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Video Poker Another Risk of Ruin thread..

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by TIMSPEED, Jul 7, 2014.

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  1. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    What would be my risk of ruin for the following:

    50c 5-play 9/6 JoB ($12.50 a pop)
    $20k coin-in
    $1000 bankroll

    $2 Single-Line 9/6 JoB
    Same stats

    $0.50c Single-Line 9/6 JoB
    Same stats

    Thanks!
     
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  2. aaisack

    aaisack High-Roller

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    Not sure, but I imagine it would be near 100% for the first two, and well over 50% for the last one. I wouldn't dare go over quarters for more than short bursts, and I usually budget a couple k. Sucks to kill your bank roll the first day of a trip.
     
  3. raisingoo

    raisingoo Low-Roller

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    VPW software simulations

    I got, last Xmas as a gift, the full version of Video Poker for Winners software, and it has a built-in Risk of Ruin calculator. (You can download a free trial for yourself at videopokerforwinners.com but it only functions for 10 days as a free trial before you are asked to purchase the full version, and then it stops working.)

    I decided to run your scenarios through it. Note that the software calls is "risk of ruined." You are allowed to specify the "profit cutoff" as well, where you can decide when and if you simply walk away from the game (I guess if you hit many good hands, or a royal or multiple royals), but you didn't ask about that, so I set that at an extremely high number ($50,000) to effectively take that out of the equation.

    ---

    - Scenario 1

    A $20,000 coin-in on a 5-play machine with full coins at 50 cents a coin is 1,600 rounds ($12.50/round * 1,600 = $20,000 coin-in) and on a 9/6 JoB machine with perfect play... $1,000 stake

    Chance of profit = 32.51% / Chance of loss = 67.39%
    Risk of ruined = 25.38%

    - Scenario 2

    A $20,000 coin-in on a single play machine with full coins at $2 a coin is 2,000 rounds ($10.00/round * 2,000 rounds = $20,000 coin-in) and on a 9/6 JoB machine with perfect play... $1,000 stake

    Chance of profit = 29.57% / Chance of loss = 70.10%
    Risk of ruined = 41.83%

    - Scenario 3

    A $20,000 coin-in on a single play machine with full coins at $0.50 a coin is 8,000 rounds ($2.50/round * 8,000 rounds = $20,000 coin-in) and on a 9/6 JoB machine with perfect play... $1,000 stake

    Chance of profit = 27.97% / Chance of loss = 71.94%
    Risk of ruined = 14.18%

    ---

    If anyone wants to double-check my math, be my guest.

    Hope this helps.
     
  4. Gofaster87

    Gofaster87 Low-Roller

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    I haven't run the numbers but I can tell you not too even attempt the $2 vp. If your doing it for a "just go for it" attempt and dont mind the loss, by all means do it. Ive lost 1k in less than an hour on low volatility games at those levels. I wouldn't recommend less than a few grand on one $2 vp session.
     
  5. boxofbirds

    boxofbirds High-Roller

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    Nice, I wish there was something like this for Mac! I was actually wondering for my upcoming trip if I spent $500 on a "swing for the fences" play if playing single line $5 BP or Five play $1 BP, both are $25 a spin, which would have a better chance of doubling or better before losing it all.
     
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  6. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Interesting question.

    Unfortunately, I've been too cheap to buy VP for winners yet. I mostly play single line and I have a home grown simulator that works for single line, but not multiline.

    My guess is 1 play $5 will increase your chances of reaching the goal because you're looking for higher payouts for a chance at a doubling win. A multiline game for the same total bet lowers your variance and will subject you to the house edge for longer. I would like to see a sim to back that up though. I'll check the chances for single line later this afternoon.
     
  7. Ty

    Ty ?

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    Tim, you heading back to Sam's Town before the wedding?
     
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  8. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    doubtful, I can't take any days off between now and then, and that leaves only Labor Day, which we'll be in San Diego...
     
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  9. DeMoN2318

    DeMoN2318 The DERS

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    Can someone post the equations for Chance of Profit and Chance of Loss?

    RoR appears to be Chance of Loss - Chance of Profit
     
  10. smartone

    smartone VIP Whale

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    Damn good thing gambling is fun and entertaining, cause if someone came to me and asked for ten thousand dollars (what I probably gamble in a year) and said their "investment" had a 70% chance of loss... I'd physically remove them from my office!
     
  11. raisingoo

    raisingoo Low-Roller

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    There really aren't any equations involved, it's more of a simulation.

    Some of the simulations take a while to run (2-3 minutes or more), especially the one with 8,000 hands, because it needs to go through each and every hand/round and cumulatively calculate your chance of a profit, your chance of a loss, and your chance of having your buy-in/bankroll wiped out (ruin).

    Again, Windows users get 10 free days with this software and I'd recommend anyone getting it not only for this, but also to learn your desired VP game of choice. It's excellent software.
     
  12. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    no equation that simple. It was just an approximate coincidence. It's not even close for Tim's quarter scenario.

    Right anything finite (coin-in limit; win stop goals) has to be simulated as far as I know. Now for infinite "risk of ruin" calculations, there is a formula that is quite accurate:

    http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/VPRoR.htm

    For 8/5 Bonus single line I got about a 32.24% chance of success with your median session being 99 hands.

    If you would happen to get impatient and settle for a 7/5 Bonus machine I got about a 29.86% chance of success with your median session being 98 hands.

    Sorry I can't do multiline on my simulator, someone else could help though...:poke:
     
  13. boxofbirds

    boxofbirds High-Roller

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    Thanks!
     
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