Derek Stevens bets $20k on Mich St future

Big payday for the owner of The D if Sparty comes thru. So what kind of hedge would you be looking at with this to maximize EV?

 

I would bet $50K on Duke, moneyline at -250.
If Duke wins, you win $20K, and cover your $20K original season bet.
If Michigan St. wins, you are now in for $70K ($20K original bet and lost $50K on Duke bet). But now you are only one win away from collecting $1,020,000!
If this happened, I would then hedge again on the moneyline to cover the $70,000.

Alternatively, you could bet more on Duke so that at least you collect on something if Duke wins.

 

Nice bet. Going into the sweet 16, I put $20.00 On MSU last Weds (15 - 1 pays $320) at the Orleans (before we headed to the airport) and $20.00 on Duke (6-1 pays $140). At least now I know that 1 will make the championship!! 1 day I hope to be able to put 20k ....on ANYTHING!!!

 

The sports book manager had to call Tillman Fretita to approve the bet.

 

You must mean UK. Duke is currently 7/2. So $20k would get you $70k. UK on the other hand was -200 as of Saturday night when I left Vegas.

 

Is there any place where you could get 50k down? And if it were known you were making the hedges would that introduce any problems getting money down? And could the nugget hedge by placing bets at competing books?

 

I meant on the Duke vs Michigan St. game.

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You might need to spread the bet over several different properties.

 

Probably M Resort? They take a crap load of action.

 

A person that wagers $20,000 on a +5000 line doesn't seem like someone who would hedge until the championship game.

 

Wow, I wonder how many drink tickets he got.

 

Bobby Baldwin tailed this bet and plopped down $1 million.

Coincidentally, on April 7, Baldwin is the new owner of the Nugget, and Landry's Inc. went back to serving clam chowder sourdough bread bowls at Claim Jumper. At least in my dreams.

 

Makes much more sense I personally am locked in on Duke -240 for a small bit of change. They're hot and after what they did to Gonzaga and the way they handled some big teams this year like Wisconsin at Kohl Center, I think MSU is going to have to play a flawless game to win outright. The -5 number is scary because MSU is such a wild card because they are not immensely talented, they don't shoot free throws well at 63% as a team and they may be due to run out of gas after a tough road to Final Four through seeds of 10, 3, 2 and 4 but they have the ultimate equalizer in Izzo.

 

You may be correct in your assumption. However, if he doesn't hedge he is an idiot, as he is throwing away free money IMHO.

 

"I bet $1,000 on an NFL game," said Stevens, who attended the University of Michigan but said he also pulls for the Spartans. "I don't do bets this big."

Asked whether he will hedge his bet so he comes out a winner even if the Spartans lose, Stevens said he needs to see how he feels over the next couple of days.

Stevens gives the Golden Nugget the business because Nevada state gaming regulations forbid owners from placing bets at their own establishments.

Miller and Stevens have become good friends over the years, which makes the fact that the Spartans have two games to win it all a bit awkward.

"This would be a massive loss for us," Miller said. "I see days where we lose $10,000 to $30,000, but nothing close to $1 million."

 

Looks like the hedge is on. Stevens took Duke -245 for $49k to win $20k.

https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/583776023264780288

 

I read today that he can not find his betting slip, hopefully he does.

 

I'd assume he has the non-redacted photo that is floating around the internet which has all the information he needs. Sports books are good at honoring tickets if you have copies or information that they can verify. Plus, Golden Nugget knows of the bet so he's good on that front because he is a regular bettor there since he can't bet at the D and they are neighbors haha. If anyone else has the ticket and ends up trying to cash it would have to be the dumbest person on the planet.

The actual ticket is the least of his concerns. He needs to worry about Okafor, Winslow and Jones then if he's lucky enough Towns, Cauley-Stein and the rest of Big Blue Nation.

Really the only ticket worth much in my opinion is the new one for $49k to win $20k. I think he should've hedged $98k to win $40k so he turns a $20k profit and still only risking 10% of his potential win on the future bet.

UPDATED: Turns out that was just an April Fools joke that it was missing. Fell on deaf ears for most sports bettors for the reasons I mentioned above.

 

I don't bet sports so forgive any ignorance here. So if MSU wins then he is down $70k from the bets but is one win away from $1m. If Duke wins he is even and done for the tourney. So then if MSU wins he would need to bet $300k or so on the KY money line (assuming they win) and depending on what the line is to recover his $70k investment and break even on an MSU loss. And bet even more than that to guarantee a win (if KY wins the final) but also limit the upside on the $1m MSU prop bet? Is that even close to being right?

 

That's the dumbest "hedge" I've ever seen! Break even if it wins? Good job there!

 

I like it no matter what the outcome is. Degen it up and going for the big score!