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2013 US Open - Merion GC, Pennsylvania

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by DReynolds86, Apr 17, 2013.

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  1. DReynolds86

    DReynolds86 Come On, You Blues!

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    Odds were released earlier this week and Tiger is the clear favorite.

    Thinking if putting $25 on Tiger and $10 on Snedeker and Jason Day, respectively. Thoughts?
     
  2. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

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    The value in golf betting right now is in the mid-level plays. The tour is deeper in talent than it has ever been. Tiger is an awful bet for a few reasons. The biggest reason is that he's the most popular golfer, therefore every Tom, Dick and Harry who decides to throw a bet down will do so on Tiger. That's also the reason that Phil was at 10/1 to win the Masters which is a joke. The odds that Tiger gets on these majors were only justified 8-10 years ago when he was dominant and in his prime. Personally I don't bet on any golfer if they're not at least 15/1. There is simply way too many talented golfers on the tour to take the favorites at paltry odds.

    Other things working against Tiger:

    Hasn't won a major in 5 years
    He's putting better than he ever has in his career (can he keep it up though?)
    However he is spraying the ball off the tee more than ever. That doesn't work at the US Open when you have 6-7" rough.
    Merion is pretty short, which doesn't give longer hitters like Tiger any advantage

    Bottom line is Tiger (or anyone else) at low odds is a sucker bet in a major golf tournament. There are simply too many variables, and too many talented golfers to accept single digit odds on a tournament that anyone could win.
     
  3. DeMoN2318

    DeMoN2318 The DERS

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    Just my opinion here but Tiger would have won the Master if it wasn't for that bad luck at 15...hitting the pin and ricocheting into the water...thats two wasted strokes right there...then the improper drop penalty (which wouldn't have ever happened had he not hit the pin) two more wasted strokes. And not to mention the two or three bad break lip outs he had...but that's not necessarily bad luck...so I'll neglect those.

    That would have put him right at the top of the leader board and mentally I think he would have been more stable and played better...even if Tiger didn't play any different though, I think the extra pressure on Cabrera and Scott, knowing they need to beat Tiger, would have got to them...Scott wouldn't have made that clutch putt on 72 and Cabrera would have choked somewhere else on the course. But even if it was a three person playoff, I think Tiger would have won...Tiger lives for those moments. If Tiger wasn't away on the green, Scott and Cabrerra would have the mindset "I must make this cause I know Tiger is going to make his". Thats too much pressure for Scott to handle...and Cabrera choked as it was.

    So my point is...Tiger has a very real chance of winning a Major this year...if not two.
     
  4. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

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    This thought process is the same as saying if the Bulls had hit that 3 pointer in the first quarter they would have beat the Knicks because they only lost by 2 points. It doesn't work because everything after that point would have been changed as well. Tiger only got to where he did on Sunday because he was being very aggressive because he was so far back. He knew he had to put up a low number to even have a chance.

    So if he hadn't had a bad break on Friday, perhaps he would have been in it, but it might not have mattered either. The fact is that he didn't win the Master's and he was never really in contention on the weekend. If your aunt had balls she'd be your uncle.

    And the statement that Tiger might win two majors this year is laughable. He won't ever win a British again as it simply doesn't suit his game. US Open's aren't going to be easy for him either. His best chances are PGAs and Master's, and there's only one of those left.

    Bottom line is the Tiger of the early - mid 2000's will never be back. He's past his peak (not to say he's not still good, he's just not as good as he was), and the tour is full of guys who train like Tiger, grew up watching Tiger, and can all pound the ball just as far as Tiger, and most importantly, NONE of them are afraid of Tiger like guys were in 2002.

    ETA: This doesn't mean that he won't win another Major (this year or otherwise) but in terms of betting on it, there have been 19 majors since Tiger won at Torrey Pines, and they've been won by 17 different golfers. So you should be able to see that when you're only getting 4.5/1 (or during the Masters I saw Tiger as low as 3/1) Tiger is simply put an awful value.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2013
  5. RAWDAWG33

    RAWDAWG33 Low-Roller

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    Ian pouter @ 60/1 for 10 and Charles Howell @ 100/1

    Two semi sleeper bets but like the above poster said if you are putting money on a golf major why not put it where you can have a huge exciting win with little risk.
     
  6. DReynolds86

    DReynolds86 Come On, You Blues!

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    I'm still liking Jason Day at 40/1.
     
  7. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

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    Day isn't a bad play. Just to further explain what I'm trying to say, look at it this way:

    Jason Day is 40/1
    Tiger is 4.5/1

    Do you think that Tiger is about 10 times more likely to win the US Open than Jason Day?
     
  8. DeMoN2318

    DeMoN2318 The DERS

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    I completely agree with you that 4.5:1 is a horrible bet...I'm not arguing that...with so many factors and variables in golf anything under 20:1 in golf is a bad bet to me. And I agree that the "if this then that" arguments when it comes to sports are difficult...but my whole point is that Tiger was indeed in contention at the Master's and would have been more so if not for that bad break on 15...yea bad breaks happen in golf...but hitting the flag stick, ok yea it happens more often that one would expect...but then it ricocheting into the hazard...horrible luck...and then the two stroke penalty...come on. He hits a great shot, had the unfortune of hitting the pin and then takes a 4 stroke hit...ridiculous.

    There is no way of knowing how he would have played if he went into Sunday leading...I agree...but it is a fact that he usually wins (52-4) when going into the final round leading or sharing. And there is most certainly an intimidation factor to the field when Tiger is playing well and atop the leader board.

    Would I bet on Tiger winning the US open? not at 4.5:1...
    Would I bet on Tiger winning a major this year or next? Definitely
     
  9. DeMoN2318

    DeMoN2318 The DERS

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    True...but do you think Tiger is 100 times more likely to win than Michael Campbell? yea probabaly haha
     
  10. Whale83

    Whale83 Tourist

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    If you bet on the field, is that anyone but Tiger or anyone but those listed above?
     
  11. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

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    It's anyone but those listed above. However, some books will have a bet like "Will Tiger Woods win the 2013 US Open?" and you can bet on Yes or No (The field). The Palazzo had this for the Masters and it was +200 for Tiger and -200 for the field.
     
  12. Viva Las Vegas

    Viva Las Vegas Ramblin' Gamblin' Man

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    I like $60 on Matt Kuchar @30/1 & $30 on Ian Poulter @ 60/1.
     
  13. gotavegasjones

    gotavegasjones VIP Whale

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    Viva Las Vegas - I'll be rooting for Tiger. But, I like your betting strategy. I think that in the next year or two, Kuchar or Poulter or Jason Day could win a major.

    BTW - I'll be at Merion June 14-17. This will be my 3rd US Open. Peeble Beach 2010 and and The Olympic Club 2012. In 2015 I am planning on being at Chambers Bay in Tacoma, WA as a USGA volunteer. Attending a US Open is a great time - if you are a avid golfer or fan. If you haven't already attendded one, I hope you have the oppportunity to do so.

    later, GVJ
     
  14. DeMoN2318

    DeMoN2318 The DERS

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    So if you bet that same amount (lets say $5) on everyone at 80/1 and better (71 people) and any one of them wins the tournament then you make money...ranging from $45 to $4645

    so you have a 71/99 chance of winning....

    Am I missing something?
     
  15. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

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    Put down my US Open Bets last week. I took:

    DJ @ 30/1 - $50
    Kuchar @ 30/1 - $50
    Haas @ 80/1 - $40
    ZJ @ 70/1 - $20
    Choi @ 70/1 -$20
    Molonari @ 125/1 - $10
    Scott Piercy @ 150/1 - $20
    Keegan @ 50/1 - $40
    Henley @ 200/1 - $20
    Mannessaro @ 150/1 - $10

    We'll see how it works out for me. I love the US Open, as it is the truest test of who the best all around golfer is. You have to have length, have to be accurate, and have to have a very good short game.
     
  16. NickyDim

    NickyDim VIP Whale

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    ANGEL CABRERA 80/1

    [​IMG]
     
  17. 4Eyes

    4Eyes Low-Roller

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    Merion is a short (<7,000 yards), flat course. Given the expected USGA setup and the makeup of the course, players that are accurate but not necessarily long off of the tee, and good putters, should be favored.

    At the odds you posted, I like Snedeker (25/1), GMac (30/1), Tim Clark (80/1), and, for my longshot picks, John Huh (150/1) and Greg Chalmers (150/1).

    To the OP: Where did you find these odds? I did the math and the house PC is 36.1%, which is about average for LV Futures bets.
     
  18. Duke Always Covers

    Duke Always Covers Tourist

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    best bet

    The winner three years ago & the runner-up last year at 30-1? Yes, please, Graeme McDowell.
     
  19. stackinchips

    stackinchips High-Roller

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    I'm down to just Hunter Mahan, but I like his chances. He's hitting almost every fairway, and hasn't had some of the ups and downs of the other guys around the top of the leaderboard. Phil's implosion should begin in about 4 hours. He's gotten very fortunate so far at Merion on his erratic tee shots.

    It should be a great finish. All we know right now is that all the people taking the sucker Tiger bet have donated their money.
     
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