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Are you a Gambler?

Discussion in 'Casino Gaming' started by Piggylane, Oct 2, 2014.

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  1. Piggylane

    Piggylane Well-Known Member

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    Duhh! If you are reading this you think you are! But take the following simple test I frequently give my engineering classes.

    A regular US quarter has heads and tails. Lets assume there is a 50/50 probability that when we flip it either heads or tails will come up (in reality there is an improbability that it will land on it's edge and stay there. Let's assume that's 0% chance.)

    If the coin is flipped and heads appears 5 times in a row, what is the probability that heads will appear on the 6th flip?

    Now, the coin has been flipped 10 times in a row, all heads. The probability again for heads on the 11th flip?

    You've been busy flipping the coin, recording results. Dang! It's been 24 times in a row and it's still coming up heads! The probability that the 25th flip will be heads?

    The answer is below. Don't page down. Think of the possibilities. Is there a difference between illusion and reality?


    Think.


    Think.


    Think.


    Think.


    OK!


    The Law of Independent Trials says that past events have no consequence on the future. If your answer is "It doesn't matter, the coin has no memory!" Well, maybe you aren't a true gambler.

    If you said after the tenth or fifteenth flip: It's always going to be heads because there is something wrong with the quarter! Then you are a true gambler!

    A fair coin flip series would have a 1/33,554,432 chance of coming up red 25 times in a row, highly improbably for a solid state binary decision maker. At 15 flips in a row that's 1/32,768. Now we've all probably seen a roulette results board all black or all red so it is possible but it's rare!

    I'm not the originator of this test, can't remember where I found it but it tells much about the gambler's mindset. Doesn't a gambler look for patterns? Baccarat players sure do, they chase the dragon. Do you look for patterns in cards, craps?

    Anyway, have fun with this thought experiment. Love hear your comments. I'll share some of those of my students.
     
  2. RiddickBull

    RiddickBull VIP Whale

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    Ride the streak out until the wheels fall off.

    Epic runs are life changers.
     
  3. LV_Bound

    LV_Bound VIP Whale

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    Which casino has this game. I want to play!!!!:wink2:
     
  4. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    +1 for riding a horse until it dies (or drops from exhaustion for the PC types out there).
     
  5. blackjacknut

    blackjacknut VIP Whale

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    The Law of Statistical Propensity also applies to Roulette: There is a causative force that compels numerical events to seek their legitimate place within their assigned probabilities. Whether the dice or wheel have a memory is irrelevant. The influence originates from the effects of statistical propensity, the authority that governs the probabilities of random numerical events.
     
  6. BCMike

    BCMike VIP Whale

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    An old dealer gave me some great advice. This was about 10 years ago at the Aladdin when I was a low level blackjack player. I'd consistently play $5-$10 a hand... I'd always take back any winnings after I won and leave out my original bet. I think I must have won about 15 hands in a row. He told me to add $5 to my bet each time I win and I would have made a lot of money. Ever since then, I've actually played it like that and I usually do pretty good when I play. If I lose, I go back to the minimum or whatever base bet I'm playing usually and start all over again.
     
  7. blackjacknut

    blackjacknut VIP Whale

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    You are playing a progressive strategy...over time progressive strategies are not profitable and will leave you with very large losses wiping out any short term gains. But people have the right to play the way they want.
     
  8. BCMike

    BCMike VIP Whale

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    I agree, it is a progressive and the key to it is that you win enough hands in a row to cover the bet. The good thing about this particular one is that you're always pulling back some of your winnings (assuming you win the first hand).
     
  9. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    Wait a minute...since these are negative expectation games that we play then ANY betting strategy will NOT be profitable by definition.

    So what is your point about positive progression versus flat betting?
     
  10. Piggylane

    Piggylane Well-Known Member

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    Progressive strategies generally lose. Simulations and reality tell us that. However, watch the results board at baccarat. I use the "follow last bet" strategy and ignore the Asian players who pore over their cards. I am net up on the game. When I have three consecutive losses I walk. Sometimes it's a short session but other times I've won decent sums.

    My engineers generally analyze based on probabilities. Rarely does anyone question the validity of the quarter.

    On my way from Dallas to Las Vegas today. Another twenty students next week. Will give them the test, expect similar results.
     
  11. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    ALL strategies lose .
    A progressive strategy allows you to capitalize on a rare long streak, like hitting a jackpot in slots.

    You have been lucky so far in baccarat using your strategy. Keep it up as it is working for you!
     
  12. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    With respect to roulette, since it is a physical game with real world physical parts, then imperfections can occur resulting in biased wheels that can and have been legally exploited for huge sums.

    The OP is trying to make the point that we all ASSUME the coin in his example is unbiased just because he told us it was a fair coin.

    However, the experimental evidence clearly supports the hypothesis that his coin is loaded and not fair.

    For example, if I gave you a bag full of coins and said one of them is a loaded coin, how would you find it?

    You would start flipping them until you found the one that was all heads or all tails when flipped.
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2014
  13. blackjacknut

    blackjacknut VIP Whale

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    Progressive strategies in the very short term can be profitable as it relates to Blackjack. You can be profitable in the short term with flat betting also. But the key is to utilize a strategy that takes the house edge down to zero or as close to it as possible. Also you have to know when to walk away, and this is where many people don't have the discipline to do so. I will never play into a cold shoe...I always walk away. The keyword here is "short term"
     
  14. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    OK, I understand your point, and I agree.
    In blackjack, it is a good strategy to "never play into a cold shoe",
    because whether you were counting or not, a cold shoe probably has a negative count!
     
  15. DoubleUp

    DoubleUp Low-Roller

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    This is basically pretty close to an argument I have used in the past, it occurred to me about XX years ago when I was arguing with a medical doctor (at a medical convention) who seemed to believe some magical "law of averages" had to be obeyed by random systems, so that if a coin came up heads 10 times in a row, tails was due ! So I led him through basically the same series of questions, and he finally saw the light!
     
  16. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    It took a long time and a lot of lost money to really understand what would be expected to happen after 10 heads in a row came up.
    Most people would think like the doctor you met at the convention, that now 10 tails would be due in order to "balance" the books, so to speak.
    But the realistic expectation is that the next 10 decisions should just be RANDOM, as if the prior 10 heads had not occurred.
    So in the past I would bet on the expectation that an "extra" 10 tails would be showing up at some point and I lost a ton of money looking for those extra tails. Now, I still lose but much less because I no longer chase my bets looking for those extra tails.
    (But I do chase another type of tail, LOL!)
    Another thing I notice is that long streaks will "cluster" so if I see a long streak I keep my eyes open for another long streak to occur sooner that expected by the law of averages.
     
  17. earth-3

    earth-3 High-Roller

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    I think some people don't walk because they just started their session. Your there to enjoy yourself and perhaps even win something. To leave if your first three or four hands are against you, feels contrary to the reason your there in the first place. However; to dig yourself out of a hole in the beginning, will cost your more since probability is working against you.
     
  18. Terry Benedict

    Terry Benedict VIP Whale

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    Look, your strategy is to minimize losses. You do this by shortening the time you spend at the game. I'm guessing that walking after three losses would probably mean more time choosing a game than playing a game. Several of us would rather spend hours at a table maximizing winning streaks and minimizing losing streaks.

    A progressive strategy is a valid strategy. By the nature of casino games, no strategy is a winner. But the key is leaving with a profit. Some of us would rather choose that moment to walk rather than have the cards, dice, or reels choose for us.

    As far as the coin flip, I am completely in agreement that the next toss will be 50/50. What confuses people in regards to the question is they are considering what the odds are for a coin to flip heads 11 times in a row. But that is a different question, one that should be asked before the first flip.
     
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