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2015 NCAA Basketball Championship

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by UKFanatic, Feb 2, 2015.

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  1. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    With the Super Bowl over, my thoughts are now turning to this event. I took a chunk of my SB winnings from Sunday night and decided to wager on a couple teams to win the basketball championship.

    Of course, I would love to bet on my Cats, but the odds are -110 at the moment and that is ridiculous. They are a really good team with a fantastic defense, but they certainly could lose. There's no way I am betting any team -110 on a futures bet in a 64 team field! So I examined the other teams I think stand the best chance to win it all: UVA, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Utah, Duke, UNC, Kansas, and Note Dame. I know there are other schools I could throw in the mix, but IMO, those teams stand the best chance.

    I ended up placing wagers on Virginia, Zona and Kansas to win it all. I really wanted to bet on Utah, hoping they would have 50 to 1 odds. Alas, it was only 35 to 1, and I didn't feel strongly enough about them to bet on them at those odds. I think injuries will catch up with Wisconsin and I like to bet on teams with better defenses than Duke or ND. I really like the Virginia and Zona defenses, so that left three choices for my final wager. I eliminated Zaga because I think their record and stats are somewhat inflated artificially by their schedule. Ultimately, I placed $500 on Kansas at 20 to 1 because I think they have more room to get better than UNC. Now I just need to hope that the three teams I wagered on don't end up in the same bracket!!
     
  2. OhioStateAlum

    OhioStateAlum Low-Roller

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    Kansas at 20:1 looks like a pretty nice value. I'd take a look at Iowa State too, they have a LOT of firepower. Full disclosure: I may be biased because I really like Fred Hoiberg as a coach. I had ISU winning the whole damn thing in my bracket last year and had their best player, Georges Niang, not broken his foot on opening weekend I think they would have had a great shot.
     
  3. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    If have to say I'd go with Virginia or Duke of it were me. Although I believe it's Kentucky's championship to lose and I mean lose. No one is going to "beat" Kentucky they will have to "beat themselves." That said any given night in college hoops and at -110 there's no value. So I'd go with Virginia who plays great defense and Duke because they're due for a run in March and they're the only team to beat UVA and it might say that way til March.
     
  4. OhioStateAlum

    OhioStateAlum Low-Roller

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    I've only seen Kentucky play about 60 minutes this year but I'd tend to agree, though they did have a lull defensively a few weeks ago.

    UK, do you think these Cats are better than the 2012 version? I watched a lot of that team and they were one of the better teams I've ever seen. 2010 was no slouch either.
     
  5. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I like ISU and Hoiberg also, but their defense is atrocious. I suppose mediocre defensive teams win the championship some years, but I am a big believer in defense, rebounding, and strong guard play come March. And ISU definitely does not have one of those. Fun team to watch, though
     
  6. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Not even close to the 2012 team. The only advantage this team has over that year is depth. But that 2012 team was better at every position. The guards on this team are better on ball defenders than Teague and Lamb were in 2012, but that team had Davis to erase almost every mistake. I watched every UK game that year and Davis truly was one of those once a decade, game-changing kind of players. Nobody on UK this year (or on any other team in the country for that matter) even holds a candle to Anthony Davis
     
  7. thunderdave

    thunderdave Low-Roller

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    I live in Ames and when Iowa State wants to play hard, they are damn good. The problem is, they can get selfish and not play as a team.
    I don't think Kansas is good enough to warrant a championship bet, they just don't have it this year, imo.
    I fully expect KU to win big tonight, even though ISU embarrassed KU in Ames earlier this year.
     
  8. OhioStateAlum

    OhioStateAlum Low-Roller

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    I agree. 2012 was a runaway freight train that just went downhill at teams 100MPH when they took the ball off of the glass. From what I've seen of this team, they seem to squeeze the life out of their opponents by making every shot attempt a chore with their length. Anthony Davis was so fun to watch. He impacted games defensively the way Greg Oden did in college. His offensive game then wasn't nearly as polished as it is now, but goodness he was fantastic.
     
  9. NCAAHoops

    NCAAHoops Low-Roller

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    UK just wondering what your thoughts are on what the difference will be on UK odds, to win the trnmt, will be once the 64 field is set? Do you think they will be less than -110? I do not recall a team being less than even money but then I do not look at the props all that much.
     
  10. chess

    chess VIP Whale

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    UK...
    Press Virginia my friend....and no I don't mean UVA.............
     
  11. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Not sure, but can't imagine it would change, assuming the top teams stay healthy. Still five or six weeks of regular season to be played and lots can happen during that time. But if the tournament were announced tomorrow, my guess is that the odds for the top teams would remain close to what they are now.
     
  12. stickc

    stickc Tourist

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    Went to watch your Cats in Tuscaloosa play my Tide,,WOW....KY is big and athletic,,,,Anything can happen but you guys are GOOD,,,,
     
  13. NCAAHoops

    NCAAHoops Low-Roller

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    That was my thought as well. However by waiting you get the advantage of seeing the brackets. I will have to consider the odds come march as they will be a VERY TOUGH out
     
  14. Champster1

    Champster1 High-Roller

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    Good idea ncaahoops. No way I'd bet zona, Kansas and UVA right now. They could all wind up in the same brackets ( instant loser for 2 of the 3) before the first tip. I guarantee that if you wait the line gets better for UK fans, plus by then they will have lost a game ( quote me). My suggestion is do your homework, set your $$$ aside, book a SWA flight to Vegas for around March 18th and get ready to have the time of your life. You guys got my juices flowing! T-43 days till MMIV (March Madness In Vegas).
     
    March Madness...here I come !!
  15. oldcrabtom

    oldcrabtom Low-Roller

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    How are the crowds the weekend of 28/29 Mar? (Less than the opening WE?)...........thanks
     
  16. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Yes, significantly less. Still a lot of fans and the sportsbooks will be full. But not nearly the same crowds as the first weekend
     
  17. oldcrabtom

    oldcrabtom Low-Roller

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    Thanks dont care for big crowds
     
  18. WichitaMuskie

    WichitaMuskie Low-Roller

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    I love that weekend as well as the conference tournament weekend (as you can see below).
     
    Conference Tournament Weekend
  19. bjpcyclone

    bjpcyclone High-Roller

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    ISU grad and huge fan. ISU almost has 2 of the 3 things you look for. They have a top PG in Morris who doesn't turn the ball over, the do a slightly above average job rebounding the ball, and with McKay in the middle, have a really good shot blocker now. But I agree with you on their defense, it's bad. If, and its a big if, they can get their 3 pt defense/closeout under control, it will (and has at times) be much better. But keep in mind that they play so fast, their opponents get many more possessions each game which leads to higher scoring against them.

    When they are on, look out. When they aren't, they are very, very beatable. But at 50/1 right now (on Bovada), I think they are worth taking a flyer on as a long shot because they do have the ability to get red hot.
     
  20. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I hear ya and I like ISU. Definitely one of the teams I prefer to watch. But their defense is just awful. And I don't look at point totals to reach that conclusion (because you're absolutely right about the number of possessions). They play fast, but they give up a lot of points per possession. And, IMO, they are only an average rebounding team. if they rebounded better, I think their defense would improve and I would like their chance better. But if they get hot, they can beat anybody
     
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