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Video Poker Bankroll for Triple Play 5 Dollar JOB

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by Truman, Feb 23, 2014.

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  1. Truman

    Truman Tourist

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    I have been using the WinPoker JOB trainer to determine bankroll requirements for a 3 day trip. I have been using the Triple Play basic JOB at the 5 Dollar level and the variance I have experienced indicates a 5k bankroll should be sufficient.
    I would expect daily play in the 3-4 hour range.

    Am I safe or do I need rethink my play denomination?
     
  2. Grasp

    Grasp Low-Roller

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    Need a few more variables to figure this out.

    How many hands per hour to do you expect to play?
    What is your error percentage?

    Assuming perfect play, 3 days, 4 hours per day and 400 hands per hour you will go broke with a 5K bankroll 75% of the time (per VPW). This may be somewhat offset depending on slot club benefits. In general, $5K seems to be inadequate for this play.
     
  3. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Just to be clear, you mean playing $75 per round ($25/hand x 3 hands), correct?

    When people say they are playing at the $5 level, that traditionally means credit size and each hand requires 5 credits.

    If you meant playing 3 hands at the dollar level ($5/hand x 3 hands), $5000 will go a lot further.
     
  4. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    Negatory good buddy
    I take $50 to play 3 hours on nickle triple play...
    So, extrapolate that out. You'll need $5000 PER SESSION.
     
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  5. VegasDave

    VegasDave Addicted

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    Payouts typically get better at the higher levels. Probably not good enough to offset that variance but would last longer still.
     
  6. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    To be honest, I wouldn't expect $50 to survive a lot on 3-play nickels, but I'm ill-equipped to do the math.

    I'm too cheap/poor to buy "Video Poker for Winners"...:eek: Probably should though.
     
  7. dankyone

    dankyone VIP Whale

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    This just feels under bankrolled--I have played $1 5 play and blown through $1000 very quickly.
     
  8. Truman

    Truman Tourist

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    Figure closer to 300 hands/hr, at 75.00 per hand I don't want to bring a lot of mistakes into the mix. 100% is my goal but 99% is closer to reality based on the WinPker user statistics for approx 300K in play. Based on experimentation the triple play JOB seems to have reasonable variance compared to DDB and the triple play provides an extra level of stimulation over single line play
     
  9. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    Truman,
    Trust me, $5000 would be your roll for ONE session
    Fwiw, the 5c triple-play I play is 9/6 JoB, and I also play +99% accurate
    1000 "units" is necessary to survive the swings of playing 15 "units" per shot. (Even with a very low variance of 9/6 JoB Multi-Play)
    With $3000 you could handle 3 days of $1 triple-play perfectly.
     
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  10. mrstealth

    mrstealth High-Roller

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    Have you ever played "live" vp before ? What is the normal level you play at ?

    assuming you are going to achieve a 99% return over such a small sample (3 - 4 hours over 3 days) is highly unlikely. Sure, you could get lucky, but odds are against you.

    I would say that $5,000 even at single line $5 over 3 days would probably be too low, but as Tim Speed states, $5,000 per session would be more realistic.
     
  11. Truman

    Truman Tourist

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    Yes I have played live over the last 15 trips but I have not focused my play on VP. Normal play level has been 1 Dollar with +/- results, a little more negative than positive but I attributed this to the fact that play is often on 8/5 JOB rather than 9/6. In January I was at Aria playing playing single level 2 Dollar machines and 1 Dollar triple play. If memory serves me the triple play outside their HL Room was 9/5 JOB. My results in January were decent with small overall win. I realize my personal live sample means little in the overall scheme of things but it is gambling and the lure of a larger payoff is driving my plan. That being said I don't want to hurt myself unnecessarily by diving into water I can't swim out of. The fact that the WinPoker statistics show only a 3k loss on 300k of play has sparked this little brainchild of a plan.

    I can afford to throw 5k away to negative variance but 3 or 4k more than that is going to spoil my Vegas party.

    Has Winpoker caused me to have a little pipe dream?
     
  12. kiwiboy1

    kiwiboy1 Low-Roller

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    Aria has 9/6 JOB at the $5 level. So if you are going to play triple play there on 9/6 JOB and let's assume 0.5% error rate since you say that you aren't close to perfect.

    Let's assume 300 hands dealt per hour (a total of 900 hands), with 4 hours of play each day over 3 days. This gives us a total of 3600 dealt hands at $75 a hand for $270,000 coin in.

    Now your expected loss is $2,700 due to the edge and error rate. However...

    Let's assume you hit no royals (very likely) and no straight flushes (quite possible) but you hit all your quads, full houses and flushes. Then your loss rate would jump from 1% to 4.5% which would mean a loss of $12,150 and you haven't even been "unlucky". It possible the same scenario above occurs AND you only get half of the quads you need (this happens more than I would like!). If this were the case your loss would jump to 7% or $18,900.

    If you carried $20K you should be able to survive some bad luck and still meet your goal.
     
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