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Table Games A question for the experienced Baccarat guys??

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by Bamfbowhunter, May 1, 2012.

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  1. Bamfbowhunter

    Bamfbowhunter Low-Roller

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    I have not had the chance to play bacc yet.. I am going to vegas june 6-9 and i am for sure going to play.. Im a low roller but i want the feel of getting to touch the cards and stuff. So i am going to go play the 25$ table i have read about at Flamingo..

    Here is my question?

    How do you decide on a betting pattern? Also how many hands do you keep pressing b4 you decide to take it back down to avoid a big loss?? Could some one give me a good strategy starting with a 25$ bet? Or at least explain to me the theory behind how much to press and when to press?
     
  2. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    i don't have a set pattern, i just try to follow the shoe. for example, if banker is winning 2 out of every 3 hands, i will just bet banker every hand. if it's chopping a lot, banker-player-banker-etc, i will bet that. there's also more complex patterns like every second line bank or player or every second line that hits goes to the third line, etc. you just have to watch the board and try to figure out patterns that are occuring and play them. it's more guessing than science, but it's fun to try to predict what's going to happen next ... especially if you get it right!

    as far as pressing, if i'm on a run where i'm winning every hand, i never lower my bet once i start pressing. yes, you always lose that last bet when the streak ends, but you never know when that's going to happen. so if you lower it and end up winning another 10 in a row, you left a lot of money on the table. that's why i never lower, always just keep pressing until i hit table max and keep it there until i lose. i've seen a guy start with $1000 and betting $100 per hand and walk away an hour later with $30k because he hit a bunch of streaks and wasn't afraid to keep pressing over $1k/hand when he was hitting.

    however, i will raise/lower my bet if i'm seeing one particular pattern. for example if i see that the second line bank is hitting, i may bet a lower amount every hand and then when banker wins one hand, i put a big bet out on the second line. if you can do that successfully a few times, you can win a ton of money even without winning a bunch in a row. just gotta win the big bets.

    press as much as you feel comfortable. one way to press is pick a certain amount and press up every time you win. so a conservative approach would be 25, 30, 35, 40, etc. more aggressive would be 25, 40, 55, 70, etc. most aggressive would be 25, 50, 75, 100, etc. that one works great when you win more than a few in a row, but can be frustrating when you keep winning 2 or 3 in a row and then losing and giving back everything you won.
     
  3. Bamfbowhunter

    Bamfbowhunter Low-Roller

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    THanks shifter.. That is exactly the info i was looking for.. I am hoping when i go there will be some one who has played some there at the table with me.. But being at the flamingo and at a 25$ table im not sure what to expect. I know none of the big players will be there..

    What is the littlest table at MGM? that is where i will be staying. I could maybe play a 50$ table the last night but i dont have the bank roll to go any higher than that.
     
  4. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    they have 4 mini tables at the front of the Mansion, but not sure the limits. i know i have seen them at $100 on busy weekends, but i don't play there, so i'm not sure if they go lower during the days or during the week.
     
  5. MisterJJ

    MisterJJ Low-Roller

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    FYI: Following trends and such is pure nonsense. Please don't think that you can somehow predict what will happen next or follow a betting pattern that will actually help you win. It may make the game more interesting to do such things, but none of it changes the odds of you winning. Here is a good intro to the game:http://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/

    And please read about betting systems here: http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/
     
  6. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    Depends. On week nights during the down season it is a $25 table. When it is a heavy night it is a $50 table. It is only one table that has this. It is located to your left the moment you walk in. The other three are $100 tables. This is most of the time. This may change though.

    But really doesn't matter what the table minimum is really. You can turn the table into a $10 or $5 table if you choose. Just play both sides of Banker and Player. Say you are at a $25 table and you want to play $10 betting on Banker. Just put $35 on Banker and $25 on player. Same thing if you think Player is going to win.
     
  7. Ty Webb Jr.

    Ty Webb Jr. Tourist

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    Why would the casino let you do this and circumvent the table minimum? The only reason I could think of is they are waiting for the hand that results in a tie and you lose both bets.
     
  8. jacj2020

    jacj2020 Tourist

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    Ty-

    Neither Player or Banker loose a tie.
     
  9. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    When it is a tie you don't lose. Your bet gets pushed. Why would a casino allows this? Well after a while when you start winning the casino is going to expect you to get over confident and start betting sloppy. From there they get you on the psychology and with their small edge, their winnings are going to get magnified. Happens on many occasions.

    There was a session I sat down on once when I was playing at a $50 table at the Wynn in September of 2011. There was this guy who was spread betting $5 for about some 20 to 30 hands. Pissed me and everyone off because he was wasting time and I was on a positive flow. Then a long Player streak came. That was when he started to whip out $500 here and then $300 to $500 there to play anti-streak after the fourth Player down hoping to go Banker. The Player decision went for 16 down. The mofo took a huge hit. I think it was some $3000 down the hole for him in less than 10 minutes.

    Plus if you win on Banker they get their %5 commission. The casino doesn't care how much they make off you as long they make money off you. Or the supervisor can step in at anytime to bust your chops which I have not seen it happen.
     
  10. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    Bambowhunter,

    Since you have a whole month before you head to Vegas to experience some bac, strongly recommend that you get yourself familiar with the game. Read a book or two and practice on the game at an online bac simulator. You don't want to go some casino and playing/wagering blind. There are too many folks played blindly and had the reality smacked out of them and they took a good hit on the wallet.

    A good book to start is Power Baccarat and practice on an online casino like Players Only.

    Good Luck.
     
  11. Llew

    Llew Low-Roller

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    This is different from betting $10 on banker in that your commission will be larger if you win ($1.75 vs. $0.50). Thus, the house edge is quite a bit larger in this case, which is why they allow it.
     
  12. Llew

    Llew Low-Roller

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    There's no winning strategy or betting method to baccarat, or even any important decisions to be made, except in tourneys against other players. Just pick player or banker and one of them wins. You don't even have to know why or how - it is not important, and knowing these things will not help you win more.

    On the plus side, it has much better odds than betting red/black/odd/even in roulette.

    You do need to know procedures and etiquette, though.
     
  13. JillyFromPhilly

    JillyFromPhilly Tourist

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    Since I thought it would be relevant here, I dug most of this up from an older thread that pretty much explains the way I play baccarat, which I usually refer to as streak betting:

    The idea behind streak betting is when you see a potential streak starting, you try to capitalize on it by pressing your bet every time the same hand repeats until the streak breaks - and then bet low when the shoe is going through a choppy phase - only pressing when a streak seems to be developing. As I've described before in other posts, the way I try to capitalize on this is as follows: I start out with a base bet of 3 units [be they $25, $100, $500 or $1000 or higher chips, whatever your comfort/bankroll level is].

    You sit down and basically start betting on whichever side won the last hand - if it is banker, you put 3 units on banker. If banker wins, next hand you put 4 units on banker. If banker wins again, you put 6 units on banker - and keep progressively upping your bet over and over again until player wins [ the pattern I usually go with is 3-4-6-8-12-16-20, keeping 20 units as my max until the streak breaks]

    Then, when player inevitably wins, you immediately switch to betting 3 units on player - if player keeps winning, you start progressively increasing your bets on player until the streak breaks again - and then you switch back to banker at 3 units - and so on. The idea behind the staggered betting progression - as opposed to a full press up each time is - at least in theory - to preserve some of each victory so that on the last hand when the streak finally breaks you aren't giving back as much of your winnings as you would be if you had doubled up each time - though honestly its been a long time since I sat down & did the math to prove that out - though I'm pretty sure I did a long time ago and it made sense or I wouldn't have started playing that way.

    Is this a winning system? Honestly I've had mixed results - I've won big on streaky shoes - we're talking six-figures big - and I've also lost big on choppy shoes where no streak ever develops - so the key to playing this system is to have a deep enough bankroll to outlast a choppy shoe until a streak or two develops - and from personal experience I've seen many a session where just one or two good streaks can make up for hours of getting your ass kicked by the chop.

    The argument for this style of play - vs. "pattern" betting - is that while it is endlessly arguable whether or not patterns actually exist and are truly detectable or just a construct of the mind of a player looking to find patterns in past results - "streak" betting plays off of the mathematical certainty that - in a game with only 2 primary potential outcomes - there will be times when one side will come out many times in a row - and then tries to capitalize on this mathematical certainty by pressing bets whenever it looks like a streak may be happening.

    True, just as in pattern betting - to a certain extent - you're still trying to predict the future based on past outcomes - the only difference is that no baccarat player will deny that streaks inevitably occur - whereas there are many baccarat players who will deny that patterns actually occur.

    And don't get me wrong - I don't begrudge pattern players their choice or style of play - everyone plays their own way and I'm fine with that - if people think they see patterns and have won that way, more power to them - I don't want to get into that whole argument again LOL - I just prefer streak betting and wanted to offer it as an alternative method [or style or whatever you want to call it] of playing baccarat.
     
  14. WrongWayWade

    WrongWayWade VIP Whale

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    They house has an edge on both player and banker bets. Just because the same player played them both doesn't mean that fact has changed. This doesn't bother the house at all.

    If you played $75 on bank and $50 on player then the house expectation is 75*1.06% + 50*1.24%. They are getting their cut on the full $125, not just the $25 difference.

    A tie pushes both.
     
  15. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    When it comes to pressing bets, it is important to note from a purely mathematical standpoint all this does is raise your average bet size. There is no right or wrong time to press a bet (unless you are playing blackjack and counting cards or otherwise advantage playing). A streak is not a predictable phenomenon.

    What makes bet pressing appealing is the relative psychological merit of the "big win". If you start with a bankroll of an amount you can lose and not feel bad, but a small win won't be exciting for you, pressing your bet increases your chances of walking away with a lot.

    The tradeoff is that it also increases your chances of giving your winnings back or getting cleaned out.

    In other words, someone who sticks to the same bet will have many small wins and losses, sometimes lose their buy in and sometimes double it or slightly more. Someone who presses their bet will get wiped out more often, break even or lose a little more often, and hardly ever get the medium sized win, but every once in a while get a big win.

    How can someone deny that patterns occur? It seems to me the only thing being denied is that the pattern can be observed and predicted mid-pattern, and you can say the exact same about streaks.
     
  16. Ty Webb Jr.

    Ty Webb Jr. Tourist

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    Once again I learn something new. I'm not sure why I thought a tie was a loss, but it was one of the reasons I haven't tried this game. The other reason being the generally higher minimums. I would still think that the casino would frown upon synthetically lowering the minimum bet (especially if it was a full table, an empty one I could see them being more accommodating), but if it's possible...

    Armed with this new found knowledge maybe I'll give it a try next time.

    Thanks!
     
  17. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    The only reason lowering the average bet would upset them because it lowers their HA. Betting both sides like that actually keeps the HA the same.it's just about the worst thing you can do from a gamblers perspective because it raises how much you're fight ing the uphill battle against the house and significantly lowers your chances of booking a winner.
     
  18. Ty Webb Jr.

    Ty Webb Jr. Tourist

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    I know you're right, but I look at the extra disadvantage as my cost of learning the game. When/if I can engineer the minimum down, that extra HA doesn't account for too much, especially if it doesn't take too long for me to get comfortable with everything.

    I know I can play for free online to learn, but it's never the same as being at a real table (same reason I love live poker and detest(ed) online poker). When playing for free online I get bored quickly and start betting like you and Natedog666, not very realistic for what I'd actually do in a casino.
     
  19. JillyFromPhilly

    JillyFromPhilly Tourist

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    Well, actually no - the difference between patterns and streaks is that streaks are mathematically certain to occur - if you look at a situation with only two possible outcomes, there is no doubt that over time occasionally one side will come out 2, 5, even 10 or more times in a row - it doesn't matter where in the shoe you are, or when it is going to happen - it is mathematically certain to happen every so often - so when you're streak betting, you are anticipating an inevitable event to occur and pressing your bets in a manner that will theoretically allow you to capitalize on that event if and when it occurs - one hand at a time.

    When you are pattern betting, you are attempting to divine future outcomes - more than one hand at a time - you are looking at the results that have come out over a length of time - and then anticipating not only what the next hand will be, but presumably also what the next several hands will be, based upon the outcome in the shoe up to that point - to which there is no mathematical proof - unless you actually know in advance what the exact order of every card in the shoe is, there is no accurate way to actually predict what the outcome of any hand will be - it is purely, totally random based upon the shuffle of the deck - perhaps there is the most fractional percent of a percent possibility that if the first 24 hands come out PBPBPPBBPPBBPBPBPPBBPPBB than the next 24 hands will also come out PBPBPPBBPPBBPBPBPPBBPPBB - but the probability is much greater that at any point one side will come out 2 or more times in a row than that any other potential outcome other than a pure 50-50 rotation between the two outcomes will occur.

    There is a fundamental, proveable mathematical basis that one-side winning streaks - regardless of length - will occur every so often in a scenario with only two primary outcomes [like flipping a coin repeatedly] - and that this anomaly will occur far more frequently than any other potential anomalous series of outcomes that could be perceived as patterns that will be replicated going forward. Betting for streaks takes every hand and anticipates that the next hand - yes, based on the previous hand - but the important note here is based upon the outcome of the previous hand only - might be the beginning or continuation of a one sided streak - something that we know is mathematically likely to occur fairly regularly - so you continue pressing until the streak breaks - but using a staggered progression of pressing, preserving some of each victory back to your bankroll anticipates and acknowledges the fact that the streak could break at any moment - whereas looking at it from a pattern player's perspective as PPBBPPBB came out the last eight hands so therefore PPBBPPBB is going to be the results of the next eight hands so therefore I'm going to bet player twice and then switch to betting the two hands after that to banker and so on - and pressing bets based upon this anticipatin - is purely a guessing game with no mathematical basis to it - though perhaps it is, as Shifter said, more fun to guess and be right than to strictly wait for a long, one-sided streak to occur.
     
  20. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    honestly there's the same probability that the next X hands will be some random pattern than that they will all be player or banker. for example, assuming a 50/50 chance between the two for ease of calculations, the odds of BBB are 1/8. the odds of BPB are also 1/8. same with BBBBBBBBB or BPPBPPBPP. the odds of both are 0.001953125. so playing some random pattern based on the previous X hands or playing a one sided streak have the same theoretical outcome.

    however, i think when you play patterns you can basically "create" an awesome shoe out of total crap. i've had 2 amazing streak shoes in my life. 26/28 player last year and 29/30 banker last trip. those were awesome, but those are 2 out of hundreds of shoes. however, i've had total crappy looking shoes that i won a ton of money on because every second line bank hit. or every red dot on the big eye road went blue. or every first blue line on the cockroach road went another blue. or every player went to bank and vice versa. or any number of patterns that i picked.

    if one of these patterns hits 15-20 times in a row in a shoe, that's as good as a 15-20 player/banker streak. and i can press my bets on these up just like a consecutive streak and murder the shoe. but if you just look at the consecutive streaks on these shoes, you might see something that looks like total crap and lose money. but following one or more patterns, i made a killing. that's why i like following the shoe and betting patterns instead of just picking a specific pattern before you start.
     
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