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Building a Better Mouse Trap

Discussion in 'Misc. Vegas Chat' started by Ben Jammin, Jan 20, 2014.

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  1. Ben Jammin

    Ben Jammin VIP Whale

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    I'm always hearing of this and that system or variance to the basic strategy for any given game, from Craps to Roulette to Video Poker and on and on. I see Asians with their little score cards at the Gold Coast Baccarat table playing for days on end but to no avail.

    Doesn't matter what you do or how you do it the house is always going to get it's edge. Those casinos weren't built on winners.

    What it all boils down to?
    "Either you're lucky, or you're not."

    So, do what you will but learn to quit while you're ahead. That's the ticket.

    Get It?"
     
  2. jackincols

    jackincols Guest

    I've always said it's as important to know when to walk when you're winning as it is when you're getting your head handed to you, but I think there's a little more than just pure luck when it comes to playing 21 or VP.

    Any true gambler knows the house always has the edge, but knowing what to hold, when to hit, stand or double down on any given hand goes a long way to keeping your losses to a minimum.
     
  3. Royal Flusher

    Royal Flusher Savvy Gambler

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    I have had great results with the this or that system. :nworthy:
     
  4. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    I've been educating my gambling buddies on UTH, and I always warn them - if you keep playing long enough, the house edge will catch up with you. Set a "win-point" and color-out when you get there.

    With blackjack, there really is a "system" that will give you a slight edge, or make the game essentially a zero/minimal house-edge game...and that's playing near-perfect basic strategy and/or adjusting your bets based on the cards that have already been played & discarded.

    Even if you only keep up with the ten-value cards that are gone (or remaining), you will gain a small edge vs. only playing basic strategy.
    Simple version: DD game with a 50% penetration - assume there are 16 ten-value cards in play. When you see 8 of them go before half of the 'in-play' cards are dealt? Reduce your bet to the table minimum.
    Not a huge advantage, but better than not tracking at all...and it will help you!
    Once you get comfortable doing that, it's easy enough to also keep up with the small cards too! Raise your bet when the in-play cards are "ten-rich" and lower it when they are "small-card rich".
     
    Finally have the room booked! Look for me Feb 21-23
  5. dbvegas

    dbvegas Tourist

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    you can not turn an unfair (house edge) game into a fair game with gaming strategies. Sports betting can be good but you end up betting few games. Thus we play for entertainment and should stop when the fun ends. If you will regret the next bet if you lose then do not make that bet.
     
  6. xizor

    xizor Tourist

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    My only strategy has only ever been to never take any money to Vegas that I expect to return with.
     
  7. vegasvic

    vegasvic VIP Whale

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    I still see people using the Martingale system at blackjack and roulette. Sometimes the Fibonacci.
     
  8. Smo

    Smo Mr. Las Vegas

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    ^This.

    I'm so unlucky it's not even funny anymore. :rolleyes2:

    My favorite saying goes: "Winning is optional."
     
  9. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    Small Martingale would actually work, if there were no maximum limits set at the tables (and, of course, there are) and one had an incredibly large bankroll!

    One might intuitively think that a blackjack win would happen before hitting the table maximum. All I can tell you is that, more than once, I have lost 8+ hands in a row.
    (Most $25 tables have a max bet of $5000 for blackjack. Using small-martingale, here is an example: 25-50-100-200-400-800-1600-3200-*5000. If you lost 8 hands in a row, you could then bet $5000, but even if you win that, you'd still be down $1400.)

    Positive progressions can be fun, and reasonably risk-free if you do not double or split when basic-strategy says that you should. This is as close as one can get to a workable betting strategy, in my opinion.
    If it were me, playing a $25 table, I would bet like this:
    25-40-60, 25-40-60-100, 25-40-60, repeat pattern. Any loss resets to the beginning.
    I would start the pattern on a positive count, thereby improving my chances for a win on the very first hand, (which is critical).
    Which, of course, leads to this system's flaw - losing multiple "first hands".
    If you lose the first hand of this progression 4 times, you'll need $100 just to be even. If you win 3 hands in a row, you're up only $95. You would need to win 4 hands in a row at least once for every 4 losses on the first hand in order to be ahead (+$20).

    So - this might be worth trying 3 times. After that, if you're not successful, you're only down $75. If you succeed in making it through one 3-hand progression before that 3rd first-hand loss, then you'd be up.
     
    Finally have the room booked! Look for me Feb 21-23
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