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Table Games Baccarat Patterns - Real or Fake??

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by casinoboy, Sep 2, 2013.

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  1. casinoboy

    casinoboy Low-Roller

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    i want to start playing baccarat and try to win a lot of money on it! so im reading about it online and about patterns that baccarat players look for and bet on them or against them. they have lots of diffrent names for the patterns too.

    are patterns real or fake in baccarat?? is it like roullette where it doesnt matter if it goes red red red the next one can still be red or black?

    if you can see a pattern should you bet with it or against it or does it matter?

    whats the best way to bet in baccarat,is it parlaying?

    do you have any good advice you wish you knew when you were a baccarat noob?

    cheers :beer:
     
  2. paperposter

    paperposter VIP Whale

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    personaly i belive its fake .odds are banker so thats what i usually play but i belive its all random.

    same as roulette you can see a pattern red or black but thats just pure luck


    and you have know controll of the out come like you do in bj thats why i like bj more
     
  3. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    Depends on the shuffle used and the side bets available.

    A baccarat table with Pair Bets and Tie bets will be different from what you will see at an EZ Bac table. A Dragon Bonus table with half to one deck cut will be different from a table with the old 14-card cut with just a side tie bet.

    In baccarat is not just about finding patterns. You will lose playing by focusing on the surface. The magic sauce is the ability to find the patterns within the patterns. A level or two deeper from what you see from the surface. That is how you can be consistently profitable. Something that is not focused on at the moment because no one has the faintest idea on how to approach this. Once you do you can pretty much extract some good amount of coin at the tables with minimal risk and sacrifice. The patterns will not happen all the time but if happens most of the time and you extract say three to four units out with just flat betting the table minimum, you will do pretty well. I mean for instance if you have a method to play just the first row and get 3/4 units and the discipline to leave right after even for just 8 minutes of play for that shoe things will be pretty good especially in Vegas since you can go casino hopping and do some major hit and run. By the end of the trip you will realize you got some good change.
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2013
  4. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    While some gamblers have certain beliefs and superstitions, the truth is that it is like roulette. Each hand is an independent event. And unlike BJ, where card counting can help, it doesn't really help in bac.

    That being said, it seems like every shoe will go on banker or player streaks of four or more with some regularity. Anyone who believes the "pattern" predicts the next hand is simply wrong. The being said, if I see either side go on a streak of three or more hands, I play on that side until it loses. I know that a streak doesn't make that same side any more likely to win the next hand, but I would personally rather bet with a streak (in case it is a long one) than against it.
     
  5. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    of course, if you look back at a most shoes you'll see patterns. but just because something happens 10 times or 100 times doesn't mean it's going to happen the next. so you can't use patterns to "predict" anything. however, you can win a lot of money at Bacc if you bet on a pattern to continue and it does. of course, you can lose a lot of money at Bacc if you bet on a pattern to continue and it doesn't.

    I define a "good shoe" as one that has definable patterns that continue throughout the shoe. if you can bet second line bank, for example, and hit 10 in a row, that's how you win a lot of money. a bad shoe is one where patterns start to develop and hit 2 or 3 times and as soon as you can see it and you start to bet it, then it breaks. those are the shoes where you can lose 10 hands in a row and blow your entire bankroll in 30 minutes.
     
  6. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    That is a good example. The second hand bank play. Back when it was a just 14-card cut as opposed to the half to one deck cut today, the second hand bank play was one of the patterns to play. Well actually having a way to play the second roll altogether you always come out on the positive side assuming you don't have wild swings in your wagers.

    Then the introduction of the Dragon Bonus where the shuffle changed to the half to one deck cut. The shuffle was changed because folks were able to card count the Dragon Bonus nearing the end of the shoe. Because of this change in shuffle the second roll play was neutralized and if you continued to play this pattern you are going to get smoked and at the very best you are just up one unit excluding commissions.

    Yet the funny thing happened. The second hand play game back. That is at the EZ Bac tables because instead of the half to one deck cut, it is a two deck cut. With the two deck cut, not only there is the return of the second hand play but the results are clumped up with a possible long streak of Banker or Player in that clump.

    So now I have a theory and will look into things further. The question is does the second hand play happen when the deck is even (6/8 deck) as opposed to an odd deck (7/7.5).
     
  7. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    What does second line bank mean? I just googled it and only reference was right back to this board, to a thread from a couple years ago mentioning it but not describing it.
     
  8. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    That is bank in the second line means.

    Something like this....

    BPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBP <----- First Line
    BPBPBPBPB B< ----- Second Line
    BP B B< ------ Third Line

    You see that second roll with the clump Banker? That is what shifter is talking about. The red area is what I call the clump. That is where the money is at. Once you are able to pull three to four wins, in this case probably more, you cash out and you head to the cashier. In Vegas if you are playing by yourself with unlimited free hands, that is only just 5 minutes or so. At a $100 table at the Wynn that is $400 before commissions. For just 5 minutes of work. That is what more than some high powered lawyer would make in an hour.
     
  9. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    Thanks DMSCR but I still don't get it. First of all what do you mean by "roll" in baccarat?

    And in your first line the shoe was perfectly choppy right?

    In the second line the shoe was perfectly choppy until B hit twice right? So what is so great about that? If you were betting the pattern wouldn't you be betting B/P alternating?

    What do you mean by "line" exactly? Are those different scenarios for shoes or is second line some sort of subset of the first line?
     
  10. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    Sorry I had to edit my post since I realize there is going to be confusion.

    Roll = Line. Some folks call it line and some call it roll. They are the same thing just with a different word to it.

    The first line is always going to be BPBPBPBPB or PBPBPBPBPB. Without the first line there is no baccarat. Since it is the back bone and spine of the whole shoe.

    The second line. That is the money maker. Developing the ability to execute and anticipate (not predicting) on this pattern will yield you great profits.

    Some folks would just like to play Banker only and I have ran into many folks who LOVES to play second line Bank. There are some who given called this the Golden Goose Bank or the Golden Bank since they lay huge bets on this. Some even at 70% of their bank roll on this very bet.

    Seeing this you will probably know the concept. For you to truly understand it and internalize as to why so many folks love this pattern so much is if you play this live. Whether in simulation (much recommended) or wagering actual money (not recommended but if you do small wagers). Or from what I remember you are near Resorts World NYC. You can just go there and sit and observe. Best real life baccarat education you will get without wagering actual money.
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2013
  11. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    Here is a better understanding of second line. This is one of my shoes I played at the Wynn last year.

    [​IMG]

    That clump near that end of the shoe. The second line where things are closed together with no holes in the second line compared to in the beginning.
     
  12. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    The MGM Grand

    [​IMG]

    In this shoe the second line is evened out at three units. Not as frustrating as the Wynn shoe where you have to wait until the end.
     
  13. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    Ok, I'm completely sober but I'm still not really understanding it. I do appreciate all your efforts in explaining it though. :nworthy:

    By second line banker do you mean the actual second line on the card shows banker wins? i.e. after a banker win you have a second banker win? So its a shoe where that pattern repeats?

    If so, what's the virtue in it in terms of how you bet? Can you describe how you would play those two shoes you posted from Wynn and MGM? Because in that Wynn shoe if you just bet banker after a single banker win (and sat out of all other hands) you would win 9 times and lose 7 times, after commissions you would only be up about 1.5 bets out of an entire shoe. So I'm assuming that isn't what you're talking about when you talk about cleaning up on second line banker shoes.
     
  14. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    yes, second line bank means you bet bank again after bank just won after player won the previous hand. so any time you have banker winning after player you bet banker again next. it's the second line on the scorecard.

    that's because that example is not a very good second line shoe. I've seen shoes where banker hit on the second line 15 times in a row or whatever. that's how you cleanup.

    but second line bank is just one option. you can also have a shoe where the second line never hits i.e. banker never wins 2 in a row. I had one like that yesterday where player was never winning 2 in a row. so as soon as player won, you bet bank and won 10x in a row or so.
     
  15. casinoboy

    casinoboy Low-Roller

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    i dont understand it either,i dont know how to read those cards. which one is bank and which on is player? i think red is banker and blue is player is that right? what are those dashes on the bottom and why do they go diffrent ways?

    i want to learn this strategy and try it at the mini baccarat table next weekend!

    thanks :peace:
     
  16. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    Ok thanks, that makes sense. So if you were betting on a second line banker pattern happening then you would only bet those hands (the hand after a single banker win) and no others? i.e. you are not betting on any other part of the pattern/series holding up, just the second line banker holding up right?
     
  17. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    The virtue? Hmmm.... it is based on my logarithms on how I record the shoe and from there I found patterns within those patterns that consistently pop up. The purpose is to eliminate the 50/50 and eschewed the percentages when things are in my favor to create positive variance. Plus to make sure these hidden patterns are not noise there is a form of "card counting" utilized. Blackjack for instance uses individual cards to card count. This is not going to work in Baccarat since there is too many cards in play and there are complex fixed rules to follow.

    Hmmmm going to be tough to explain in one post so.......

    Here is an example say the results come out to 5 for player (or it could be Banker). There are many ways to come out to a 5. An Ace with a Four. A Jack and a Five. A six, a five and then a four. This means there is a high results 5, a low results 5 a mid results 5 and an over board 5. By assigning a certain numerical affix to each of these fives or whatever results happening and then put them together with the other side of Banker you get a certain number. Putting all these numbers together will help you separate the signal from the noise. Once that signal comes up you lay your wager.

    This is used for flat betting and don't know if this will work on some parlay/progression. Will probably not but I am not willing to dish out real money to find out since in simulation I fell flat on my face and wiped out my whole bankroll.

    All the methods/recordings I am trying to discover is for the purpose to developing flat betting high probability styles. No parlays. No progressions and certainly nothing dealing with any forms of martingale.

    My wins from those two shoes are 3 units before commissions. So from what I remember the profit was around $270 per shoe after commissions and tips. Those were $100 tables back from 2011/2012 from what remember. Playing the second line is just one pattern I focused on. There were about three more patterns from what I remember since I don't use that method anymore.
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2013
  18. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    Yeah not very good shoes since I had to dig from my pile of record cards.

    Found one that will probably explain things better. The second line for this shoe has 12 results. Seven Banker (Blue) and Five Player (Red).

    [​IMG]

    I have never experienced what shifter stated of 15 straight on the second line. Wish I did. But I did better than my usual three unit goal for this shoe. Something that doesn't happen all too often.
     
  19. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    \ ----- means I won.
    / ------means I lost the bet.

    Used to track my wins and losses. I did so because I can eye ball things quick and to know how much won and lost. If I used +1 and -1 things would slow down. Also I like to play around 2 am to 9 am at the high limit area in Encore since most of the time I am the only person playing during the off season. The night shift over there knows me and we get along so I can have some say in things. There are times I would ask if I can multi-table and if I am allowed I go ahead and play three tables at the same time. That is why I use those dashes for recording how much won and lost.
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2013
  20. 4Eyes

    4Eyes Low-Roller

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    Mathematically if there is a pattern (based upon card counting, not previous B vs. P outcomes) it nowhere near enough to alter the house edge on either bet. But, there is also no disadvantage to betting your hunches, other than the fact that the Player bet has a higher house edge than the Banker bet.
     
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