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Any football handicappers out there?

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by hard6, Aug 23, 2013.

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  1. hard6

    hard6 Low-Roller

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    How about starting a weekly best pick for college and pro football this season? I'm sure a lot of us would be happy to get some help in capping some games or getting some inside info for a game or two to take with us when heading to a sports book in Vegas, I know I would. :thumbsup: What do you guys think?
     
  2. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    Pretty avid sports bettor here, I do well for myself with the limited bankroll I have a law student. I would be willing to share my insight on a couple NCAA and NFL games a week, if people are really interested.
     
  3. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    Here is an example of what I would provide on a weekly basis. These are my 3 picks for Week 1 of the NCAA season next week.

    North Carolina @ South Carolina -11.5 56.5u Thursday, August 29th 6:00 pm EST

    South Carolina has won 11 in a row at home and 28 of the last 31. The Gamecocks are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 home games and 5-1 ATS vs. the ACC. While North Carolina 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. These teams last met in 2007, with the Gamecocks winning 21-15. It is week 1 so look for rusty offenses, add the bad blood of the rivalry and I like the teams to be under total of 56.5. If I had to guess, I’d say South Carolina 27-14 but I’d stay away from the spread and take the under.

    Pick: Under 56.5

    Georgia -1.5 @ Clemson 69u Saturday, August 31st, 8:00 pm EST

    The #5 Georgia Bulldogs visit Death Valley and the #8 Clemson Tigers in what looks to be the game of the week in week 1. The Bulldogs are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS vs. Clemson since 1992. There is no doubt that both teams will bring plenty of offensive fire power as evidenced by the total being set at 69 but this game will be decided on defense. The Bulldogs lost a lot of talent on defense but they don’t rebuild they reload, while the Tigers have an up and coming defense but just aren’t quite to the Bulldogs’ level yet. So with that I say Georgia wins 35-31. With two youthful defenses I would stay away from the total, I know 69 sounds like a lot but these are two of the best offenses in the country.

    Pick: Georgia -1.5

    LSU -4.5 @ TCU 43u Saturday, August 31st, 9:00 pm EST Cowboy Stadium

    Another intriguing opening week game as the LSU Tigers head to Dallas to take on the TCU Hornedfrogs in a “neutral” site game that is really a home game for the Frogs. However, the Frogs are going to need more than fan support to beat the Tigers, a perennial power in Division 1 football. TCU is becoming a household name with a few impressive season and bowl wins under Coach Patterson and I think the Frogs will hang tight for a while with LSU but in the end the SEC power and mastermind Les Miles will be too much for the 2nd year Big 12 school. I say LSU 27-14.

    Pick: LSU -4.5
     
  4. GetEmLuke

    GetEmLuke Tourist

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    Nice! Im going next weekend and looking to place a few bets. I've been torn on which games to pick though. Was going to bet on Texas till I saw the 42 point spread. Hoping I make it in time to bet the Texas Tech vs SMU game. Saturday should be a good day!
     
  5. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    Recent history is on your side for New Mexico State @ Texas however overall history isn't. On the same date this game will be played, August 31st, of 2003 #5 Texas beat NMSU 66-7 at Texas Memorial Stadium. However since 1992, NMSU has covered the spread vs Texas 2 out of 3 times.

    IMO, probably good to look for another game hahaha
     
  6. GetEmLuke

    GetEmLuke Tourist

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    Yeah I believe you are correct. I was leaning on NM to cover but I think its in my best interest to steer clear and just enjoy watching the game.
     
  7. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    Wise idea especially if you are a fan! Rule #1 in the sports book... Bet with your head, not with you heart! If it involved "your" team then avoid it!

    There are a lot of other games I like on top of the three listed above, if you're interested, I can post them here without commentary or you can PM me for them.
     
  8. GetEmLuke

    GetEmLuke Tourist

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    Absolutely! I'll take any help i can get. This will be the 1st time I've actually got to bet on College Football in Vegas so Im pumped.
     
  9. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    Purdue @ Cincinnati -10.5 50u 8/31 12pm EST
    Pick: Cincinnati -10.5

    Temple @ Notre Dame -30 53u 8/31 3:30pm EST
    Pick: Temple +30

    Mississippi State @ Oklahoma State -12.5 60u 8/31 3:30pm EST Reliant Stadium, Houston
    Pick: Oklahoma State -12.5

    Nothern Illinois @ Iowa -3 53u 8/31 3:30pm EST
    Pick: Under 53

    Florida State -10.5 @ Pittsburgh 49u 9/2 8:00pm EST
    Pick: Florida State -10.5
     
  10. thecarve

    thecarve Misanthrope

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    Don't know that I'm with you 100%, klawrey. But I admire you putting your picks out there.:nworthy: Hope you clean up!
     
    Number 50!
  11. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    Like I said I win a fair amount more than I lose... Can't remember a losing season I have had in the past five years. Had some close to even but usually at least up some. It comes down to weighing your bets based on what you think are the strongest, which there are some I feel are better than others.

    I'm always open to hearing different sides to the bet, to me that is what I love about sports betting, the different angles to every game. May I ask what you may disagree with and the logic for sake of discussion? Maybe we can all come together to become more informed and better bettors!
     
  12. hard6

    hard6 Low-Roller

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    Klawrey, thanks for the input, any chance on getting ratings on your picks? Like 1 unit or 2 units, or a star rating? :peace:
     
  13. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    Well personally, I have just one unit on each of those three games plus the added games I posted in hopes of boosting my bankroll early in the season.

    I will try my best to give them star ratings. Out of 5 stars.

    LSU -4.5 -- 4.5 stars

    Cincinnati -10.5 -- 4 stars

    North Carolina @ South Carolina Under 56.5 4 stars

    Northern Illinois @ Iowa Under 53 3.5 stars

    Florida State -10.5 -- 3.5 stars

    Oklahoma State -12.5 -- 3 stars

    Temple +30 -- 3 stars

    Georgia -1.5 -- 2 stars

    That is how I would rate them based on my confidence, Georgia for example is playing another top 10 program on the road of obviously not as confident as Cincinnati playing at home against a lethargic Purdue.
     
  14. archie1959

    archie1959 Low-Roller

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  15. Pizzaman

    Pizzaman Low-Roller

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    I will help when I can.
     
  16. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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  17. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    Good thread. I am a full blown football junkie and have turned profits on the last two NCAA seasons. NFL is a little tougher because I find the lines to be super tight and hard to exploit.

    A buddy and I are doing The Waters Challenge this year - its a guy who runs it on twitter. Look it up if you're interested.

    I am already on Temple...not just because I am from Philly either. ND is always overvalued because the public recreational bettors love to hammer the Irish.
     
  18. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    Yeah I don't know if Notre Dame has won a game by 30 points since the mid to early 90s. And with Tommy Rees at QB instead of Everett Golson I don't know that they'll be able to score enough to win by 30.
     
  19. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    Yep...good points.

    I liked your Cincy pick and the NC/SC under too.
     
  20. Tellafriend

    Tellafriend High-Roller

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    agreed! thanks for having the courage to post!:nworthy:
     
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