Video Poker So VP players...Would you play this?

http://www.vegaschatter.com/story/2015/3/30/20165/8903/vegas-travel/Mega+Progressive+Video+Poker+At+Golden+Nugget+For+April



I do not play the multi-line VP that much. Just curious. Also curious how the math would work on the Mega Progressive for the overall return on a machine.

 

Someone reported to vpFREE2 that the games had paytables such as 8/5 DB (94.19%). I'll pass on this one.

http://www.vpfree2.com/casino/golden-nugget-hotel-casino/comments

 

Yeah, I can't see the paytables being worth it. Probably better than the Megabucks though. They'll likely be popular.

 

Return = Amount you can win divided by the probability of the event occurring

If the prize is $200K and the odds are roughly 1 in a million it'll happen then it'll add 0.2% to the machine's payback, but then you have to subtract 0.04% because this prize will replace the normal 10x royal flush... so at $200K the jackpot would add 0.16% to the machine's payback.

Thats where you'll have to look at the game's actual payback versus a machine with full payback - the adding 0.16% to the payback might sound good, but not if you give up 2-3% in the first place because the machine isn't full payback to begin with.

 

Last I looked at the Golden Nugget, the regular pay schedules weren't very good. If it's the same as a single line and I'm playing there, then I'd play the three lines because that what I do. Except I don't play at the Nugget because I play where there's full play.

 

Thanks for the math, I am not great at that! I figured the paytables would be shitty.

I wonder if it will be slot like where you must get the royal on a certain hand with the 10X?

 

The article says to win you have to hit a royal flush with the 10x multiplier and be playing the correct denomination ($1)

 

I saw that. I was just wondering if it mattered which of the 3 hands you hit it in. Like some slots pay the jackpot only on the 9th line.

 

If a 10x dollar royal pays $40000 normally it's really not much of a "jackpot" bump in my opinion.

 

Yeah, sad they stepped that low on this. You can't even offer those paytables on normal STP machines!!! So I definitely wouldn't play it. But if the paytable was the same as the regular game...might as well play it.

As for the return boost from the progressive, it's not that much. The probability of a Royal varies by the game, but for these two games, it's really close to 1 in 40k. Probability of a 10X, 1 in 375.

So the probability of hitting the progressive, 1/40000 x 1/375 = 1 in 15 million approximately.

But if you would be so lucky to get a dealt 10X Royal, you only get paid the progressive once, so you have to factor out the other 2 dealt royals for the progressive chances, so the probability of you getting a progressive win on a per line basis is about...
(1/40000 - 2/649740) / 375 = 1 in 17106224

leading to an overall chance of 3 in 17106224 or about 1 in 5.7 million "rounds" played.

And how much extra does the progressive pay in single line bets ($1.50 per line) before factoring in the meter increase? ($50000 - $10000) / $1.50 = 26666.67 bets

Extra return from progressive base = 26666.67 / 17106224 = 0.0015589 = 0.156%

 

Math is hard.

Wow thanks.