Video Poker Video Poker Question

I have not played much video poker in LV... but I am playing in the contests Videopoker.com is currently running online. I have been playing all of the contests and after about 4 weeks of playing, I still have not had a royal flush... have had a number of them with a deuce... have had several 4 deuces on games where that counts... but no royal flushes at all. Is this unusually bad luck??? I try to play for the royal any time I get a chance... but to no avail. Is it just me or is it that hard to get royal flushes???

 

Flusher just posted he got his first Royal after 19 years.

My 3 year drought just ended in Feb with #17!

I'm speaking of games in Vegas for me, not on-line.

 

How many hours per week do you average?

 

As I remember, you are statistically likely to hit a straight royal (no wild cards) about every 45,000 hands. I figure that is very roughly the number of hands I play in a year, and I have averaged one or so a year since I started playing seriously in 2002. One year I hit four, two on back to back days, and once I went two years without seeing one. I would encourage you to check out VP trainers to be sure you are playing the correct strategy, if you haven't already done that.

 

Been playing a few years, never had one. Me and the GF went to Winstar a few weeks ago, her first time playing and hit one. As I was explaining to her how rare they are, "like seeing bigfoot", she hit another. All the bartenders came over and looked, they were stunned, said they'd only seen one in last 2 years. Then I told her what she just did was like "seeing bigfoot making out with a mermaid". The real kicker - she wasn't max betting on either, lol. Now all she wants to do is play VP, she thinks it's easy...

 

I've been playing for five years and am yet to hit one. My buddy has been playing with me for the same amount of time and has around 10.

It's not bad luck... it's being on the wrong side of variance.

 

That's what I call bad luck.

 

Bad luck makes me depressed. I prefer to call it variance, which doesn't.

 

I've had one royal, remember it vividly, was playing and watching my credits dwindle and said to myself "why do you keep playing this game, you're never gonna get a royal"...a couple hands later, BOOM!

Keep trying.

 

Royals are rare, that's why they pay so well. Sometimes, however, when it rains, it pours. Wife and I have played VP for over a decade. My first Royal was on Jan 3rd of this year. Since then I've hit two more. Wife's first was on Feb 17th, but her's was dealt in Triple Play Ultimate X with 2x on one line, so she got paid for four in one hand.

 

Royals come when they come, and nothing more than the "luck of the draw" will make one pop up. I've had Royals holding just one card, holding two cards, and holding three cards. Sometimes, it seems like for all the times I get dealt 4 to a Royal, that I should get even more ... but only a couple that way.

I had recently gone 6 trips to Vegas, with NO Royals ... but last November, I got three Royals, one each at three separate properties.

There are "odds", and there is simply pure chance with both good & bad luck.

 

As others have alluded to, it's a pretty rare event.

Unfortunately the amount of time you play doesn't make it more likely for you to hit at least one royal, it's the number of hands you've played. If you've played 10,000 hands, not hitting one is expected. After 100,000 hands, then you're a bit unlucky. And things like 3 play count as 3 hands each here. So multiline players may not take as long to get a royal.

Now if you've been playing deuces the entire time (i don't know if you have), you're about 8 times more likely to hit four deuces than a natural royal. Hell, I hit four deuces on nickels this past week by just holding one. Over 18 months w/o a real money royal though, blah. I've probably played at least 50k hands in that frame. Maybe more.

 

My very first royal was in 1994. Since then I have had a total of 51. There have been three times that I hit 2 royals in one day. There was one time I was dealt a royal. I have also had long dry spells between royals. Although I "average" about 2 1/2 royals per year, there have been many years with no royals. Based on the number of hands played, my guess is that I'm close to the 1 in 40,000 odds.

 

The variance for royal flushes has a factor of about three. In other words, while you should expect a royal once every 40,000 hands (give or take depending on the flavor of video poker), you might get three in 40,000 hands and it might also take 120,000 hands to get one. Anything outside that range would be unexpected.

That's certainly within your suggested expectations.

 

Thanks for all the comments... now I feel a lot better about not getting a royal flush. I guess I'll just have to be patient a little longer.
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Update...
I typed the comment above and waited to post it after a few more comments came in... and would you believe... I hit a royal about 4 or 5 hours after I posted my comment... on the very first game I played this afternoon... how ironic!!! Held A-K-J of hearts and got Q-10.
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Anyway, thanks again and due to your comments I won't expect lightning to hit me again for a while... hope it happens next time I'm in Vegas.

 

Congrats! And hopefully it will!

Hitting a real money royal is a lot more fun.

 

While you are "supposed" to hit one every 40,000 hands, I have seen 3 in 3 days and gone 200,000 hands without one. Let's just say it is not unusual to go a very long time without hitting one, but if you play a lot they do happen.

 

Yeah with rare, random events, either of these scenarios are more possible than most people realize. But gamblers tend to focus on the 200k hand drought scenario a lot more.

 

As I was often told ... roulette balls, dice, and playing cards have no memory of past events, and they never studied the exact science of probability. The only thing a human player can do is put in the time, and hope for the percentages to eventually come your way ... with maybe some assistance from lady luck.

 

I hit a royal once, playing WinPoker on my iPhone.

I did hit 2 quads last night in less than 30 minutes!