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Betting with Money Line??

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by RiddickBull, Dec 9, 2013.

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  1. RiddickBull

    RiddickBull VIP Whale

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    I noticed when I bet sports, I can call the winner 9/10 times. The problem is covering the spread. I know if you loose, you loose big. Betting on a -800 line will kill you if it is an upset.

    Has anyone tried sports betting using the ML and been successful? Do you think the strategy to wager less on the spread to win the same amount is better? Is the risk worth the reward?

    Example:
    Denver was -700 (ML) vs Titans yesterday.
    ML $7k to win $1k or bet $1k to win ~$1k on the spread (juice takes out a little).
     
  2. jimboguy

    jimboguy Blubbery Whale

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    I haven't ever bet the money line on a favorite. But I do bet it occasionally on the dog. For example, UCLA vs USC (college football) over Thanksgiving weekend. UCLA was +170 on the money line, so I took UCLA.
     
  3. captainron62

    captainron62 VIP Whale

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    I always bet NFL using money line. Its tough enough to pick a winner, let alone worry about getting killed by a late field goal or safety or some other silliness.
     
  4. bsnm

    bsnm Tourist

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    When in this situation, I opt for the teaser. Assuming there is more than 1 team I am willing to bet and I like the spread better after the tease.
     
  5. smartone

    smartone VIP Whale

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    M/L bets are the way to go when you smell an upset brewin'
     
  6. slimmy28

    slimmy28 Low-Roller

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    When I like an underdog, I usually will bet the point spread but will also have a little on the Moneyline as well. I have dabbled with favorite Moneyline Parlays in the past. It "seems" like its a great idea, but it's surprising how many "sure things" or "no way they lose" games actually don't win and all it takes is one loss to tear up that bet. Personally now, I try to stay away from Moneyline favorites, but occasionally still stray from that thinking, but not nearly as much as I used to.
     
  7. FXT

    FXT VIP Whale

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    There was a guy doing MLs over march madness last year on covers. He'd win probably 8/10 bets but in the end broke about even. Too much risk to just break even imo. Now MLs are great for parlays but even then you have to sweat out games like the Browns/Pats (-500) this weekend.
     
  8. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I stay away from NFL moneylines. Just too many long odd upsets to do well in the long run.

    But if you are talking moneylines in general, that is how most gamblers bet MLB. I'm not a huge baseball fan, but I have consistently made money every summer betting MLB moneylines because there are a lot of stats you can analyze to handicap the game and the long season can lead to small errors by the sportsbook that the player can take advantage of
     
  9. Rush

    Rush High-Roller

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    I have a friend who makes money almost every year betting M/Ls.

    He start with a couple thousand, and works his way up to 4 or 5 grand by the end of the season. (The downside is....he has went broke a couple of times.)

    He simply isn't afraid to risk $3,000 to win back $400. The lone hiccup he has had this year was betting Atlanta on a Monday night game when they were about a 12 point favorite and they lost. (He lost $1,000 on the game) He is up to just under $5,000 as of last night. His last game was San Fran for a grand on Sunday.

    He doesn't bet every week, and he never bets for "action". He bets when he thinks he has a "sure thing". I think he is going to go small from here on out, because he wants to cash out at $5,000. He wants the bankroll for Vegas over the Super Bowl.
     
  10. JustNgo

    JustNgo Low-Roller

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    Was in town with 10 other UCLA alums. Betting on that game was oh so sweet! We didn't realize how many bet on SC until they finally scored a touchdown....and the whole book cheered...
     
  11. broncofn

    broncofn VIP Whale

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    Imho if you are going to play big favorites on the ML, it is going to come back and bite you. I am usually an underdog, RLM (reverse line movement), and percentage player. But betting on strictly ML is not as easy as it sounds.

    There is a forum (covers.com) and post this question on there also and see what responses you get regarding this topic. This is a sports wagering forum.
     
  12. broncofn

    broncofn VIP Whale

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    In your example, denver won your play risking 7k to win 1k. On money lines there is no juice, you are playing the moneyline, not the spread at -110. Regardless, you were a winner. But who in their right mind would lay 7k to win 1k? What would have happened tonite if you bet denver on the moneyline again at almost the same odds?
     
  13. broncofn

    broncofn VIP Whale

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    Sorry, misread what you wrote. But yes, i would take the team on the spread instead of the moneyline. Unless you want to reduce your juice and for instance do a moneyline parlay of 2 teams but i also would not do that.
     
  14. Readingfanman

    Readingfanman Low-Roller

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    Plent of people would lay 7k to win 1k. If the odds represent value, then people will do it. It's how professional gamblers manage to beat bookies consistently, by making sure that they only bet when the odds are in the bettor's favour.

    Not that I'm saying the odds for Denver in either scenario were worth betting on, I believe in the UK yesterday Denver were priced up as -500 (Is that right? $500 bet to win $100 in profit?). Pretty poor odds against a very up and down Chargers side who have pulled out a big win this season vs KC already this year.
     
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  15. sabre

    sabre Low-Roller

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    No you can't.
     
  16. hillwood24

    hillwood24 High-Roller

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    He could if he sticks to college football money lines and only bets when Bama and Florida State play nobodies.
     
  17. RiddickBull

    RiddickBull VIP Whale

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    Are you sure? The spread is what makes it difficult. I don't bet 10 games per week. Maybe 1-3 depending on the games.

    Example, I called every DEN win. I didn't bet when they played the colts, which was an easy non-bet. I took NE with +3 so that would be another victory. NE plus points = I'll take any day. I got burned on the Carolina game though.

    I have mostly took the spread when I bet football. Hockey and MLB, I always take the ML. Basketball is a mix.
     
  18. SirSwizzlestick

    SirSwizzlestick Low-Roller

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    This is hilarious, no disrespect. Laying that much money is the biggest square (aka moron) bet you can make, and zero professionals would ever do it.
     
  19. Readingfanman

    Readingfanman Low-Roller

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    I know a few professionals who will lay any odds if they know they have an advantage. Granted, they are unlikely to lay 7k, but if they have knowledge of the market, and the odds are in their favour, then there is no reason why they wouldn't. As long as it was a suitable proportion of their bankroll.
     
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  20. vegasqc

    vegasqc VIP Whale

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    7 k to win 1K isnt that bad i know people in the horse racing game betting 10K to win 500$ ( 10000$ on a horse to show pays 10500$)
     
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