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Table Games 1-2-3 Progression "System"

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by OneManWolfPack, Apr 20, 2014.

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  1. OneManWolfPack

    OneManWolfPack Tourist

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    As it is so simple, I am sure I am not the first to think up this strategy. I am hoping someone more analytical than I can give me some math on it and tell me if it is a worthy strategy for live play.

    I came up with it playing no commission pai gow (truly no commission, no odd qualifiers to keep it free, just that my casino makes their money on fortune bets and progressive tries).

    Here it is.

    Bet 1 unit. If you win
    Bet 2 units. If you win
    Bank 1 unit, bet 3 units. If you win
    Bank 6 units. Series over, start again with 1 unit.

    If you lose any you start the series over. If you push, repeat the last bet.

    Had bad hands all day. Made it to the 3 unit bet several times but always got a pai gow in my hand and probably only converted 1 try.

    Was -18 units after 7 hours of play, but I put that on poor luck. We played pai gow hoping to hit a hot seat promotion where they draw you to pick cash envelopes. My friend got picked for the 2nd week in a row but took that long to get picked.

    She was down nearly 200$ flat betting 3 units and playing the 1$ progressive. I told her not to play the progressive, instead play the 123 method and if she made it to the third level, she could bet the bonus on those bets only to prevent her from being taxed on the majority of her hands.

    I like that you stay even after 2 wins and go for a huge score on the 3rd. Am I missing something. Could I modify it to lock up more wins?

    I like it for pai gow but I think it really has potential in craps taking advantage of hot shooters and locking up wins against the eventual 7 out.

    Thanks for reading, hope to see a few replies if you have something to share.
     
  2. dankyone

    dankyone VIP Whale

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    You are still exposing your bankroll to the same house percentage you would be with or without your gimmicky/voodoo system, so it really doesn't matter.

    Minus 18 after 7 hours is a decent result with or without any non AP "system". Since your betting unit sounds too low to get any real comps, you've done fine. Don't even bother with a "system" of this nature, and enjoy the game.
     
  3. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    I'll say this about positive progressions - they are far better than negative progressions. For the player is flat-betting on negative runs, just as he would be if he wasn't playing the progression.
    If a losing streak occurs after a winning one, the most he risks here is 3-units...and that risk is actually only 2 units (having banked one on the 2nd win).

    As with any other progression, the real downside is the "W-L-W-L-W-L..." pattern, which occurs a lot, especially in pai gow (with a bunch of pushes thrown in).
    Flat-betting that notorious pattern leaves you even after 6 events. Playing this progression with that pattern leaves you down 3 units after 6 events:
     
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  4. The Furry One

    The Furry One Low-Roller

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    I rarely do more than flat bet myself, especially in Pai Gow - my own 'system' doesn't allow it unless the bonus bet or envy hits for a nice amount ... but why not start pressing only after a second consecutive win rather than the first to try and help alleviate any alternating wins and loss sequences (ignoring pushes) that will inevitably eat into your bankroll with your strategy as it stands?

    I should point out that I'm a very conservative player and not really mad into progressions unless or until I have secured the complete safety of my original bankroll so please feel free to take no notice of anything I ever say on the subject lol.

    Furry
     
  5. Fafa2e

    Fafa2e Low-Roller

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    I use a less aggressive progression for blackjack, but as a previous poster suggested, positive progression systems rely on winning streaks to result in any significant wins.

    I was playing blackjack this past weekend using a 3-4-6 then +2 unit positive progression and just got killed because I never got above 6 units and ended up with the W-L-W-L pattern.
     
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  6. DonnyC

    DonnyC VIP Whale

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    Can you curb that by...

    #1 Bet 1 unit, win (bank 1)
    #2 Bet 1 unit, win (next hand bet 2)
    #3 Bet 2 units, win (bank 1)
    #4 Bet 3 units
     
  7. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    Sure...but then you're needing 4 consecutive wins for it to pay-off. That's a lot more rare than 3.
     
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