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Am I properly bankrolled for this trip?

Discussion in 'Casino Gaming' started by BeeeJay, Mar 16, 2013.

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  1. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    Hello Friends! :wave:

    I feel quite lucky to have access to some of the best, most uncensored gaming expertise on the internet, and the time has come where I would really like to take advantage of that knowledge.

    Despite my heavy training in statistics, I'm really only able to focus that expertise towards my analysis on the little-known narrow band of actuarial science known as Lobster-life expectancy, as required by Darden Restaurants in hedging their 1.5lb-3lb live Maine's lobby tank risk.

    So here I am with the Vegas trip of a lifetime coming up, 8 days/7 nights, all my best friends (except that stubborn Gaggles) and I want to really manage my risk of ruin and set myself up for a good, if expensive time.

    So here is my plan, please comment on your thoughts, I am really interested in opinions from the VMB community.

    I am planning to break my trip up into 2 4-day trips for bankroll purposes, each trip with its own separate $5,000 bankroll for a total $10,000 allocated towards the trip. The "daily envelope" disbursement is scheduled as $2,000, $1,000, $1,000, $1,000, and then rinse and repeat for trip #2.

    My gambling plan is as follows:

    10 hours gambling per day.

    3 hours per day of $25 blackjack at an assumed 2% house advantage and 50 hands per hour for a daily theo of $75 and weekly theo of $600.

    3 hours per day of $15 craps with single odds at an assumed 2% house advantage and 40 decisions per hour for a daily theo of $72 an weekly theo of $576.

    3 hours per day of $1 bonus deluxe video poker, assuming 500 hands/hour at a 3% house advantage for a daily theo of $225 and weekly theo of $1,800.

    1 hour per day of $35/spin roulette, assuming 50 spins/hour and a 5% house advantage for a daily theo of $88 and a weekly theo of $700.

    So my overall daily theo for 10 hours of play would be $460 and for the week would be $3,676.

    My initial reaction is $10,000 or 3 times theo is a sufficient bankroll given the already low bet to bankroll ratio and relatively high amount of play to reduce variance.

    In addition I am also setting aside a backup fund of $5,000 in case of severe poor experience.

    I am thinking i have a pretty good chance of avoiding complete ruin with this bankroll if I stick to these play levels as maximums.

    Any thoughts? Thanks in advance!!!:beer:
     
  2. 2VegasNuts

    2VegasNuts High-Roller

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    THEO is an interesting lover. I would like to think she is consistent and runs with me at the same pace all the time. Unfortunately, as recently proven just last Tuesday, she runs all over me some of the time. Betting exactly as you indicate above, I lost $500 in BJ in less than 40 minutes on Tuesday last week and then another $500 in 9/6 VP in an hour or so. Day by day Theo is going to be very unpredictable. Your betting is very similar to mine on Day 1. I generally double my bankroll each day. But, for Day 1, I have lost $3-6lk many times over 10 hours at this level.

    What I do find predictable it that betting will increase, not decrease, as the trip goes on. Have you ever bet less after winning? Or losing? If you are going to set a stop loss-my preference is 1,1,1,2....not 2,1,1,1. 2,1,1,1 is much harder to hold to.

    btw, lived in Chicago for many years before moving out west. I used to live within walking distance of Hollywood Casino. I went back over the holidays and loved River's Casino. Great vibe! I am also 8 days away from an 8 day trip to Vegas....Aria, Flamingo, Venetian trio. Should be awesome!
     
  3. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    good points, appreciate the feedback. I have definitely bet less after winning and succesfully locked in wins in the past on mutliple occasions, enough to be confident I can consistently do that. Less so after losses, but often pretty good job, with some crash and burn chasing mixed in.

    I definitely question my ability to reduce the states per bet. The overall bankroll being higher on arrival could make it easier for me to exceed my desired bet level.

    I very well may take this into account and adjust accordingly.
     
  4. Llew

    Llew Low-Roller

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    It depends on what type of bets you make at craps, what strategy and game type you play in video poker, and what type of bets you make at roulette. Risk of ruin is affected by variability, not just house edge and bet amounts, and different bet types have different levels of variability.
     
  5. Dpin300

    Dpin300 Low-Roller

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    Do you get your hookers and blow comped? Otherwise you forgot to include those in your mathematics..:evillaugh booze is free and you don't need to eat as you will lose your appetite doing blow. So no need to set money aside for food.
     
  6. eksantirik

    eksantirik Low-Roller

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    Your theo calculations are off, so you might want to re-evaluate. For $25, you can find S17 6D blackjack with surrender, memorize basic strategy and your theo is only $9,75 per day (0.26% house edge). Craps, with single odds should cost less than 1% house edge. And video poker, just by learning simple rules from wizard of odds, you can cut your house edge to under 1%.

    Though, despite all this, risk of ruin is not much related with theo. It's related to the innate variance of the game. For each game, you need a separate simulation or calculation for risk of ruin. I can speak for blackjack:

    In 7 days, 3 hours/day and 50 hands/hour, you'll likely play 1050 hands in total. If you accept 5% risk of ruin, your blackjack bankroll alone should be $1900. If you accept 1% risk of ruin, then your blackjack bankroll should be $2475. If you want virtually no risk of ruin (0.01%), then prepare a bankroll of $3700. See the table below for details:

    http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/12/
     
  7. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Roulette is what could wreck your plan. I'm not saying don't play it, I'm just saying the combined variance and HA can take a huge chunk of your daily loss limit, as you well know. At $35 per, you are putting the most money per trial on the game with the biggest variance and HA.

    So I would be thinking about when to go to the roulette table.

    First session of the day, with a fresh bankroll?
    When you have a certain minimum of your daily bankroll left?
    End of the day with whatever's left?
    When you're up for the day, or Only If you're up for the day?
    Separate sub-envelope for roulette?


    If you are attempting to curb your tendency to chase, in which situation are you least likely to chase but have enough dough to at least get your roulette ya-yas out?

    Also, if you consider each game separately at a bare 30x minimum bankroll, you are talking about a $2,400 daily bankroll.
     
  8. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    Sorry, guess I didn't make this clear initially:

    Craps--Pass line w/single odds
    VP--bonus deluxe, variance is mid-way between JOB and DDB.

    I understand variance is the square of standard deviation. How do you calculate this "variability"?
     
  9. Kickin

    Kickin Flea

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    Using theo to get a sense of your ROR and bankroll needs is an interesting approach. My first reaction is to say you are not "sufficiently" bankrolled and the reason for that is based on the numbers Natedog has always indicated coming from the casinos. Their "expectation" for those big players was to hit a theo of 25% of their CL. So a 1m player was expected to hit 250k theo. He's mentioned the minimum playing time for him was 12 hours but your going to be playing much more than that. If the 25% number is something the casinos determine I would expect the ROR to be on the high side. But maybe its an average they usually see players generate anyway so that's what they set as their benchmark. I don't know. Hopefully Nate sees this thread and can shed some light on where those numbers come from.

    However, on the other hand I think you may be fine but there are a few questions.

    1) Is money that is left over or won from a previous day going to carry over into the next day or are those daily and/or trip amounts hard limits for those days/trips?

    2) How about the opposite situation - will you take from the next days or next trips budget if you bust out on an earlier day?

    3) You probably can't know this right now but any idea what order you'll play the games in each day or during the trip? It makes a difference. If you play the lower vol games first and higher vol games later your ROR is actually lower than if you do it the other way around. You can probably see why intuitively but there is also a mathematical rationale behind it.

    Knowing these things it will make it easier to theorize about your question...
     
  10. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    Just my opinion, of course, but I would set the 'mini-trip' bankrolls (as you have done), and then simply gamble within those limits. If that gives you 10+ hours a day gambling, great! If it does not, then discipline yourself to take a sufficiently long break between "days" of gambling. Then you're right back in with the next day's allocation of cash.
    If it were me, I would be prepared to modify my minimum bets based on how I'm doing... not 'per hand/roll' obviously, but say every 3 hours or so. Your "base bets" would be as you have set them. Lower them to avoid 'daily ROR'. Press when things are going well. After a winning day, increase the next day's bankroll by those gains, and rat-hole the original $1000 from that day. (You can always tap into that money later, if need be.)
     
    Seems like forever from now, but the flights are booked, so it counts!
  11. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    I like it. There are smarter math guys, so I'll stay away from that part even though I enjoy it. But for me, mentally I like the 2,1,1,1 bankroll. I like going at it the first day because for me, that's a chance to make the trip right there. If not, I can adjust on the follow up days. But if I'm down, I have a tough time going hard the last day. Like I said, just a mental thing.

    One question...if you lose $1000 on day two are you done for that day, or can you go back and take money that you had leftover from day 1?

    Because I think your overall risk of ruin is pretty low, but your risk of ruin on any one day is pretty high. If you're not hitting quads, 3 hours of Bonus Deluxe can take a huge chunk.
     
  12. BeeeJay

    BeeeJay President of The Red Lobster Hostess Satisfaction

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    thanks guys for all the advice and analysis.

    I have tweaked my plans based on the suggestions.

    My HA advantage percentages take into account imperfect play and occasional "poor" plays. So I'm being conservative in those numbers obviously for BJ and Craps and VP. I probably will allow the carryover of past days winnings to coming days bankrolls.

    I have decided to go with much lower betting amounts and reduce time played to only 7 hrs/play per day. I'm reducing roulette bet per spin and Video Poker hands per hour by playing slower.

    The key to this being a successful plan for me is to understand my own weaknesses and incorporate them into my plan. I'm have to allow myself some taste of fun games like roulette and VP, but have been able to limit roulette nicely of late and expect to continue that trend and improve on it through lower per spin betting. For video poker, my plan is more quarters and less hands per hour.

    My overall goal in this planning is to set myself up for the best chance of getting maximum enjoyment for the amount of money I am willing to spend on gambling expense. This being a 7-night trip, my goals are a lot different than usual. Ruin avoidance is paramount initially, because I can't go down hard on day 1 with a week to go. That would be a nightmare.

    I may re-evaluate my strategy by Friday if I've stayed about even as I'll have the ability to get more aggressive with a larger per day bankroll remaining.

    My goal is to toe the line between monotonous boring low play and stress of putting my bankroll into jeopardy. A lot of my crew will be low playing this trip so peer support will be good for lower level play.
     
  13. BearcatBJ

    BearcatBJ Low-Roller

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    Like this post as I use almost the same strategy and bankroll, 2,1,1,1 for a 5k 4 day trip. Would like to hear the input of some of the big players as to how this compares.


    Also a question on pressing, I use fibonacci (1,1,2,3,5,8) on bj which would tend to make ror higher since avg bet gets to be near 75, but after the first win its house money and every win past 5 in a row wins 8 units. I find on a typical session there are runs of 7-8 in a row each way. How many sessions a day do you plan on playing in your 3 hrs and what buyins? I like to do a $500 buy for 2 hrs and repeat later if I dont go bust in the first session.

    As far as overall ror I would say it would be pretty low if you can stick to your plan, though by day 7 you will be completely degen and all plans may be a blur. Btw look forward to the tr from this epic trip based on your previous trips.
     
  14. KnotGillty

    KnotGillty Low-Roller

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    your numbers for 50 spins per hour at the roulette table are off. The actual number of spins per hour will be way less.

    Also, play at a blackjack table where there are other people present. This will draw the game out longer for bank roll purposes.

    Lastly, be disciplined and stick to your daily allotment of funds. If you run out, don't go back to the room to get more. Adhering to this rule directly correlates to alcohol consumption.
     
  15. Tellafriend

    Tellafriend High-Roller

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    Two things. 50 spins an hour is too much on most wheels w other players. More impt, go to aria or mgm and play single zero and cut your risk in half. $50 a spin minimumthough.
     
  16. IowaRyan

    IowaRyan Low-Roller

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    Not trying to hijack this thread but two quick questions:

    1) Why only single odds on craps? Seems like your limiting self too much on hot rolls without enough protection on a cold roll to justify such conservative play; and

    2) What kind of comps can one expect to receive for the aforementioned action? Just curious since this budget is what I'm contemplating for my next trip.
     
  17. Ezzy711

    Ezzy711 Low-Roller

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    Holy crap that's a lot of math. I really admire people who take the time to figure all that out. I look at my bank acct, subtract the bills I know I have to pay when I return, keep about a $1k buffer for anything I had not anticipated and withdraw what's left. Sometimes it's not enough so I have a LOC at one casino just in case.

    Hope it all works out for you.
     
  18. mike_m235

    mike_m235 Tourist

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    For his action, he's putting in a ton of hours and generating a bunch of theo, so his comps will be good. But his average bet is not high, so it's going to cap out his front end comps for future offers. He'll make most of his comps on the back end.
     
  19. Royal Flusher

    Royal Flusher Savvy Gambler

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    I like your approach here, as others have suggested, I would be looking at risk-of-ruin for each game based on your level of play/time of play/bankroll.

    Because you have a goal of having a great experience, i.e. lots of playing time, I would add in a couple of other caveats along the lines of what others have suggested.

    For example, when and how much you play roulette and at what stakes. Come up with a strategy that reflects how you are doing that day (or for the trip) and adjust the stakes accordingly.

    Same for Blackjack, if you can. (Depending on where you play, of course, the minimums might not be much lower, and you also want to have your player profile in mind.)

    I did a quick think about blackjack - I easily lost 40 units in an hour once (and 20 units in less than half an hour multiple times) so you could easily blow through $1000 playing 1 to 3 units in an hour. This is why I think you might want to adjust as you go.

    I wish you all the luck BeeeJay, get 'em by the nutsack on day 1 and you won't need all this strategy!
     
  20. Brensan

    Brensan Low-Roller

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    LOL, I agree!! I go to Vegas to get away from number crunching! I just want to drink :drunk:, have fun :banana:, and get lucky :)woohoo: lucky, not :wink2: lucky...) But I do admire all of Natedog's and Beejay's pre-trip planning. I just know it's a useless effort for me.
     
    BEAU RIVAGE - Super Bowl weekend
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