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Table Games Blackjack routine: Not again!

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by SW, Nov 16, 2014.

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  1. SW

    SW Well-Known Member

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    This year, my play at the local casino's blackjack tables has falling into a routine. A routine that I would like to break.

    Buy in for 20 units. Play for 5-15 minutes, down 5-10 units. Play pretty much even with the dealer for another 15-30 minutes but still down 5-10 units. Then quickly down another 5-10 units and time to quit. Can't remember the last time I was up after the first 5-15 minutes. 20 units gone(flat betting) and not even at the table for 30 minutes in some cases.

    I know that gambling can be streaky but this is getting old. Or maybe it's just an old grumpy man complaining.
     
  2. BayouBengal

    BayouBengal VIP Whale

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    20 units only good for about a 10% risk of ruin over 1 hour. With 20 units it's hard to last more than an hour without hitting a nice streak early. It's easy to underestimate the required bankroll.
     
  3. Tree DA

    Tree DA High-Roller

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    10% risk of ruin sounds about right for an hour of play assuming about 100 hands in that hour. That's better than one per minute so at a crowded table you won't play that many. Anywhoo, 10% risk of ruin seems reasonably safe so for the OP to be ruined consistently after 30 minutes seems like a lot.

    Based on my experience, if I buy in for $200 at a $10 table and flat bet I generally get more than half an hour of entertainment from it. *knocks on wood*

    How many sessions has this happened, Steve?
     
  4. bubbakitty

    bubbakitty native Texan; born and bred.

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    Don't think of it as your routine alone. Seems when I used to play (which is seldom anymore due to THE routine) it always was down 2 or 3 units then plod along without much up or down then down to 4 or 5 units, rinse repeat and out. Used to love blackjack in the a.m. especially buying in to see if I could get a stake for breakfast which used to be a remarkable 60 % success (in my mind)......after a while it is just frustrating...long term heartache....but no, it is not just YOUR routine....
     
    1st Super Bowl DT...Panthers / Browns no doubt
  5. Big Tip

    Big Tip VIP Whale

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    Funny, I have that same routine! I alway seem to be three or four bets down.
    My video poker sessions seem to go the same way. I'll put $100 in, and be at about $90 for awhile, then lose $30 quickly, battle back to $90, then lose $50. Happens again and again.
     
  6. SW

    SW Well-Known Member

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    At least a dozen times.

    I do admit that I'm better at remembering the times it plays out this way than the times it didn't. I just wish the entertainment value of the money spent went a little longer when it does happen. C'est la vie.
     
  7. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    Steve - is this indian casino charging a (ridiculous) 50-cent vig payment per hand, win or lose? The ones in Oklahoma do this, and it's one reason I will never, ever play blackjack there.
    At 80 hands per hour, that's $40/hour.
    If your base bet is $10, then 4 units.
    If they do NOT charge this outrageous fee, then the question comes down to other rules... is it 6:5? Can you double any two cards?
    If the rules are basically 3:2, double any two, and you are consistently losing 4 or 5 units per hour - then it's time to look at your play - are you adhering to basic strategy? Are you betting hunches or "I've got a feeling about this one" type of hands?
    Are you getting comped drinks, or do you pay for every one, plus tip? Is your drink expense coming out of your gambling money?

    Lastly - and this is very unlikely, but possible - is this the same dealer every time? Is it possible that he or she is manipulating the cards to ensure a better outcome for the house?
    Probably not, but if you've eliminated all of the other impact items I listed, then this is something one must consider.
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
  8. Malibugolfer

    Malibugolfer High-Roller

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    Very well analyzed.
     
  9. SW

    SW Well-Known Member

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    No they do not charge that payment.​

    Six deck, pays 3:2, double on any two cards, can re split Aces, no surrender. ​

    I pay basic strategy correctly about 93-95% of time based on a blackjack trainer I use, http://www.blackjack-trainer.net/. I'm thinking that I need to practice more.​

    My drinks, 1-2 per session, are not comped. I do not pay for them with my gambling money. However, dealer tips do come out of my gambling money. Generally try to tip 1-2 units per session.​

    No worries there. My losses are to many different dealers.​
     
  10. Malibugolfer

    Malibugolfer High-Roller

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    Steve, while an incredible run of negative variance is possible, do make sure you know those 5 or 6 soft doubles and split plays that apply to the 6d game you are playing.
    It is imperative they are not some of the 5-7% of missed plays.
     
  11. SW

    SW Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps that's part of the problem as I do not make adjustments to my play based on the number of decks used. Time to hit the books again and a little harder!

    Thanks for the help steering in the right direction guys!
     
  12. Terry Benedict

    Terry Benedict VIP Whale

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    Wow, it's not just me. Same routine. Lately I've been lucky at the craps table and won my money back.
     
  13. LakeMinnetonkaRealtor

    LakeMinnetonkaRealtor Tourist

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    To battle this situation, I changed to buying in for 8 units. That way if the action isn't going my way I'm done quicker.
     
  14. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    As a rule, I sit down at a table with 20 units available. (in my case, that's $200).
    I rarely buy in for $200 - I buy in for $100 & do the second hundred if I lose the first...
    I think to overcome variance in blackjack (I play 2-deck), 20 units is about right.
    Play solid basic strategy. Even if you don't want to "count", just pay attention to how many ten-value cards you see (or not!), and adjust your bets accordingly - higher for a ten-rich deck, lower for a ten-poor deck.
    Doing this, I have far more winning sessions than losing sessions... not huge wins, mind you - but wins nonetheless.
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
  15. Tree DA

    Tree DA High-Roller

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    Do you have strict win and loss limits that you stick to? I try to walk away when I'm up or down 50% of my buy-in (usually 20 units) but if I'm up 10 units within the first 10 minutes I will rarely quit at that point.
     
  16. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    When I get to +$100, (10 units), I protect $80. When I get to $200, I protect $160... and so on.
    On the losing side, if I lose my $200, I leave. I will leave earlier if the table isn't "fun" or if I just don't like it.
    Sometimes, I'll leave after just 2 or 3 losing hands if there's an obnoxious player there.

    I'll be honest - most of the time, I never have to go into my 2nd hundred...because I'm either up $80 (or more), or I don't care for the table/dealer/other player(s) and I leave early.

    Sometimes, I'll lose the 1st hundred very quickly...& almost every time that happens, I immediately buy in for the 2nd hundred.
    ...but I won't lose more than $200 in a single $10/base-bet session.

    PS - seems like most of the time I spend playing blackjack, I hang around in the "down-40 to up-80" range...sometimes for hours! But hey - I'm drinkin' "free", right?
    :beer:
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
  17. Naturaleight

    Naturaleight High-Roller

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    If you guys want to win at blackjack learn to count. It's a lot easier than the casinos/movies make it appear. The easiest counting system out IMHO is Red Seven. Sorry, but the truth of the matter is your going to lose by just playing basic strategy, albeit slowly. They didn't build the casinos on winners. Heres more info on Red Seven:http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/How%20toCount.htm
     
  18. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    Agree.
    What I try to tell anyone (who will listen) is to at least keep track of the ten-value cards.
    Even if that's all you do, and you adjust your bets up for ten-rich decks and down for ten-poor decks, you will do better than flat-betting with basic strategy alone.
    There are 16 ten-value cards per deck.
    Look at the cut. How many decks are cut away?
    Multiply the number of decks in play x 16.

    So, let's say it's a two-deck game, with one deck cut away... 16 ten-value cards.
    So, for about every thirteen cards dealt, there should be about 4 ten-value cards.
    If a hand is dealt (early) and the ratio is lower (say, 1 or 2 ten-cards out 13 dealt), raise your bet.
    Flip side: if a hand is dealt where you see a higher ratio of tens - say 6 or 7 out of 13 - lower your bet.

    When playing two-deck with 3 total players + the dealer, you typically get about 13 cards dealt per hand. So, you're only going to get 4 or 5 hands before the shuffle.
    If you just watch the tens in the first and second hands dealt, you will know how you should bet for subsequent hands.
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
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