of, and its easy to trick people experiencing simple variance into thinking their 'method' is reducing 7s.

    And for the record, if you really can influence both dice to be higher or lower, that will move the 7 grudgingly. It will just move the others more.
     
  17. Hobofrank

    Hobofrank Prime Minister of Idiocracy

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2014
    Messages:
    3,234
    Location:
    Porter Ranch,CA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    100
    no the idea is to keep the dice together and spinning on the same horizontal axis in unison
    ( not one 180 deg out of sync) so as to avoid a 7 as best as possible
    and get any point number..the idea of controlling only one dice makes no sense to me (how only one?)

    so the dice set, throwing angle, grip and velocity/energy before hitting the wall before coming to rest are the main variables
    table/felt condition and shortest distance from the wall are easier to choose as a setter

    just going from a 7 out for every 6.134 throws to every 8 negates the house edge, IF you can consistently do it 90% of the time
     
  18. Gamesman

    Gamesman VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2014
    Messages:
    1,216
    Location:
    San Diego
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    30
    Right, a person can't influence the dice. A golfer also can't change a 30 yard chip. The ball is going to land and roll the same way everytime.
     
  19. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2007
    Messages:
    4,188
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    9
    If you need to bounce that chip against felt covered wood and then into a wall covered with tiny pyramids, and the goal is not to get it in the hole, but instead to have it finish with the blue dot you put above the logo facing directly up, then yeah, you can't influence it.
     
  20. buddhaluv

    buddhaluv Tourist

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2014
    Messages:
    47
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    20
    i have seen videos of the flip method where the shooter after years of practice throws the dice off the back wall without the spinning the dices and bounce once of the back wall and land on the optimal number a large percent of the time, enough to influence the bets, have seen several try this and not consistent enough. So yes it is possible, years of practice and may equate to small percent increase advantage.
     
Tags:
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.