Table Games Raising/pressing BJ bets

Yes, I know it's been covered, but I'm heading out in a couple weeks, and after every "great" session of blackjack, I feel like I've left a lot on the table. I always increase my bets based on how I feel ... or just some arbitrary decision as I'm winning. I never try to up my bets when I am playing from behind, because I don't chase losses.

I think I play too conservatively when I press my bets, however, so I am looking for a pep talk. Let's just use nice round numbers for the sake of examples. Say I start at a $25 table, how quickly -- and at what level of aggression -- would you press yours? I'm not looking for an answer or a system, just curious how everyone plays it. Even if I get up like $300-400, I generally have trouble taking my bet any higher than the 125-150 level, just because I would hate to give it all back on one of those evil split/double hands.

Someone help me find my peaches so I can come back with an epic story!

 

never mind

 

Haha, yes. That could very easily be the epic story, but as long as it's entertaining, it's worth sharing. Or at least that's what I'm going to tell myself.

I think the "nit" in me doesn't allow any shirt losses. I'm pretty good about locking in wins and limiting my losses, and I never chase losses. Live to fight another day...

 

Ahh, you got me before my edit! I'm glad you understand my comment was in jest.

Anyway, I'm a nit and my bank account thanks me for it.

 

OK, "nit". I know we're not talking the NIT Conference and I don't think you're talking about eggs of head lice :evillaugh
What the heck is a "nit"? Google failed me again.

 

Ha, it's a term common at poker tables to question one's huevos. You might say it is synonymous with a slang term for female genitalia, as well. Hope that helps.

 

I try and keep a soft count. If I see a hand come out with nothing higher than a 8 for everyone. Next hand I pop my bet up 6-7 times. Does it always work nope, but its fun when I hit and everyone else is like nice time to pump it up and hit BJ

 

Basically it's someone who is afraid to gamble.

For instance, I'm happy flat betting at a 5 dollar table and I rarely press.

 

at BJ i play 2 hands and i pretty much press after each time i win both. if i win 1 lose 1, i keep it the same or sometimes reduce it if i had pressed it up pretty high previously. if i lose both, i generally go back to my base bet. i don't usually press as much right at the beginning of a session because i'm trying to feel out how it's going to be.

for me pressing is adding 30-50% of my previous bet.

 

I usually press up a winning hand about 50% of whatever I just won. After I press it up 3 times, I stay at that level for 3 more hands and then start taking my bets down about 50% of whatever is out there until I get back to my original wager. All the experts say that over the long run (and that run is waaay longer than most people imagine), you will lose about the same amount as if you were flat betting the average of your wagers. Maybe so, but my way helps me avoid the feeling of tediousness that a long blackjack session of flat-betting sometimes gives me.

 

I rarely press my bets. When I'm playing blackjack, I prefer the low variance that flat betting, low house edge, and relatively high chance of winning a hand in blackjack provide.

If you press your bet, you're basically reducing the influence of your past win(s) on your overall outcome. That can be a good thing if you continue to defy the odds, but in the long run you're just giving more money to the house than if you flat bet at the lower level.

Of course, if you are counting cards, then this is all moot.

 

Unlike in baccarat - where I have a very rigid betting progression that I rarely deviate from - in BJ it's usually a combination of a variety of factors - the first being that I'm a big believer in luck - I always feel every session has it's own "personality", for lack of a better term - meaning sometimes you're hot & sometimes you're not - so if I'm feeling it's a hot session, regardless of whether or not I've won the previous hand or what the "soft" count is, I will start gradually upping my betting level if I am consistently winning - I always liken my BJ betting pattern to a wave - meaning if I start out at my baseline bet at 2 or 3 units, if I am having a winning session that baseline will gradually move up several units - and if the luck starts to turn, I will gradually move the baseline back down until it hits the level I've established as my baseline for that session - and of course, if the session has been cold from the start, the baseline will essentially remain flat until either my luck picks up or I decide to end the session.

Now, within that wave or trend, I will add on another unit or few here or there if I've won multiple hands in a row - and I also do what I call the "soft" count as well - by which I mean I can do a true count if I'm sitting home with no distractions - but in the casino I find it harder to do, but I still try to at least pay attention to and be conscious to what cards have come out - and that will also influence whether I pull up or down by a unit or two within my larger overall betting trend.

 

My pressing is very much on feel. In general after 3 strait wins my bet generally has doubled. After 3-5 more it has doubled again. How much I go down depends on how I'm feeling at the table. After a long streak it takes me ~3 losses in a row to get back to my base bet.

Nothing is really going to help with the feeling that you have a large bet out there and the random splitting 8s 4 times occurs. I will say that this is the opportunity that you are really wanting though. I find BJ to be a game where your losses/wins can really be totaled up by the 5-10 larger hands of a trip. While a dealer showing a 6 and getting a 21 is awful, the odds are in your favor on that particular hand. If you win that hand, you are probably up 6-8X your initial buyin. If you lose, you are most likely down to half your buy in. In one case you just made your trip, in the other, you are exactly where you would be if you had been flat betting normally.

 

I am extremely methodical in how I press. I essentially use a linear system.

I start off with a $200 bankroll, and start with a $20 bet (or maybe $100, with $10 bets). If I dip into negative territory, I will start pressing as soon as 1) my bankroll is at $210 or higher AND 2) I have won two hands in a row (not including split hands). At this first increment I increase the bet to $30

Once I hit $250, I bet a minimum of $30, and I will go up to $40 if I again have won two in a row. From $250, I up it $10 for each $50 increment in my bankroll. When/if I am up to the point where I have over $500, I kind of lose track of where I am and sort of guess. $600 bankroll is the $100 bet point in this system, but once my bankroll is up by a few hundred I start to throw caution to the wind a bit and depart from the $10 per $50 won line.

Most importantly, if I lose a hand and my bankroll is $300 or more (i.e., I am up at least $100) after the loss, I always walk away. Otherwise, I stay until I lose the whole $200.

It's conservative, and probably a bit obsessive, but it works for me.

 

I absolutely agree on this. One thing that I, as a "low roller" definitely agree with the "high rollers" on, is that a couple memorable split/double hands can make or break your entire trip.

I'm fine losing those kinds of hands, because I know the odds are in my favor to win them, it just hurts to go from doubling or tripling your buy-in over the course of a couple hours to being down after one hand.

I guess much like poker players, I tend to remember the painful losses more than the lucky wins, but I do tend to remember the winning sessions more than the losing sessions. That says something about me, I'm sure ... just not sure what.

Thanks for the pep talk. You sound just like the guy on my shoulder whispering good advice in my ear and trying to drown out the guy on the other shoulder pressuring me to order more drinks

 

This sounds fairly reasonable, and definitely obsessive at the same time. My only issue with applying it personally is that you don't seem to give yourself much margin for handling a bad run or a bad shoe, prior to advancing into positive territory. One could easily be negative 10 or 15 hands over a shoe or two, I think. I'll let the math nerds crunch the numbers.

I presume you play many short sessions and try to lock in small profits on the upside and limit yourself to the $100 or $200 loss on the downside? Obviously your betting pattern allows for those epic runs where you turn $200 into $3000 when the cards cooperate, too.

One other question: let's say you make it to the $600 level, and you're betting $100, are you willing to split/double/resplit if necessary, or do you limit yourself to the $100 bet to make sure you lock in profits either way?

 

Sure I can have a bad stretch and lose 10 or more in a row -- I have sat down with my $200 and promptly gone 0 for 10. Usually, however, if I lose the $200 it takes a pretty long time. I would say that in a majority of cases where I walk away a winner, at some point my bankroll drops below $100. It is not that unusual for me to put my last gas money down, win the hand, and then rally back and walk away a winner. This is what makes it fun for me. On the other hand, I have built my bankroll to over $400, split and doubled down and lost, put myself back below $300 again, and then promptly lost it all. This is rare but it's happened at least once. Often when I lose I am at some point at the cusp of going permanently over $300 and then lose it all.

Yes, the idea is that I get a lot of small wins (probably average about $150?) and hopefully in total they exceed the times I zero out (-$200) over the course of a trip. One bigger win ($300 or more) can make a big difference.

This is really NOT a strategy if you are looking for a $3000 win from a $200 bankroll. In my experience with this, starting with $200, an epic win is $600. The best I've ever done was on a computer game, and that was over $1000. Because it is still a fairly linear system, I think winning more than that is virtually impossible, but one can deviate to something more exponential when your bankroll is at $500 or $600 and permit a much bigger win, I suppose (or giving a lot of it back).

As I mentioned before, the sessions are often not that short. It may take hours to lose or win. Smallish wins of course can come pretty quickly.

I am pretty strict about following the basic strategy. If the book says I double down/resplit, etc., and I have the chips, I do it. I'm not saying I would never deviate from that, but it's as strong a rule I have. When you're on the edge of walking away the book doesn't mean that much, but I tend to follow it to the end.

And just to emphasize: this is not a strategy to beat the house. It's a system in my brain to manage my bankroll in a way that works for my personal style. In the end, I expect the house to take my money from me at whatever the house advantage is plus tips. The big negative is that I can dig myself a hole by losing the $200 first time I sit at a table, and I keep my losses for a three day trip at three figures, so if that happens on day one, no more table games for the rest of the day.

It also works for me because my friends tend to spend all of their time in the sports book, so I go and hang out with them after I walk away. Or go get a bite to eat or do something else. If you walk away and have nothing to do but find another table, it kind of defeats the purpose. The crux of this "strategy" is to walk away a winner, but more importantly, not spend all of your time at the table!

Because I am planning on more craps this next trip, and less blackjack (I am tired of having to search for a decent BJ table on the strip) I am attempting to adapt it to craps, playing the pass line and odds. I am pretty sure that the iPhone app I'm using is blowing smoke at me (I'm up like $3800 in pretend money), but so far it seems to "work".