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ADT for craps

Discussion in 'Comps' started by rycelover, Mar 14, 2016.

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  1. rycelover

    rycelover High-Roller

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    I was in Atlantic City a few weekends ago and asked my host for my theoretical and he told me that Caesars had me with a 1448 theoretical and Bally’s a 2675 theoretical. Divided by three days and I get an average daily theoretical of 1374.

    I'm no sure where on the spectrum these numbers fall into. I asked him if those #'s were good and he said they're "fine". -_-

    Thoughts?
     
  2. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    damn, thoSE are some pretty serious numbers.. betting blacks and purples?
     
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  3. rycelover

    rycelover High-Roller

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    Blacks and purple? I wish! My standard bet is $165 on the even numbers $50 on 4 and 10 and $30 on 6 and 8; $5 for the vig on the 4 and 10 that I have to pay upfront in AC. If I'm feeling frisky, I'll throw a $10 on the hardway 6 and 8 each and parlay until it hits $900.
     
  4. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Knowing the time you spent at the table per day would be helpful too to know how accurate your ADT numbers are.
     
  5. CaliWes

    CaliWes Tourist

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    Those numbers sound right compared to how I bet craps. From what I've been told and I could be wrong but your ADT is your expected loss of 10%. So basically your 1448 is saying that you've gambled through $14,480 and they expect that they will take atleast $1,480 from you. That could mean you started with a bankroll of $500 or a $3000 bankroll depending on your "luck".

    My Theo is exactly the same and I play $100 on the outside, usually no passline unless I'm the roller, and then full press the first 2 hits on each number.
     
  6. rycelover

    rycelover High-Roller

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    on a typical gambling day, I'm usually moving from table to table for about 8-10 hours
     
  7. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    wtf??
    what casinos assigns a 10% theo to craps???
    More like a 5% IF YOU ARE LUCKY.
    So, they'd have to assign you like a $5000 average, to have thoSE kind of theo numbers...unless someone isnt giving correct info.
    If you're truly playing $100 on the table, average, then you'd at best, earn $5 per hour in theo..
    so somewhere, somethings not right.
     
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  8. BayouBengal

    BayouBengal VIP Whale

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    As for the numbers being "fine" it depends on what you're being comped. If you're in a basic room with minimal food comps then it should be excellent. If you're in a suite, getting food, spa, golf, etc.... it's a lot different.
     
  9. CaliWes

    CaliWes Tourist

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    I said I thought I heard either from hosts or on here that ADT is 10%.

    As far as my betting those are my starting play. As I said I full press the first 2 hits on each number and then I half press after that. Theres been plenty of times where I have $2000 placed across the board or $10 - $12K on the table plus sucker bets. I'm sure that my pressing has a huge impact on my ADT.
     
  10. notfromconcentrate

    notfromconcentrate Low-Roller

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    To be clear, ADT = Average Daily Theoretical... that is expressed as an absolute, not relative figure. Used correctly in a sentence, one might say "My ADT last trip was $700". To say 10%, it doesn't make any sense... 10% of what, exactly?

    Where 10% might be used in a context of ADT is in expressing how much of your theoretical loss will be given back to you in the form of comps. Your theoretical loss is the house's profit. So they're not going to comp all of it to you.

    Your theoretical loss in craps will depend heavily on what kinds of bets you place. It's simpler in games like roulette, where the only variable is whether you're playing at a 0 or 00 wheel. Using that as an example, with a 5.26% house edge on a 00 wheel, if over three days you play seven sessions of two hours each at a $50 wager average with about 40 spins per hour, your theoretical loss will be $1,472.80 - and your resulting ADT will be $490.93 (the average per day over three days).

    How much of this you stand to be given back in comps - THAT is expressed as a percentage, and depends on many things such as the casino, your track record, and your host's discretion.

    ADT is usually used as a comp metric because what you actually get comped is relative to your ADT. More particularly, if your ADT is $67, I would think you're probably getting your hands on a meal for one (since this would have a value of $20-$25 or about 1/3 of your ADT). If your ADT is $500, I'm thinking you'll be getting a room comp (since this would have a value between $100 and $150, or 20%-30%).
     
  11. TIMSPEED

    TIMSPEED !địt mẹ!

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    Ahh ha...well then, like I said earlier, they must be recording your "average" bet, MUCH MUCH MUCH higher than $100...just didn't want to give the wrong idea to anyone.
     
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  12. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Who knows how they do things in AC, but:

    At max, they should be giving you theo of 1.5% on your place bets, and a max of 100 hands per hour.

    $160 * 100 * 8 hours = $128,000 bet and $1,920 theo/day

    My guess is the theo they really give you is closer to 1%, so make your rated theo closer to $1,300/day.

    So it sounds like the numbers they gave you are in line, maybe you're not getting much credit for your presses or the carny bets. Either way, that's plenty of play.
     
  13. rycelover

    rycelover High-Roller

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    That's an excellent explanation notfromconcentrate and Chuck; thanks!

    On another note, I've noticed a difference in daily theo between craps pits in LV and AC.

    Here are some stats I obtained for two recent trips, first to LV for the Super Bowl: my total theoretical for Caesars was 1804 but I had play at several other CET properties with combined theoretical of 1022. So my total theoretical in LV for Super Bowl weekend was about 2826. If I divide that by 5 (the number of days I played while I was there) I would have 565 as my avg daily theo.

    On my trip to AC as described above in my first post, Caesars had me with a 1448 theoretical and Bally’s a 2675 theoretical. Add those together and divide by 3 (the number of days I was there) gets me an avg daily theo of 1374.

    I always make the same bets and play the same way in terms of starting bets and pressing winners, so I have a feeling that the daily theo was lower for LV because the pit boss was too busy taking care of too many tables and not able to keep tabs on the flow of the roll and pressing of bets. I noticed that in every craps section, one pit boss would oversee several craps tables at the same time, so they tend to float around.

    However, in AC, there's a dedicated boxman who sits in a chair and doesn't move around and can be seen frequently recording data in the computer terminal. He/she has a better perspective in terms of changes in bet sizes, etc. I believe having a dedicated boxman may explain the vast difference in adt calculations between AC and Vegas given that my play is consistent vis a vis my buy-in, betting amounts and time played each session.
     
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