Duhh! If you are reading this you think you are! But take the following simple test I frequently give my engineering classes. A regular US quarter has heads and tails. Lets assume there is a 50/50 probability that when we flip it either heads or tails will come up (in reality there is an improbability that it will land on it's edge and stay there. Let's assume that's 0% chance.) If the coin is flipped and heads appears 5 times in a row, what is the probability that heads will appear on the 6th flip? Now, the coin has been flipped 10 times in a row, all heads. The probability again for heads on the 11th flip? You've been busy flipping the coin, recording results. Dang! It's been 24 times in a row and it's still coming up heads! The probability that the 25th flip will be heads? The answer is below. Don't page down. Think of the possibilities. Is there a difference between illusion and reality? Think. Think. Think. Think. OK! The Law of Independent Trials says that past events have no consequence on the future. If your answer is "It doesn't matter, the coin has no memory!" Well, maybe you aren't a true gambler. If you said after the tenth or fifteenth flip: It's always going to be heads because there is something wrong with the quarter! Then you are a true gambler! A fair coin flip series would have a 1/33,554,432 chance of coming up red 25 times in a row, highly improbably for a solid state binary decision maker. At 15 flips in a row that's 1/32,768. Now we've all probably seen a roulette results board all black or all red so it is possible but it's rare! I'm not the originator of this test, can't remember where I found it but it tells much about the gambler's mindset. Doesn't a gambler look for patterns? Baccarat players sure do, they chase the dragon. Do you look for patterns in cards, craps? Anyway, have fun with this thought experiment. Love hear your comments. I'll share some of those of my students.