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Table Games Best game to shoot for 4 wins in a row

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by Leonard_Bets, Mar 12, 2016.

  1. Leonard_Bets

    Leonard_Bets Tourist

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    I'm excited for another trip around the corner next weekend and got some idea about the first bet throwing a $100 down somewhere and committing to pressing it 4x to start off if it wins with a cool $1600 the ultimate goal. I know the chance of winning any hand 4 times in a row is very unlikely. It's just a first bet that I want to have fun with. I wanted to get some thoughts on which game folks would do this on. Which game would be best to target? My choices I was thinking to go with are: black on roulette, baccarat player, blackjack, or pass, or don't pass on craps. What would be folks thoughts as easiest for 4 in a row even though unlikely. I'm a long time visitor here, but this is my first post so be nice. Thanks.
     
  2. SH0CK

    SH0CK Stylin' and Profilin' Quasi Tech Admin

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    If I was in you shoes, I might give the field bet in craps a look as well. Especially if they pay triple on a 2 or 12.
     
  3. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    More than anything else, I've have seen a 6 or an 8 rolled four times before a 7 so many times, I've lost count.
    So - that's probably my best advice - put down a minimum pass-line bet, Wait for the point to hit. Then take a $96 6 or 8... if the point happens to be a 6 or 8, put $100 behind the line for odds (if 20x permitted, as it is at MSS).

    After each hit, parlay it. (If it's an odds bet, then place $198 on a 6 or 8 after the next point is hit.)
    Then $402 on the next one.
    Then $810 on the last one.
    Since you'll be paid 7-to-6, on each hit:
    Bet #1 will net you $112, but you're only parlaying $102. +$10
    Bet #2 will net you $231, but you're only parlaying $204. +$27
    Bet #3 will net you $469, but you're only parlaying $408. +$61

    Even if you're 4th bet loses, you will have recovered $98 of your $100.
    If it hits, you net $1755 after taking the bet down...+ the $98 for $1853 total, for a $1753 total win.
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
  4. voltron12

    voltron12 Low-Roller

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    Blackjack isnt a bad option for the chance of a bj to get a little extra. But not playing perfect strategy when a double down or split chance comes up could hurt your odds. Craps might not be a bad option putting a 100 place bet on 4,5,9 or 10. And keep letting it ride every time it hits. You will get some extra pay this way with the odds. If you place the 6 or 8 do it with 108.00. Then every time you press it you will pull back a little bit. 18.00 the first time and so one. That way if you hit 2 or 3 times but not the full 4 times, you will get a decent amount of the 108 back. If you do the 4,5,9,10 you will only need about 3 to 3.5 wins in a row if you press all of it everytime to get close to 1600. If I was doing something like you are talking about with the ultimate goal of a huge payday from a 100 investment, that would be the option I would pick. Plus the craps table will have some nice excitement cheering and it will also be a little more drawn out.
     
  5. voltron12

    voltron12 Low-Roller

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    Looks like top had a similiar Idea I had. Doing the full odds bet is a better idea than the place bet if there are still any 100 times odds tables. You will get paid more on every hit with that odds than with a place bet.
     
  6. 63hearts

    63hearts Low-Roller

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    Baccarat wait till you feel four banks coming and throw down
     
  7. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Banker in baccarat. Ties are pushes, Banker theoretically wins 50.6% of the rest. 6.6% probability of winning 4 in a row.

    You could bet Player instead at 49.4% and avoid the commission. 6% probability of winning 4 in a row.
     
  8. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Avoid BJ because you may to split to maximize the play. I agree with the bac banker approach, but only if you are willing to pay the commission. If not, bac player is the way to go
     
  9. LV_Bound

    LV_Bound VIP Whale

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    I like the Craps place bet of the 6 or 8.
     
  10. voltron12

    voltron12 Low-Roller

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    If you did want to do this at blackjack, I would suggest finding a freebet blackjack game. That way if a double down or split chance comes up it will be free (the house covers it). This also will also pay 3/2 on bjs. It would be pretty awesome to win 3 in a row and have 800 out there and get a free split. Then get 3-4 hands and get a couple free doubles on a couple of them and then get a dealer bust. Could turn that 100 into 3200.
     
  11. Leonard_Bets

    Leonard_Bets Tourist

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    I appreciate the responses. Although BJ is my favorite game, I agree I'm reluctant to go for this in this scenario because I'm a discipled basic strategy player and I've played enough to know when I don't want to have to double or split on my $800 bet I'd get an 11 or 2 eights. I'm normally a seeker of choosing the best odds type player and it's sounding like baccarat is coming in as front runner as I would suspect. I do normally prefer banker, but I have this faulty vision in my head of walking away with 1600 and not a dollar less. I'll have to make up my mind about banker or player. The 6 or 8 bet is also very intriguing and tempting. Chuck or anyone else for comparison sake do you know what are the probability of the 6 or 8 on craps and/or black on roulette hitting 4 times?
     
  12. Leonard_Bets

    Leonard_Bets Tourist

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    For what it's worth this bet will happen at Pallazzo en route to room right after receiving keys for those who know the craps conditions are there as I forget what they allow for odds bets on craps.
     
  13. Leonard_Bets

    Leonard_Bets Tourist

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    Voltron I like that idea as well and let's stay away from dealer 22 also lol.
     
  14. Fet297

    Fet297 Vegas is my happy place!

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    Are ties really pushes?
     
    First trip for 2017!
  15. Royal Flusher

    Royal Flusher Savvy Gambler

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    If you want to hit even numbers you could do red or black on roulette and hedge the 0/00.

    I like the place the 6 idea though.
     
  16. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    I don't know how to calculate that, but the mean number of rolls per shooter including the seven-out is 8.5, let's call it 8. Which means 7 rolls before the 7 occurs, on average.

    So, if you're on the six, the shooter has to roll the six 4 times in 7 rolls. The probability of a six on any given roll is 14%. My gut tells me the probability of rolling the six four times in seven rolls is significantly smaller than the bacc prospect.

    I'm sure it's not the right calc, but if you take the probability of rolling the six 4 times in a row, and double it because you have 7 rolls to work with, that only comes out to about 0.8%
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2016
  17. Aces and Eights

    Aces and Eights VIP Whale

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    If I'm not mistaken, the probability of rolling four 6s or four 8s before a 7 is (5/11)^4 = 4.3%.
     
  18. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Yep, that looks right. Pulled this from the Wizard's site and substituted in the numbers for this problem.


    Original (the original question was what is the probability of rolling six 7's before a 12 is thrown):

    The probability of rolling a 7 is 1/6, and the probability of rolling a 12 is 1/36. The probability of rolling a 7, given that a roll is a 7 or 12 is (1/6)/((1/6)+(1/36)) = 6/7. So the probability that the first six times a 6 or 12 is rolled it is a 6 every time is (6/7)6 = 39.66%.


    Substituting to get probability of rolling four 6's before a 7 is thrown:

    The probability of rolling a 6 is 5/36, and the probability of rolling a 7 is 1/6. The probability of rolling a 6, given that a roll is a 6 or 7 is (5/36)/((5/36)+(1/6)) = 5/11. So the probability that the first four times a 6 or 7 is rolled it is a 6 every time is (5/11)^4 = 4.3%
     
  19. bardolator

    bardolator Lifelong Low Roller

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    The most consecutive hands I have won was 6 at BJ, with craps a close second at 5.

    The BJ streak occurred in a shoe game at Venetian. This was more than 10 years ago. I was not counting (I'm not nearly good enough to count into a shoe), betting flat, and losing. A couple dumbass conventioneers were at the table with more watching. There was one spot open. A guy came up with a mixed stack and started betting wildly. He told everybody to bet big because he was going to win. I went with it and upped my bets. He won 6 in a row betting various amounts, then bet small, lost, and left. By then I was ahead.

    It could have been pure luck or he might have Wonged in with a partner counting at first base or standing among the watchers. Six consecutive hands with a favorable count at a full table could never happen at DD. You'd run out of cards. Also, in a shoe game, the deck rarely gets as good as it can at DD or SD, but if it does, it can stay that way for a while, unlike SD or DD where things change really fast.

    Could you do the same thing today? I don't know. It would be very tough to pull off working alone.
     
  20. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    I'd do $100 Craps field bet, or $100 Baccarat Player bet.
     
    Palace Tower Suite!