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Table Games BJ best play

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by shifter, Jul 18, 2012.

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  1. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    god forbid anyone play 6:5 BJ, but if you were for whatever reason, would it be a better play to double down on a BJ against a dealer stiff card or take the 6:5 payout?
     
  2. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    You would stand.

    Its better to have a guaranteed win than just a chance to win.

    Best way to look at it is: you wouldn't split a 20 against a dealer 5 or 6 and that's just a good hand, not a guaranteed win.
     
  3. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    maybe, maybe not. the double isn't guaranteed, but when you do win, you win double. so, what's the EV between the 2?
     
  4. JillyFromPhilly

    JillyFromPhilly Tourist

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    I doubt anyone playing 6:5 blackjack is putting that much thought into it - or would even understand why that would be an option to consider.
     
  5. HuskerBB

    HuskerBB Low-Roller

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    My initial reaction has always been that it might be a good play - but people have said the numbers don't play out that way. The splitting 10's example is valid - not quite as good a double hand, but also potentially a loser to a dealer 21 or a push to a dealer 20 while the BJ is a guaranteed winner vs the dealer 6.

    Played with a guy at the local casino a few months ago who liked to double BJ's vs a dealer 5 or 6 (this was at a 3:2 table). Tried to tell me it had been a winning play for him - although did not work out while I was there. Then he got pissed at me when I hit a 13 to a dealer 12 (I know not the optimum play but pretty close to a 50/50 option and one where I will play a hunch occassionally when I think the deck is right). He sat out 2 or 3 hands after that because he was mad and wanted to "reset" the deck. Dealer busted every hand he sat out.
     
  6. y2mulder

    y2mulder Low-Roller

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    Absolutely double in the right environment......like the count being in your favor. But I would only play 6:5 with 1-2 decks.

    6 or 8 decks? Punt and take the free money.
     
  7. Bruinfan1

    Bruinfan1 Tourist

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    If I'm not overthinking this too much, it should be the average of Wizard of Odds' dealer probabilities against a 6 for each of the player's resulting hands 12-21, with 21 weighted 4x. Not scientific since cards are in play, but pretty close, right? For a 120% return (220% original bet), you'd have to win 80%, lose 20% of the hands dealt since you have a winning hand already (no chance of a push). Is that right? (80% x 3 original bet = 240%, 20% x -1 (not zero - you doubled!) original bet = -20%)

    If it's a DD H17, the dealer busts 43.9% of the time. Since dealer has 17 11.5% of the time, and you have 18-21 53.8%, that's 6.2% win right there. 5.2% win on dealer 18, 4.4% on dealer 19, 3.4% on dealer 20. Looks like player wins 62.8% of the time. Pushes (4.3%) and player busts (0.0%), plus player losses of 32.9%. Sorry, total chips in your hands is just 159.8% of original bet if my math's right - this isn't a good bet at 1:1 BJ, never mind 6:5.

    Put another way:
    100 @6:5 = win 220; net $120

    100 x 2 = 200, win 400 net 200 x 62.8% = $125.6
    100 x 2 = 200, push 200 net 0 x 4.3% = 0
    100 x 2 = 200, lose 0 net -200 x 32.9% = $-65.8
    Total net = $59.80

    Or I could be completely off.... :drunk:

    If you're thinking that with the cards out in DD that the player's odds improved...you just took a face card for your BJ w/ only 3 cards known (A/10/6). Players odds just went down, right? But if the count's enough in your favour, anything's possible....
     
  8. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    so never give up a winning hand. makes sense.

    there was a guy doing this (doubling BJ against a stiff) at a table my buddy was playing at. i told him he should only play 3:2, but he likes single deck for some reason and you can only find it 6:5 at $25 min, so he plays it anyway.
     
  9. Llew

    Llew Low-Roller

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    There's no common rule combination that makes doubling a blackjack a good bet.

    You're looking at about a +65-70% return on your bet when you double 11 (or soft 21) vs. a 6 (best case scenario for player). This is obviously not as good as +120% from the 6:5 blackjack payout.
     
  10. Bruinfan1

    Bruinfan1 Tourist

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    Oops...missed the push %.

    Dealer wins only 30.0% of the time. Pushes 6.8% of the time. (Rounding error somewhere, or probably more bad math.)

    Still gives just a 65% return, still bad bet unless the count is very skewed.
     
  11. numeno

    numeno VIP Whale

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    Wouldn't this mean there are times where it is better to double?

    I'll assume 65% return.


    $10 bet


    $10 + 6/5 payoff = $22 = $12 win
    $10 + $10(double) = $20 + 65% = $33 = $13 win


    Now it is possible that 65% return is off, but that seems reasonable for certain cards. I'd be surprised if it was worthwhile against a 9/10/A, but a 4/5/6 seems like it might be positive.
     
  12. Tubbs

    Tubbs High-Roller

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    Yep, that's about it. My figures for single deck H17 with 6:5 BJ show 67.9% return on original bet for doubling BJ v dealer 6. At 6:5 the return for the BJ is obviously 120% so doubling gives up $5.21 for each $10 bet. Ouch!
     
  13. WrongWayWade

    WrongWayWade VIP Whale

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    NEVER double in any environment. Even against the dealer's worst card (a 6), you expect to win 0.67912 units by doubling, and 1.2000 units by taking the blackjack. There isn't ANY count that could overcome this (unless you knew EVERY card remaining was a 10, and even then you risk a push). Against the dealer's best card (an Ace), you only expect to win 0.13722 units by doubling.
     
  14. HOUtoLAS

    HOUtoLAS Low-Roller

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    This is from wizardofodds FAQ


    I heard the other day that if you’re playing a 6:5 game (or the even money game at Rio), you should double down when dealt a natural to help offset the lower payout. Is this correct? What would the expected loss be for that play?
    — Anonymous

    This would be a terrible play. For example if you doubled on a blackjack against a 5 (six decks dealer stands on soft 17) your expected gain would be 0.622362, according to my blackjack appendix 9I. So even in an even money game this would still be an error costing about 38% of the bet.
     
  15. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Your math is assuming that when you don't win, you push. But in fact, you lose, which subtracts from the "expected" win.
     
  16. NickPapageorgio

    NickPapageorgio OG of the Sal Sagev Hotel

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    I know this board is ful of 6/5 haters, but the victory pays a 20% premium compared to 50%. For most vegas visitors it's all the same. I'm a DD/ DAS guy, and these days won't play anything but.

    On a $10 bet, the difference is $3. I would dare say that most blackjack "experts" lose far more on questionable play than their $3 deficit on $10 blackjack victories. I'm not talking black chip double deck players at Mirage.... They usually call it right. I'm talking the champions of the sport that sit down to the 6/5 $10 tables.... It doesn't matter for them. They lose their $100 buyin within 10-20 minutes and walk.

    As far as doubling blackjacks on a 6/5 table, no way. You are getting paid a premium.

    Nick:beer:
     
  17. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Yeah, I think this is likely doubly wrong.

    First, I'm not sure whether I'd go through all the bother of counting if I'm going to play a 6:5 game. Even with 1-2 decks there will be a low penetration point, leaving few opportunities. And with the higher house edge I'd imagine you'd need to go from min to max bet on a good count to get over the expected break even (if you even could), making what you are doing pretty obvious.

    Second, you'd need such a high count as to push the odds of winning the double to 80%+ before you reach the expected break even point. I don't know how full of tens the deck would have to be before that happened but I'd imagine its a lot.

    Third, you'd need a counting system that did 10s and Aces separately (making it more work), as they would behave very differently for the EV of your double.


    I think this is one of those thing that FEELS like its a good play without ever actually being one.
     
  18. merlin

    merlin VIP Whale

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    It's not all the same, sure it's only $3 but how many BJ's are you going to get each trip? You should get at least 3 per hour(more if you're alone or with only a person or two), multiply that by 3-4 hours per day and you get at least a $100 for the trip.

    Add in that most people dont flat bet, but will have numerous bets more than $10 and it goes higher still. A $10 bettor who sometimes gets his bet up to $25 - $50 could be out several hundred per trip.

    If 6/5 doesn't matter, then you should also insure every hand, split tens and double 12's, it's only a little money and you're there to have fun, right?
     
  19. NickPapageorgio

    NickPapageorgio OG of the Sal Sagev Hotel

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    Merlin, my man. Your analogy at the end is a tad bit extreme. Playing 6/5 isn't synonymous with doubling on 12.

    I agree with you, but you are comparing apples to oranges. Most idiots that sit down at 6/5 blackjack tables won't realize an advantage or disadvantage, because they won't get the required action due to their play and limited bankrolls. Again, I'm not talking experienced blackjack players. Again, most vegas visitors misplay hands and play as far away from basic strategy as possible. The 6/5= 20% versus 3/2= 50% premium isn't the problem for them. Also, most vegas visitors that buyin for $100 at the 6/5 tables at Bills, Harrahs, IP, Ripoff junction won't last to see 3 blackjacks per hour, because they rebuy once, get wiped out and walk. I've seen it over and over and over.

    You and I play the game man... We know the odds and the difference in games, and we are educated gamblers. Most visitors are losing, plan on losing and are going to continue to lose. 6/5 tables are packed with 'em.

    Don't play at them... I rarely do. I play only DD/ DAS games, unless i've had a few and the hottie dancer above the 6/5 table catches my eye. Victory for the house!

    Nick:beer:
     
  20. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    well if you're going to lose your entire bankroll anyway (as most Vegas-goers do), exactly what odds you play doesn't matter as long as you have fun.
     
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