NBA Tonight - An Interesting Scenario

[blackjack]

Because of the way the NBA stuctures it's playoff seeding, there is a really interesting scenario unfolding tonight. Would a team actually tank on purpose? You tell me.

LA Clippers at Memphis

Winner of this game will play at Dallas (60-21) in the 1st round of the playoffs and the loser gets home court advantage against Denver (44-36). How is this possible? In the NBA, the three division winners automatically get the top three seeds but home court advantage is determined by record. Denver gets the 3rd seed because they will finish 1st in the Northwest division despite having a worse record than Memphis (47-33) and the Clippers (46-34), therefore the loser of tonights matchup will get to host the Nuggets in round one. Dallas on the other hand gets the 4th seed despite having the 2nd best record in the West because they will finish behind San Antonio in thier division. Winner tonight gets to travel to Dallas for round one.

Memphis has been on a roll winning 6 of thier last 7 games and going 7-0 against the spread. The Clippers have been tanking lately. They are 2-4 both straight up and against the spread in thier last six games. It would appear that L.A. is laying down but you can't tell me that Memphis isn't staring at that 6th seed (who wouldn't face the Mavs or Spurs until the finals) and drooling :drooling: . Memphis is a combined 1-7 against Dallas and San Antonio this year.

Expect the NBA officials to be watching this game close.

"The NBA’s competition committee has said it will be monitoring the contest to ensure maximum effort is given." - Jeff Mason covers.com

"Adequate attention has been focused on this issue, for which we're appreciative" - David Stern NBA Comissioner

"The league needs to step in and take away any perceived incentive to lose...I think that just the idea that you could be better served to lose rather than win probably needs to be taken care of." Jeff Van Gundy Houston Rockets Coach

How would you bet it...or would you?

The average gambler might be better served just sitting back and watching this one play out. The Clippers have been resting thier starters lately which could account for thier record as of late. Memphis, on the other hand, has been sticking to the normal workload. I'm going to add my two cents with the disclaimer that I really don't know my arse from a basketball here & I'm going with my gut. Right now the Clippers are 7.5 point underdogs & the over/under is at 183. I feel that with the NBA watching closely the Clippers will cover. Games that Memphis play at home tend to be lower scoring than thier road games and if both teams do indeed intend to lose, then the under would seem to be the bet. However, I'm leaning towards the over for the same reason as above. There you go - Clippers plus the points & over 183. Now bet the opposite & you'll probably be a winner. :rolleyes2:

[blackjack]

Well the over jumped to 184.5 for reasons unknown. Perhaps the thinking is that the Clippers aren't going to play any defense and Memphis will continue to play-to-win and score BIG. This would blow my Clippers bet. Memphis, however, plans to sit all-star Pau Gasol and his team high 20.4 ppg, for much of the game tonight. If this turns into a bench matchup, the under might be the better play. Here is what a Memphis paper is saying about tonights game:
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Fratello said he's proud of the way his team has handled the stretch run
-- playing hard into the final week.

"We're not trying to slow down," Gasol said. "We're trying to keep our minds in a competitive mode. We'll face whoever we have to face."

Several Grizzlies were aware of the Clippers' game Sunday with the Seattle SuperSonics. That the Clippers appeared to be less concerned with winning and more interested in resting key players became evident.

"But we've got to keep with what we're doing," Battier said. "We're not the Spurs or the Pistons. We can't turn it off like that. We have to stay sharp."

Teammate Mike Miller sounded as though not trying to win any game is a sin.

"As long as I've played the game, I've never tried to lose a game. That's not going to change," Miller said when asked about tonight's matchup with the Clippers. "You just can't turn it on when you get to the playoffs."
------

Mark Cuban had some interesting comments on his blog as well:

"Isn't the goal of the whole season to gain homecourt advantage for as many playoff series as possible? How much fun would it be to see the teams trying to lose games? Or more to the point, lying about trying to win games, but "resting" their players. Remember, homecourt isn't just about having a better chance to win with your fans behind you. It's an opportunity for teams to make more money. If this isn't a reason to change the playoff series seeding right now, I don't know what is."

Now I don't know what to do. :bang: Maybe I'll look at betting some baseball tonight. :rolleyes2:

[blackjack]

The Portland Trailblazers have lost 18 of their last 19 as they continue their quest for the most ping pong balls (NBA draft lottery system). The books wouldn't even post a line on last night's game against the Warriors.

You know the Blazers would love to see area favorite Adam Morrison in a Portland uniform if he declares for the draft as expected.

Hmmmm - as a Cavalier fan, this sounds very familiar. :rolleyes2:

[blackjack]

The Clippers are not taking the same approach about the game as the Grizzlies:

"This isn't our fault, we're not doing anything wrong, but the league has put us in this position," co-captain Elton Brand said Monday after practice. "The league has put people in position to have to answer these questions about seeding, first-round matchups and all of that.

"All I know is that we get the home-court [advantage] if we're sixth, and we don't get it if we're fifth. I know something doesn't seem right about that, but that's just the way it is, and we're working under the rules."

"We've got to be sixth to have the home court, and we'd like to have the home court, so then we need to finish sixth. It's that simple,"co-captain Sam Cassell said. "You could say that isn't right, but life isn't right, and this is how the minds of the NBA made it with this alignment."

The Clippers won the season series against Denver, 3-1, and are 0-3 against Dallas.

"Obviously, we would rather not play Dallas, and I think everyone knows that," center Chris Kaman said. "But there's too much pride on this team to just be dropping games. I know it looks bad because of the way we lost last night, I know what it looks like, but I know for a fact it wasn't intentional."

[blackjack]

Well I've successfully over-analyzed the shiat out of this and I finally placed my bet (like anyone cares :rolleyes2: ). I went with under 184.5. The line moved to Memphis -8 but I just can't pull the trigger knowing that this will most likely turn into a bench matchup. My first thought was to take the over just because the NBA would not want to draw attention to one or both teams throwing bricks on purpose. However, I just can't see this as being a fast paced high scoring affair given the situation.

Now please excuse me while I pray for no overtime. :D

[doctor_al]

Here's my assessment:

It's the Clippers.

Whatever is the most damaging outcome to the clippers, is the most likely. And if they can scr*w you over in the process, figure that in too.

[Jimbucc]

Ron, you had it right the first time. There you go - Clippers plus the points & over 183. :nono: Betting 101 go with your first instincts.

[blackjack]

I feel that with the NBA watching closely the Clippers will cover... I'm leaning towards the over for the same reason as above. There you go - Clippers plus the points & over 183.
After further review...
I went with under 184.5
Final score: Memphis 101 Clippers 95 :haha: :bang:

Yes, I succeeded in over-analyzing myself from two winners to one loser. Good thing I bet the Tribe as well (15-1 winners :banana: )

Man did the Clippers play that right. They score 33 points in the first half & probably get a call from Stern at halftime saying at least make it look good. Come out & score 32 points in the 3rd quarter, come from 20 points down to lose by 6, cover the spread, & lock up home court advantage against Denver. :nworthy:

[doctor_al]

That playoff system is the dumbest thing ever. Lower seed gets HFA over higher seed? Too many teams in as well, but as if any owner will give back those gate receipts...

[blackjack]

That playoff system is the dumbest thing ever. Lower seed gets HFA over higher seed? Too many teams in as well, but as if any owner will give back those gate receipts...

I couldn't agree more. They will change it starting next year because of what happened last night. There is an owners meeting next week to discuss the playoff structure.