NFL > 10.31.13 : Cincinnati -3

YTD: 10-7 (+2.30 units)

Love this play.

Miami has a lot of issues right now. I am surprised this line has not moved. Cincinnati is playing like Super Bowl contenders.

Cincinnati -3 (+100) William Hill

 

I like the play... one of the stranger stories in the NFL is going on in Miami this week involving a second-year starting O-Lineman... another teammate "pranked" him in the cafeteria a couple days ago and he got pissed, slammed the cafeteria tray down and left... hasn't been heard from since?

 

It looks like the line opened at -1, and it is a road game (See STL/Seattle Monday night).

Having said that, my money is on Cincy!

 

Cincy is in a bad spot tonight. I'm on the other side but good luck anyway.

 

I am not sure what I was looking at.

There has been line movement. It moved from 2.5 to 3 yesterday.

Still like the play.

 

What does that mean?

 

It means CIN won't cover according to my handicapping.

Mia may even win this SU.

Also Mia suffers a crushing defeat last week vs Pats while CIN crushes the NYJ. I believe the bengals have won 4 or 5 in row and perception is these teams are heading in different directions.

CIN opens as -1 fav and gets beat up to -3 meaning the bengals are getting pounded. This line makes no sense as it should have opened at 3 and beat up to 3.5-4. Many books have taxed MIA +3 -115 or more. Inviting CIN money IMO.

I'm swimming with dolphins tonight!

 

Squib
I have a different view. Cinn money was pounded early because people knew line would move to 3. 3 is a magical number in football. Now that it is at 3 the books know the Miami money will be coming in and they want to grab the extra -115. Why would you invite Cinn money at -3??? and not -2.5
I'm not a pro. Just my thoughts.

 

They were inviting CIN at -2.5. Books know which way the game will be bet according to the line put out. Opened a -1 to invite CIN money while the trend continues as its bet to -2,-2.5 and -3 at plus money. CIN crushes the jets last week now you look at the low line and figure easy money for the bengals.

We're also due for a SU dog win on Thursday night.

 

Update

Everywhere I look the books are needing MIA big time.

Reinforces my bet after the public smashing they took last week

 

The sportsbooks are in a bad spot.

Only under extreme circumstances will they move off 3. Essentially they are stuck at -3.

Otherwise, this line probably would have moved a couple more points.

 

Sorry to highjack your thread.

I see what you are saying as there are so many ways to look at line movements etc. One of us will be a winner.

Good luck!

 

SAFETY!!!!
Weirdest ending I've seen in a while...

 

The Bungles.

 

It wasn't pretty but the bengals didn't deserve that win. Sloppy play throughout the game for both teams but the Miami defence was the deciding factor.