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Anybody else own WYNN?

Discussion in 'Casino Industry & Development' started by Dean Martin, Jul 14, 2012.

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  1. Dean Martin

    Dean Martin VIP Whale

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    Any thoughts on their earnings this Tues? I read the article this week about Nevada gaming in general was down in May but that number seems to fluctuate monthly/quarterly depending if they hit a whale for a big loss or the other way around. The article makes it seem to be across the board but they also don't give any casino company specific numbers. We're there twice a year and it appears Wynn is killing it w/ the night and beach club business. Encore is always a bit quieter in the casino but Wynn was always packed. Not to mention all the business in Asia.

    Seems like the 52 week low in the stock has it set up to spike on anything decent for numbers. What do you think?
     
  2. smartone

    smartone VIP Whale

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    I don't own Wynn, but I do have some Boyd (BYD) and some Sands (LVS).... I also just bought some Pinnacle (PNK), which is another Nevada-based gaming concern, that currently owns hotel/casinos outside of Nevada.

    You're correct the gaming numbers have been up and down, with actually some more up, than down, but the thing that still puts pressure on these companies is figuring out how to increase profits when people are determined to spend less. Though the visitor volume is on track to break the pre-recession level, the average spend per visitor remains way, way down in comparison. The home equity ATM's are gone and people are parting with "real" money and they don't "part' with it quite as freely. I know I sure don't...

    Macau is the growth spot for Wynn and LV Sands though and that's looking really good for both!
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2012
  3. hammie

    hammie VIP Whale

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    This is an example of how difficult it is to make a buying decision when it comes to individual stocks. Cantor Fitzgerald just put out a buy rating on WYNN and says it's a $134 stock and has been beaten down because of the slowdown in Macau. Another analyst claims that WYNN will underperform because it's market share in Macau continues to drop as other casinos open up and siphon off customers and because VIP customers are slowing down. Wynn depends on whales for revenue while Sands depends on the middle market. The new Wynn casino in Macau won't open till 2015. http://seekingalpha.com/article/646891-now-is-not-the-time-to-gamble-on-wynn-resorts
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2012
  4. Dean Martin

    Dean Martin VIP Whale

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    That's probably true but that's one of the reasons I like WYNN...the spending/visitor is down so they say, but that's going to be the average Joes that cut back, not the whales IMO. Plus, Wynn has all the club action where he sells liquor and cabanna's to the kiddies for ridiculous prices but they're buying (or charging) like it's candy.

    Appreciate your take on it...Dino
     
  5. JillyFromPhilly

    JillyFromPhilly Tourist

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    Wynn & LVS both mint so much money in Macau [and in LVS's case, Singapore as well] that they've essentially become Asian companies with branches in Las Vegas. For both of them, what happens in Asia is the real overall profit driver anymore, Vegas properties are just a fraction of their numbers. So I think the real question to whether or not to buy either would be what you think is going to go on with the Chinese/Southeast Asian economies going forward, and who will benefit or lose more depending which direction China & Asia are going.

    I actually think right now, LVS is the better buy - they're both pretty much near 52-week lows & equal P/E ratios - plus given the uncertainty going on at Wynn with all the power struggle & all the lawsuits between Okada, Steve & Elaine [Elaine is suing to be able to dump a billion dollars worth of shares as we speak] Wynn's chances for substantial growth in the near-term is in limbo - though it might be a good buying opportunity if you think all the chaos might lead to a buyout. But if you think growth in Asia is going to stay strong, LVS has a much bigger, more diversified presence in Asia & IMO is far better positioned to capitalize on that going forward. If you think Asia is going to continue tanking in the near-to-mid term, neither Wynn or LVS is probably a good buy right now - which is likely the real reason both are near their 52-week lows.

    MGM & CET are both pigs - too much debt, too reliant on Domestic spending & economic swings, too much exposure to a saturated US gaming market that at this point isn't growing many new customers, but still building ever more casinos in local markets.
     
  6. Dean Martin

    Dean Martin VIP Whale

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    I didn't know Elaine was trying to dump a lot of shares... I knew she owned a ton but thought she'd remain a shareholder. Interesting stuff.... Thanks Jilly. I know Asia is slowing a bit so it's a tough call. Have to see what the stock and options do Monday. Thanks again for your view. Dino
     
  7. mjamesp

    mjamesp High-Roller

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    Jilly nailed this out of the park with the reply. 100% agree with the reply.
     
  8. natedog666

    natedog666 17 and 20 Expert

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    I've owned both MGM Macau and Wynn Macau listed in HK and also WYNN and MGM listed in the US. Recently MGM Macau and Wynn Macau has been beaten down a lot due to China slowdown news, and also possible new visa restrictions...so that's going to affect LVS, MGM, and also WYNN as well.

    I would be on the sidelines right now until there's more clarity on which direction the Chinese economy is heading. I've heard from executive friends in the industry that some of these hotels are having some issues with their junkets (main source of income for the Macau casinos, they offer credit to the Chinese gamblers), the junkets are having problems collecting in China lately because of the economic slowdown....
     
  9. gongoman

    gongoman MIA

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    well

    I don't like talkin status but being a Onyx with Boyd I just wish they start finishing Echelon which I doubt will ever but I still pray for it but I have a gut feeling Wynn will make a offer soon..:beer:
     
  10. Dean Martin

    Dean Martin VIP Whale

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    Appreciate that insight Nate.... I do wonder sometimes as Jilly mentioned, if somebody in Asia or even Okada might make a bid for the company. You're right about more clarity though...it seems hard to tell if China is going thru a blip in their economy or a real turn downward.
     
  11. hammie

    hammie VIP Whale

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    That is the big unknown. You can't really trust the statistics issued by the Chinese government, they are incapable of telling the truth.

    Here is an article from the WSJ about LVS getting an extension from the govt. of Macau to complete a casino project. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303754904577530270288344882.html
     
  12. Dean Martin

    Dean Martin VIP Whale

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    So true...I think in some of these countries hiding/moving money, bribes and in general non-disclosure has been such an acceptable way of doing business for years that it's the norm. Business would be done that way here too (more than it already does) if we didn't have so many regulations and regulators watching.
     
  13. y2mulder

    y2mulder Low-Roller

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    EIGHT DOLLAR special dividend issued last night, and they are doubling the regular payout from $2 to $4 starting in 2013. 5th year in a row they have done an outsized special dividend.

    In the casino investing world, there is WYNN, and no close 2nd right now.
     
  14. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    I actually bought a half-lot while I was in Vegas in July. Coulda saved a few bucks by waiting a few days until after the 2Q earnings, but it's up $20, so all good!

    [​IMG]
     
  15. JimboS

    JimboS Low-Roller

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    I owned Caesars last month and sold just over $8 before it went up to $14 in a week. Boy was I mad.
     
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