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A Little Baseball Help Please

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by mistermoe, Jul 18, 2014.

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  1. mistermoe

    mistermoe Low-Roller

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    I am new to betting baseball. I have only made four bets and won two of them. A four team parlay and a two team parlay. However, I have picked a few games without betting just to get a feel for betting baseball. Had I bet every game, I would have lost way more than I have won. My question is what information or details should I be looking for in order to get a better idea of teams to pick. So far I prefer two or three team parlays using at least one underdog, sometimes two. I will bet single games, they are just not as much fun or lucrative! WHIP, ERA, pitching records...??? Any advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks!

    Moe
     
  2. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    This is a broad broad question as everything from pitching match-ups to weather to travel days come into play.

    Is a rookie pitcher making his debut (or still within a couple starts of his debut) against an ace pitcher?

    Is a pitcher coming off the DL?

    Is it a day game (getaway day) after a night game? Sometimes managers will sit older players during the day games (especially catchers)

    Don't be drawn to certain teams based on reputation (ex Yankees...they're not the Yankees of old or Red Sox (they suck this year)

    Parlay's are fun and I ALWAYS bet them. I have hit quite a few two to five teamers.I also like to do what I call "hail mary parlay's" where I bet 7-8-9-10 teamers (missed hitting a ten teamer by two points in an NBA game once). But they are hard to win at (obviously...hence the nice payoffs)

    Also if you're going to bet parlay's look for value in the totals as well. Over/Under can be easier to bet than the actual outcome of the games.

    If I see a team riding a winning streak I will really look at their matchup's that day because they're more than likely to be an overwhelming favorite. So if I see the Phillies are on a six game winning streak but happen to have to start a young pitcher or a sorry one like Roberto Hernandez I will examine that matchup because the team they're playing will have value. For argument's sake let's say the Phillies are -240 because they're being bet heavily on that streak. Their opponent may be starting a solid pitcher and it could be a day game where I know certain guys will be sitting.

    Even though I am a huge sports fan and watch and read just about everything I can...when I am going to Vegas and know I will be hitting the sports bets hard I will read tons of newspapers and game re-caps for the previous week or two for MLB and NBA games. I will also buy the morning papers to read while eating breakfast and have the daily lines sheet from whatever book I will be using there with me.
     
  3. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    This what I did a few years ago when I started betting sports, to see how my picks would work out, then when I started to get a better hang on things I went to an online sportsbook and bought in with a few bucks and would bet just $1-2 per wager to get a better handle on how I was doing.

    Some of my random thoughts on baseball betting would be:

    I don't bet rivalries: even though one team might be the obvious favorite when it comes to rivalries, like NYY/BOS as an example, a lot of players on both sides will show up for the game.

    Don't feel like you have to bet every game: thats maybe not too common in baseball but with the NFL you see that all the time. When somebody is saying "I really don't know who to pick on this one, its such a toss up... oh heck I think I'll just flip a coin" - if its such a difficult decision then why not just pass on the game?

    A lot of a game's line comes from the pitchers: if Team A's pitcher has an ERA of 4.5 and Team B's pitcher has an ERA of 2.95 then Team B is going to be a huge favorite - if you can look past that it might turn out that Team A is the better bet if their players are all clicking and other factors are working to their advantage.

    Night games tend to generally have lower scores, but also certain ballparks tend to favor lower scores due to a lot of external factors (San Francisco, Seattle, Colorado as examples).

    On the same note there are some ballparks that are "home run friendly" (Texas, Arizona and NYY as examples) and for games in those parks for those games I look for who are better at hitting right now than who is pitching.

    I almost never bet games that have "troublemaker teams" - those are teams it really just depends who is going to show up that night. Like a team might be a big favorite but their batters have a habit of phoning it in every once in a while, or the team is a bit of a dog but every once in a while the team totally clicks and they can mow over the best (examples would be Toronto and Kansas City).

    I don't, but some people check things like if its a travel day, like the team had to fly from the east coast to the west coast in the morning and they have a game that night. Some will also check stats for things like who tends to have a lot of one run games while others check the weather forecasts - if you search the net you can find just about anything for tidbits of information that might help your picks.
     
  4. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I focus on the pitcher vs. the other team matchup
     
  5. mistermoe

    mistermoe Low-Roller

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    Thank all of you for your input..great ideas! I've been reading up on the net, but some of that stuff is way too technical. I'm looking at this as more of a hobby, but I want to be decent at it. Don't want to just throw away money. If I wanted to do that i'd by a boat. Thank you all.
    I am going to just pick them for a couple of weeks and get a feel for it and then move forward and probably set up an account on Bovada.
     
  6. chonglosaxon

    chonglosaxon MIA

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    Play against a teams ace on the road if theyvhave been.on the road for atleast two series. You will find some good value on home teams because the good pitcher may have tired from getting out of the routine he normally has at home. This angle will cash quite a bit at the +170 and above threshold
     
  7. mistermoe

    mistermoe Low-Roller

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    "This angle will cash quite a bit at the +170 and above threshold"

    Some of the experts say never bet on teams at +160 or above. I do not agree! I've won using those teams in my parlays and won. Good value there if u pick the right game.


    Thanks Changlo...have to keep that in mind.
     
  8. Hershey

    Hershey Tourist

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    There is an old saying when betting baseball that "the chalk side is wrong side", meaning that if you bet too many favorites all of that extra vigorish you have to lay will eventually suck up any profits. If I like really do like 2 big favorites I will usually parlay them together.
     
  9. mistermoe

    mistermoe Low-Roller

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    I usually parlay 2 dogs and 1 favorite or two favs and 1 dog. Has been working well lately, especially the dogs!!
     
  10. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    It took me awhile to learn to not think with my team bias and to look for value. I used to never bet on any of the Phillies divisional rivals but now if I see value in it I will throw down.

    I also like to parlay the favorites I like to get a better pay out.
     
  11. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

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    In baseball I bet totals with the home plate umpire as a key factor.
    I don't just look at an umpire's over/under record I am more interested in the strikeout and walk numbers.
    Plus , watch enough games and you know what kind of strikezone the individual umpires have.
    Some pitchers get along well with certain umpires since maybe the pitcer like to nibble on the corners and the umpire has a wide strike zone etc
    There are umpires out there who move the lines.
     
  12. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    CB Bucknor and Angel Hernandez are one who I will seek and bet on totals with!
     
  13. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

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    when the umpires assignments are released for the first game of a series and Eddings is listed behind the plate watch the total move
     
  14. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

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  15. RockyBalboa

    RockyBalboa VIP Whale

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    Nice resource - thanks!!
     
  16. mistermoe

    mistermoe Low-Roller

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    Never even considered umpires. Thanks!
     
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