Chuck2009x

03-06-2011, 05:17 AM

The one issue I can't seem to get my head around it why you shouldn't bet against a long streak. I went back and looked at the Wizard's appendix table where he shows the probability of streaks (ie. basically starts out at 50% on hand 1 and gets cut in half on each succeeding hand).

What he doesn't state clearly, but what I interpret after seeing other references, is that those probabilities apply BEFORE hand 1 is dealt.

In other words, if you were able to place a bet up front that the next 7 hands wouldn't be all Banker (or all Player), you would win that bet 99% of the time. However, once a streak of 6 has been established, the probability that it will continue on the next hand is still 45-45-10, same as any other hand.

I get that mathematically, but it somehow still feels right to push out big on the other side once a streak reaches 6 or 7. I did that on my last trip and only had to martingale a loss once. The toughest decision for me was when a streak was established, I bet the other way, and then comes a tie. In all ofthose cases, I left the bet up and won.

The longest streak I saw last trip was 9 Banker, and I was playing at only Banker at the time. I basically always bet Banker except when it establishes a long streak. I did see a few way lopsided shoes on the trip, usually when I was just passing by a table, and they were mostly in favor of Player.

Do you bet against long streaks? If you don't, is it because of the math, or because you subscribe to the "strong" Banker or Player theory?

What he doesn't state clearly, but what I interpret after seeing other references, is that those probabilities apply BEFORE hand 1 is dealt.

In other words, if you were able to place a bet up front that the next 7 hands wouldn't be all Banker (or all Player), you would win that bet 99% of the time. However, once a streak of 6 has been established, the probability that it will continue on the next hand is still 45-45-10, same as any other hand.

I get that mathematically, but it somehow still feels right to push out big on the other side once a streak reaches 6 or 7. I did that on my last trip and only had to martingale a loss once. The toughest decision for me was when a streak was established, I bet the other way, and then comes a tie. In all ofthose cases, I left the bet up and won.

The longest streak I saw last trip was 9 Banker, and I was playing at only Banker at the time. I basically always bet Banker except when it establishes a long streak. I did see a few way lopsided shoes on the trip, usually when I was just passing by a table, and they were mostly in favor of Player.

Do you bet against long streaks? If you don't, is it because of the math, or because you subscribe to the "strong" Banker or Player theory?